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ANALYSIS OF THE STABILITY OF INFLATION IN INFLATION TARGETING COUNTRIES VIA CONTROL CHARTS

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 111 - 123, 01.06.2010

Öz

While inflation targeting (IT) has been adopted by a few countries as a monetary policy tool chiefly
for inflation fighting purposes, the debate relative to its effect on making a difference on actual inflation level of
the adopting country has been waging with no end in sight. A number of authors have attempted to address the
issue with usually qualitative means. In this paper, we analyze the stability of inflation levels before and after the
adoption of IT with the help of ‘control charts.’ Control charts tell us when and in what fashion processes deviate
from stability, allowing us to take timely and appropriate action to keep the process on course. Our findings
show that the instability in inflation levels has been reduced in the post adopted era.

Kaynakça

  • Alt, F. (1985). “Multivariate Quality Control,” Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences, Vol. 6, edited by Johnson, N. L. and Kotz, S., John Wiley, New York.
  • Bardsen, G., Jansen, E. S. and Nymoen, R. (2003). “Econometric Inflation Targeting,” Econometrics Journal, (December), 6, 2, 430-461.
  • Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (2001). “Primer on Inflation Targeting,” <http://www.bsp.gov.ph/resources/other_docs/inflation_targeting.htm#top> Accessed November 27, 2005.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (2003). “A Perspective on Inflation Targeting,” Business Economics, (July), 38, 3, 7-15.
  • Bodden, K. M. and Rigdon, S. E. (1999). “A Program for Approximating the In-Control ARL for the MEWMA Chart,” Journal of Quality Technology, 31, 120–123.
  • Crosier, R. B. (1988). “Multivariate Generalizations of Cumulative Sum Quality Control Schemes,”
  • Crowder, S. V. (1987a). “A Simple Method for Studying Run-Length Distributions of Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Charts,” Technometrics, 29, 401–407.
  • Crowder, S. V. (1987b). “Computation of ARL for Combined Individual Measurement and Moving Range Charts,” Journal of Quality Technology, 19, 98–102.
  • Crowder, S. V. (1989). “Design of Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Schemes,” Journal of Quality Technology, 21, 155–162.
  • Crowder, S. V. and Hamilton, M. (1992). “An EWMA for Monitoring a Process Standard Deviation,” Journal of Quality Technology, 24, 12–21.
  • Duncan, A. J. (1986). Quality Control and Industrial Statistics, 5th ed., IRWIN, Homewood, IL.
  • Ewan, W. D. (1963). “When and How to Use Cu-sum Charts,” Technometrics, 5, 1–22.
  • Gan, F. F. (1991). “An Optimal Design of CUSUM Quality Control Charts,” Journal of Quality Technology, 23, 279–286.
  • Gan, F. F. (1993). “An Optimal Design of CUSUM Quality Control Charts for Binomial Counts,” Journal of Applied Statistics, 20, 445–460.
  • Genc, I. H. (2009). “A Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Inflation Targeting in Selected Countries,” International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 24: 237-241, (February).
  • Genc, I. H., Lee, M., Rodriguez, C. O. and Lutz, Z. (2007). “Time Series Analysis Of Inflation Targeting In Selected Countries,” Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 10, 1, 15–27, (March).
