Türkiye’de Beşeri Sermaye ve Küreselleşmenin Kayıt Dışı Ekonomi Üzerindeki Etkileri: Fourier-ADL Yaklaşımı

Öz

Kayıt dışı ekonomi, hükümetlerin vergi gelirlerini azaltan önemli bir problemdir. Bu nedenle, kayıt dışı ekonominin belirleyicilerini tespit etmek amacıyla birçok araştırmacı ampirik çalışmalar yürütmüştür. Küreselleşme ve beşerî sermayenin kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerini inceleyen teorik çalışmalar olmasına karşın ampirik çalışmaların sayısı oldukça kısıtlıdır. Önceki çalışmalar ile ulaşılan sonuçlar iki değişken arasındaki ilişkinin negatif veya pozitif olabileceğini ve bu ilişkinin ülkeye özgü koşullara göre değişebileceğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de 1986-2015 döneminde beşerî sermaye ve küreselleşme indekslerinin kayıt dışı ekonomiye uzun dönemli etkilerini inceleyerek bu boşluğu doldurmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bunu yaparken, çalışma Fourier ADL yaklaşımı, tam değiştirilmiş en küçük kareler (FMOLS) ve dinamik en küçük kareler (DOLS) tahmincilerini kullanmaktadır. Küreselleşme ve beşerî sermayenin kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerini eşanlı olarak sınayan bir çalışma bulunmaması nedeniyle, bu çalışma, literatüre bir katkıdır. Ampirik sonuçlar, küreselleşmenin kayıt dışı ekonomiyi azaltmada önemli bir rol oynadığını göstermektedir. Küreselleşmedeki %1’lik bir artış, Türkiye’de kayıt dışı ekonomiyi yaklaşık %2,5 azaltmaktadır. Aksine, beşerî sermayenin kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerinde herhangi bir etkisi bulunmamaktadır. Sonuç itibarıyla, Türkiye’de küreselleşme, kayıt dışı ekonomi ile mücadelede önemli bir araç olarak kullanılabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Fourier fonksiyonu
• Kayıt dışı ekonomi
• Küreselleşme
• Beşeri sermaye
• Eşbütünleşme

The Effects of Human Capital and Globalization on Shadow Economy in Turkey: Fourier-ADL Approach

Abstract

The shadow economy is an important problem that reduces the tax revenues of governments. For this reason, many researchers have conducted empirical studies to determine the determinants of the shadow economy. Although theoretical studies have investigated the effects of globalization on the shadow economy, the number of empirical studies is limited. The results obtained in the previous studies show that the relationship between the two variables can be negative or positive and this relationship can change depending on country-specific conditions. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap by investigating the long-run effects of human capital and globalization indexes on the shadow economy in Turkey covering the period of 1986-2015. In doing so, the study uses the Fourier ADL approach, fully modified least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic least squares (DOLS) estimators. Since there is no study simultaneously testing the effects of globalization and human capital on the shadow economy, this study is a contribution to the literature. The empirical results show that globalization plays an important role in reducing the shadow economy. A 1% increase in globalization leads to a 2.5% reduction in the shadow economy in Turkey. In contrast, human capital does not affect the shadow economy. Consequently, globalization can be used as an important tool to combat the shadow economy in Turkey.

Keywords

• Fourier function
• shadow economy
• globalization
• human capital
• cointegration

Kaynakça

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