DOES EDUCATION INVESTMENT YIELD LONG-RUN RETURNS? EVIDENCE FROM TÜRKİYE

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2, 97 - 111, 30.12.2025

Pelin Sahin , Hakkı Kutay Bolkol

https://doi.org/10.54860/beyder.1799027

Öz

Reaping the benefits of educational investments takes time. In this paper, we investigate the long-run returns of public education investment for the Turkish economy by conducting a time-series analysis for the 1970-2021 period. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach is employed for empirical analysis due to its suitability for analyses with limited observations. This approach also enables us to separate the long- and short-run results, which is important for analyses including a long-time span. Analysis results report the existence of a long-run relationship. In the short-term, there are potential negative effects, signaling certain initial disruptions. However, in the long-term, the effect turns positive. Furthermore, in the case of any divergence from the long-run equilibrium, there is an adjustment process in the next period to restore equilibrium. Our findings highlight the importance of long-term commitment to education investment despite possible short-run trade-offs. Therefore, short-run disruptions can be seen as transitional costs in achieving long-term benefits.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Education Investment , Time Series Analysis , Türkiye , ARDL Approach

EĞİTİM YATIRIMLARI UZUN VADELİ GETİRİ SAĞLAR MI? TÜRKİYE’DEN KANITLAR

Öz

Eğitim yatırımlarının meyvelerini toplamak zaman almaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 1970-2021 dönemi için zaman serisi analizi uygulanarak kamu eğitim yatırımlarının Türkiye ekonomisine uzun vadeli getirisinin varlığı analiz edilmektedir. Ampirik yöntem olarak, sınırlı gözlem sayıları içeren analizlere uygunluğu nedeniyle Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Model (ARDL) yaklaşımı tercih edilmiştir. Ayrıca, bu yöntem uzun zaman dilimini kapsayan analizlerde önemli olan kısa ve uzun dönem etkilerin ayrıştırılmasına olanak tanımaktadır. Analiz sonuçları, seriler arasında uzun dönem ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Kısa vade sonuçları, eğitim harcamalarının ekonomik performansı negatif yönde etkileme potansiyeli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ancak uzun dönemdeki etkinin pozitif olduğu bulunmuştur. Ayrıca uzun dönem dengesinden bir sapma olduğunda, bir sonraki dönemde bir uyum süreci gerçekleşmektedir. Analiz sonucu, olası kısa dönemli negatif etkiye rağmen uzun dönemde eğitim harcamalarında ısrar etmenin önemli olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Bu nedenle, kısa vadeli aksaklıklar uzun vadeli kazanımlara ulaşma sürecinde karşılaşılan geçici maliyetler olarak değerlendirilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Eğitim Yatırımları , Zaman Serisi Analizi , ARDL Yaklaşımı , Türkiye

Kaynakça

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