  • Gitlow, H., Oppenheim, A., and Oppenheim R. (1994). Quality Control and Management: Tools and Methods for Improvement, 2nd ed., IRWIN, Homewood, IL.
  • Hawkins, D. M. (1981). “A Cusum for a Scale Parameter,” Journal of Quality Technology, 13, 228–231.
  • Hawkins, D. M. (1991). “Multivariate Quality Control Based on Regression-Adjusted Variables,” Technometrics, 33, 61–75.
  • Hawkins, D. M. (1993a). “Cumulative Sum Control Charting: An Underutilized SPC Tool,” Quality Engineering, 5, 463–467.
  • Hawkins, D. M. (1993b). “Regression Adjustment for Variables in Multivariate Quality Control,” Journal of
  • Hicks, C. R. (1955). “Some Applications of Hotelling's T,” Industrial Quality Control, 11, 27–39.
  • Honda, Y. (2000). “Some Tests on the Effects of Inflation Targeting in New Zealand, Canada, and the UK,” Economics Letters, 66, 1-6.
  • Hotelling, H. (1947). “Multivariate Quality Control,” Techniques of Statistical Analysis, C. Eisenhart, M. Hastay, and W. A. Wallis, Eds., McGraw-Hill, New York.
  • Huh, C. (1997). “Inflation Targeting,” Economic Letter (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), (February 07).
  • Hunter, J. S. (1986). “The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average,” Journal of Quality Technology, 18, 203– 210.
  • Jackson, J. E. (1956). “Quality Control Methods for Two Related Variables,” Industrial Quality Control, 12, 21– 40.
  • Jackson, J. E. (1959). “Quality Control Methods for Several Related Variables,” Technometrics, 1, 34–52.
  • Jackson, J. E. (1985). “Multivariate Quality Control,” Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods, 14, 2657–2688.
  • Johnson, D. R. (2002). “The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 1521–1538.
  • Johnson, N. L. and Leone, F. C. (1962a). “Cumulative Sum Control Charts – Mathematical Principles Applied to Their Construction and Use,” Part I, Industrial Quality Control, 18, 15–21.
  • Johnson, N. L. and Leone, F. C. (1962b). “Cumulative Sum Control Charts – Mathematical Principles Applied to Their Construction and Use,” Part II, Industrial Quality Control, 18, 29–36.
  • Johnson, N. L. and Leone, F. C. (1962c). “Cumulative Sum Control Charts – Mathematical Principles Applied to Their Construction and Use,” Part III, Industrial Quality Control, 19, 22–28.
  • Kadioglu, F., N. Ozdemir and G. Yilmaz (2000). “Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries,” Discussion Paper, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey; (September).
  • Lowry, C. A., Woodall, W. H., Champ, C. W., and Rigdon, S. E. (1992). “A Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Chart,” Technometrics, 34, 46–53.
  • Lowry, C. A. and Montgomery, D. C. (1995). “A Review of Multivariate Control Charts,” IIE Transactions, 27, 800–810.
  • Lucas, J. M. (1976). “The Design and Use of V-Mask Control Schemes,” Journal of Quality Technology, 8, 1– 12.
  • Lucas, J. M. (1985). “Counted Data CUSUM’s,” Technometrics, 27, 129–144.
  • Lucas, J. M. and Crosier, R. B. (1982). “Fast Initial Response for CUSUM Quality Control Schemes,”
  • Lucas, J. M. and Saccucci, M. S. (1990). “Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Schemes: Properties and Enhancements,” Technometrics, 32, 1–12.
  • MacGregor, J. F. and Harris, T. J. (1993). “The Exponentially Weighted Moving Variance,” Journal of Quality Technology, 25, 106–118.
