Anatolian Sageretia as an indicator species for prediction of putative refuges in Taurus Mountains

Öz

The Western Taurus Mountains, a biodiversity hotspot in the Mediterranean Basin, host the Anatolian Sageretia with a relict distribution. Field studies confirm that its distribution overlaps with habitats of local endemic and critically endangered chasmophytic species. To predict similar critical habitats, Maxent modeling was used to project the species' current and future distributions under various climate scenarios. Bioclimatic variables from the CHELSA database and IPSL-CM6A-LR model were employed to assess different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) for the periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The distribution of Sageretia thea var. bornmuelleri is primarily influenced by bedrock type, topography, and climate. Suitable habitats are characterized by steep limestone formations in deep valleys, with annual average temperatures between 14 to 17°C and a mean diurnal temperature difference of 11 to 12°C. All scenarios indicate a decline in the species' current distribution area, particularly at lower elevations, suggesting a shift to higher altitudes. This study highlights the importance of Anatolian Sageretia as an indicator of endemism and potential refuges, emphasizing the need for understanding its distribution for effective conservation and monitoring.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate change
• Sageretia thea
• Ecological niche modeling
• Biodiversity
• MaxEnt

Toros Dağları’ndaki olası sığınak alanların tahmin edilmesinde gösterge tür olarak Sageretya

Öz

Batı Toros Dağları, Akdeniz Havzası'ndaki biyolojik çeşitlilik sıcak noktalarından biridir ve relikt bir dağılıma sahip olan Sageretia thea var. bornmuelleri türüne ev sahipliği yapmaktadır. Arazi çalışmaları, bu türün dağılımının lokal endemik ve kritik tehlike altındaki kaya çatlaklarında yaşayan türlerle örtüştüğünü doğrulamaktadır. Benzer kritik habitatları tahmin etmek amacıyla, türün mevcut ve gelecekteki dağılımlarını modellemek için Maxent modeli kullanılmıştır. CHELSA veritabanı ve IPSL-CM6A-LR modelinden biyoklimatik değişkenler, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 ve 2071-2100 dönemleri için Ortak Sosyoekonomik Rota (SSP) senaryolarını değerlendirmek için kullanılmıştır. S. thea var. bornmuelleri türünün dağılımı, öncelikle ana kaya türü, topografya ve iklim tarafından etkilenmektedir. Uygun habitatlar, derin vadilerde dik kireçtaşı oluşumlarıyla karakterize olup, yıllık ortalama sıcaklıkların 14-17°C ve günlük sıcaklık farkının 11-12°C arasında olduğu alanlardır. Tüm senaryolarda, özellikle alt yükseltilerde, türün mevcut dağılışında bir azalma gözlemlenmekte olup, bu durum türün daha yüksek rakımlara kayabileceğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışma, sageretyanın endemizm ve olası sığınak alanlarının bir göstergesi olarak önemini vurgulamakta ve dağılımının anlaşılması etkin koruma ve izleme çalışmaları için kritik olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• iklim değişikliği
• Sageretia thea
• Ecolojik niş modellemesi
• Biyoçeşitlilik
• Maxent

Kaynakça

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