PETROL FİYATLARI İLE DIŞ TİCARET DENGESİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN AMPİRİK ANALİZİ

Öz

1970’li yıllarda yaşanan petrol şoklarının etkisi ve 1980’lerden itibaren küreselleşmenin hızlanmasıyla birlikte dünya ticaret hacmindeki büyüme petrol fiyatlarının çeşitli makro ekonomik değişkenler ile ilişkisinin araştırıldığı geniş bir literatürün oluşmasına yol açmıştır. Günümüzde de ekonomik faaliyetler bakımından önemli bir emtia olması dolayısıyla petrol fiyatları sürekli takip edilen bir gösterge olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı petrol fiyatları ile ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişkinin analiz edilmesidir. Çalışma 8 ülkeden (Bangladeş, Brezilya, Kolombiya, Hindistan, Mauritius, Pakistan, Türkiye ve Güney Afrika) oluşan panel için yapılmış olup 2006-2021 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada değişkenler arası ilişkiler Sabit Etkiler Modeli ve Driscoll-Kraay tahmincisi ile analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonuçları Sabit Etkiler Modeli bakımından petrol fiyatları ile ticaret dengesi arasında zayıf ilişkilerin varlığını, Driscoll-Kraay Tahmincisi ile analiz edildiğinde güçlü ilişkilerin varlığını göstermektedir. Çalışma diğer değişkenler açısından da her iki tahmin modeli çerçevesinde GSYH ve döviz kurlarının dış ticaret dengesi ile güçlü ilişkilere sahip olduğunu göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Petrol Fiyatları
• Dış Ticaret Dengesi
• Sabit Etkiler Modeli
• Driscoll-Kraay Tahmincisi

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS of the RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OIL PRICE and TRADE BALANCE

Öz

The impact of the oil shocks in the 1970s and the acceleration of globalization since the 1980s have led to the emergence of a vast literature investigating the relationship between the growth in world trade volume and various macroeconomic variables related to oil prices. Due to its significance as a commodity in economic activities, oil prices have remained a closely monitored indicator to this day. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between oil prices and trade balance. The study is conducted for a panel consisting of 8 countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, India, Mauritius, Pakistan, Turkey, and South Africa) covering the period from 2006 to 2021. The relationships between variables are analyzed using the Fixed Effects Model and the Driscoll-Kraay estimator. The results of the study indicate the presence of weak relationships between oil prices and trade balance in terms of the Fixed Effects Model, while strong relationships are observed when analyzed with the Driscoll-Kraay Estimator. The study also demonstrates strong relationships between GDP, exchange rates, and trade balance in both prediction models.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Oil Prices
• Trade Balance
• Fixed Effect Model
• Driscoll-Kraay Estimator

Kaynakça

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