  • Mason, R. L., Tracy, N. D., and Young, J. C. (1992). “Multivariate Control Charts for Individual Observations,” Journal of Quality Technology, 24, 88–95.
  • Mason, R. L., Tracy, N. D., and Young, J. C. (1995). “Decomposition of T2 for Multivariate Control Chart Interpretation,” Journal of Quality Technology, 27, 99–108.
  • Meyer, L. H. (2004). “Practical Problems and Obstacles to Inflation Targeting,” Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis), (July/August), 86, 4, 151-160.
  • Minella, A., P. S. de Freitas, I. Goldfajn and M. K. Muinhos (2003). “Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 22, 7, 1015- 1040 December).
  • Mishkin, F. S. (2007). “Inflation Dynamics,” Working Paper (NBER), No. 13147, (June).
  • Montgomery, D. C. (2005). Introduction to Statistical Quality Control, 5th ed. John Wiley, New York, NY.
  • Nelson, L. S. (1982). “Control Charts for Individual Measurements,” Journal of Quality Technology, 14, 172– 174.
  • Nelson, L. S. (1984). “The Shewhart Control Chart – Tests for Special Causes,” Journal of Quality Technology, 16, 237–239.
  • Ng, C. H. and Case, K. E. (1989). “Development and Evaluation of Control Charts Using Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages,” Journal of Quality Technology, 21, 242–250.
  • Page, E. S. (1954). “Continuous Inspection Schemes,” Biometrika, 41, 100–114.
  • Page, E. S. (1961). “Cumulative Sum Charts,” Technometrics, 3, 1–10.
  • Piger, J. M. and Thornton, D. L. (2004). “Inflation Targeting: Prospects and Problems,” Editors’ Introduction, Review (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), (July/August), 86, 4, 3-13.
  • Pignatiello, J. J., Jr. and Runger, G. C. (1990). “Comparison of Multivariate CUSUM Charts,” Journal of
  • Prins, J. and Mader, D. (1997-98). “Multivariate Control Charts for Grouped and Individual Observations,” Quality Engineering, 10, 49–57.
  • Roberts, S. W. (1959). “Control Chart Tests Based on Geometric Moving Averages,” Technometrics, 1, 239– 250.
  • Schilling, E. G. and Nelson, P. R. (1976). “The Effect of Nonnormality on the Control Limits of Charts,” Journal of Quality Technology, 8, 183–187.
  • Shewhart, W. A. (1926). “Quality Control Charts,” Bell System Technology Journal, 5, 593–602.
  • Shewhart, W. A. (1931). Economic Control of Quality Manufactured Product, D. Van Nostrand Company, Inc., New York, NY. Republished in 1980 by the American Society of Quality Control.
  • Shewhart, W. A., Deming, W. E. (Eds) (1939). Statistical Method from The Viewpoint of Quality Control, Dover Publications, New York, NY.
  • Vardeman, S. B. and Jobe, J. M. (1998). Statistical Quality Assurance Methods for Engineers, John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY.
  • Vargas N., J. A. (2003). “Robust Estimation in Multivariate Control Charts for Individual Observations,” Journal of Quality Technology, 35, 367–376.
  • Western Electric (1956). Statistical Quality Control Handbook, Western Electric Corporation, Indianapolis, Ind.
  • Woodall, W. H. and Adams, B. M. (1993). “The Statistical Design of CUSUM Charts,” Quality Engineering, 5, 559–570.
  • Woodford, M. (2004). “Inflation Targeting: A Theoretical Evaluation,” Review (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), (July/August), 86, 4, 15-41.

ANALYSIS OF THE STABILITY OF INFLATION IN INFLATION TARGETING COUNTRIES VIA CONTROL CHARTS

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 111 - 123, 01.06.2010

Öz

.

Kaynakça

  • Alt, F. (1985). “Multivariate Quality Control,” Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences, Vol. 6, edited by Johnson, N. L. and Kotz, S., John Wiley, New York.
  • Bardsen, G., Jansen, E. S. and Nymoen, R. (2003). “Econometric Inflation Targeting,” Econometrics Journal, (December), 6, 2, 430-461.
  • Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (2001). “Primer on Inflation Targeting,” <http://www.bsp.gov.ph/resources/other_docs/inflation_targeting.htm#top> Accessed November 27, 2005.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (2003). “A Perspective on Inflation Targeting,” Business Economics, (July), 38, 3, 7-15.
  • Bodden, K. M. and Rigdon, S. E. (1999). “A Program for Approximating the In-Control ARL for the MEWMA Chart,” Journal of Quality Technology, 31, 120–123.
  • Crosier, R. B. (1988). “Multivariate Generalizations of Cumulative Sum Quality Control Schemes,”
  • Crowder, S. V. (1987a). “A Simple Method for Studying Run-Length Distributions of Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Charts,” Technometrics, 29, 401–407.
  • Crowder, S. V. (1987b). “Computation of ARL for Combined Individual Measurement and Moving Range Charts,” Journal of Quality Technology, 19, 98–102.
  • Crowder, S. V. (1989). “Design of Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Schemes,” Journal of Quality Technology, 21, 155–162.
  • Crowder, S. V. and Hamilton, M. (1992). “An EWMA for Monitoring a Process Standard Deviation,” Journal of Quality Technology, 24, 12–21.
  • Duncan, A. J. (1986). Quality Control and Industrial Statistics, 5th ed., IRWIN, Homewood, IL.
  • Ewan, W. D. (1963). “When and How to Use Cu-sum Charts,” Technometrics, 5, 1–22.
  • Gan, F. F. (1991). “An Optimal Design of CUSUM Quality Control Charts,” Journal of Quality Technology, 23, 279–286.
  • Gan, F. F. (1993). “An Optimal Design of CUSUM Quality Control Charts for Binomial Counts,” Journal of Applied Statistics, 20, 445–460.
  • Genc, I. H. (2009). “A Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Inflation Targeting in Selected Countries,” International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 24: 237-241, (February).
  • Genc, I. H., Lee, M., Rodriguez, C. O. and Lutz, Z. (2007). “Time Series Analysis Of Inflation Targeting In Selected Countries,” Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 10, 1, 15–27, (March).
  • Gitlow, H., Oppenheim, A., and Oppenheim R. (1994). Quality Control and Management: Tools and Methods for Improvement, 2nd ed., IRWIN, Homewood, IL.
  • Hawkins, D. M. (1981). “A Cusum for a Scale Parameter,” Journal of Quality Technology, 13, 228–231.
  • Hawkins, D. M. (1991). “Multivariate Quality Control Based on Regression-Adjusted Variables,” Technometrics, 33, 61–75.
  • Hawkins, D. M. (1993a). “Cumulative Sum Control Charting: An Underutilized SPC Tool,” Quality Engineering, 5, 463–467.
  • Hawkins, D. M. (1993b). “Regression Adjustment for Variables in Multivariate Quality Control,” Journal of
  • Hicks, C. R. (1955). “Some Applications of Hotelling's T,” Industrial Quality Control, 11, 27–39.
  • Honda, Y. (2000). “Some Tests on the Effects of Inflation Targeting in New Zealand, Canada, and the UK,” Economics Letters, 66, 1-6.
  • Hotelling, H. (1947). “Multivariate Quality Control,” Techniques of Statistical Analysis, C. Eisenhart, M. Hastay, and W. A. Wallis, Eds., McGraw-Hill, New York.
  • Huh, C. (1997). “Inflation Targeting,” Economic Letter (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), (February 07).
  • Hunter, J. S. (1986). “The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average,” Journal of Quality Technology, 18, 203– 210.
  • Jackson, J. E. (1956). “Quality Control Methods for Two Related Variables,” Industrial Quality Control, 12, 21– 40.
  • Jackson, J. E. (1959). “Quality Control Methods for Several Related Variables,” Technometrics, 1, 34–52.
  • Jackson, J. E. (1985). “Multivariate Quality Control,” Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods, 14, 2657–2688.
  • Johnson, D. R. (2002). “The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 1521–1538.
  • Johnson, N. L. and Leone, F. C. (1962a). “Cumulative Sum Control Charts – Mathematical Principles Applied to Their Construction and Use,” Part I, Industrial Quality Control, 18, 15–21.
  • Johnson, N. L. and Leone, F. C. (1962b). “Cumulative Sum Control Charts – Mathematical Principles Applied to Their Construction and Use,” Part II, Industrial Quality Control, 18, 29–36.
  • Johnson, N. L. and Leone, F. C. (1962c). “Cumulative Sum Control Charts – Mathematical Principles Applied to Their Construction and Use,” Part III, Industrial Quality Control, 19, 22–28.
  • Kadioglu, F., N. Ozdemir and G. Yilmaz (2000). “Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries,” Discussion Paper, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey; (September).
  • Lowry, C. A., Woodall, W. H., Champ, C. W., and Rigdon, S. E. (1992). “A Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Chart,” Technometrics, 34, 46–53.
  • Lowry, C. A. and Montgomery, D. C. (1995). “A Review of Multivariate Control Charts,” IIE Transactions, 27, 800–810.
  • Lucas, J. M. (1976). “The Design and Use of V-Mask Control Schemes,” Journal of Quality Technology, 8, 1– 12.
  • Lucas, J. M. (1985). “Counted Data CUSUM’s,” Technometrics, 27, 129–144.
  • Lucas, J. M. and Crosier, R. B. (1982). “Fast Initial Response for CUSUM Quality Control Schemes,”
  • Lucas, J. M. and Saccucci, M. S. (1990). “Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Schemes: Properties and Enhancements,” Technometrics, 32, 1–12.
  • MacGregor, J. F. and Harris, T. J. (1993). “The Exponentially Weighted Moving Variance,” Journal of Quality Technology, 25, 106–118.
  • Mason, R. L., Tracy, N. D., and Young, J. C. (1992). “Multivariate Control Charts for Individual Observations,” Journal of Quality Technology, 24, 88–95.
  • Mason, R. L., Tracy, N. D., and Young, J. C. (1995). “Decomposition of T2 for Multivariate Control Chart Interpretation,” Journal of Quality Technology, 27, 99–108.
  • Meyer, L. H. (2004). “Practical Problems and Obstacles to Inflation Targeting,” Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis), (July/August), 86, 4, 151-160.
  • Minella, A., P. S. de Freitas, I. Goldfajn and M. K. Muinhos (2003). “Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 22, 7, 1015- 1040 December).
  • Mishkin, F. S. (2007). “Inflation Dynamics,” Working Paper (NBER), No. 13147, (June).
  • Montgomery, D. C. (2005). Introduction to Statistical Quality Control, 5th ed. John Wiley, New York, NY.
  • Nelson, L. S. (1982). “Control Charts for Individual Measurements,” Journal of Quality Technology, 14, 172– 174.
  • Nelson, L. S. (1984). “The Shewhart Control Chart – Tests for Special Causes,” Journal of Quality Technology, 16, 237–239.
  • Ng, C. H. and Case, K. E. (1989). “Development and Evaluation of Control Charts Using Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages,” Journal of Quality Technology, 21, 242–250.
  • Page, E. S. (1954). “Continuous Inspection Schemes,” Biometrika, 41, 100–114.
  • Page, E. S. (1961). “Cumulative Sum Charts,” Technometrics, 3, 1–10.
  • Piger, J. M. and Thornton, D. L. (2004). “Inflation Targeting: Prospects and Problems,” Editors’ Introduction, Review (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), (July/August), 86, 4, 3-13.
  • Pignatiello, J. J., Jr. and Runger, G. C. (1990). “Comparison of Multivariate CUSUM Charts,” Journal of
  • Prins, J. and Mader, D. (1997-98). “Multivariate Control Charts for Grouped and Individual Observations,” Quality Engineering, 10, 49–57.
  • Roberts, S. W. (1959). “Control Chart Tests Based on Geometric Moving Averages,” Technometrics, 1, 239– 250.
  • Schilling, E. G. and Nelson, P. R. (1976). “The Effect of Nonnormality on the Control Limits of Charts,” Journal of Quality Technology, 8, 183–187.
  • Shewhart, W. A. (1926). “Quality Control Charts,” Bell System Technology Journal, 5, 593–602.
  • Shewhart, W. A. (1931). Economic Control of Quality Manufactured Product, D. Van Nostrand Company, Inc., New York, NY. Republished in 1980 by the American Society of Quality Control.
  • Shewhart, W. A., Deming, W. E. (Eds) (1939). Statistical Method from The Viewpoint of Quality Control, Dover Publications, New York, NY.
  • Vardeman, S. B. and Jobe, J. M. (1998). Statistical Quality Assurance Methods for Engineers, John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY.
  • Vargas N., J. A. (2003). “Robust Estimation in Multivariate Control Charts for Individual Observations,” Journal of Quality Technology, 35, 367–376.
  • Western Electric (1956). Statistical Quality Control Handbook, Western Electric Corporation, Indianapolis, Ind.
  • Woodall, W. H. and Adams, B. M. (1993). “The Statistical Design of CUSUM Charts,” Quality Engineering, 5, 559–570.
  • Woodford, M. (2004). “Inflation Targeting: A Theoretical Evaluation,” Review (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), (July/August), 86, 4, 15-41.
Toplam 65 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Okt.Eric Kehinde Ogunleye Bu kişi benim

İsmail H. Genç Bu kişi benim

Bilge Eriş Bu kişi benim

Kim Heng Chen Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Haziran 2010
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2010 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Ogunleye, O. K., Genç, İ. H., Eriş, B., Chen, K. H. (2010). ANALYSIS OF THE STABILITY OF INFLATION IN INFLATION TARGETING COUNTRIES VIA CONTROL CHARTS. Bilgi Ekonomisi Ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 5(1), 111-123.