İklim Değişiminin Etkisi Altında Kaz Dağları ve Çevresinde Thaumetopoea pityocampa’nın Potansiyel Dağılımı

Öz

İklim değişikliği, orman zararlısı böceklerin dağılım dinamiklerini etkileyen en önemli çevresel faktörlerden biridir. Bu çalışmada, Thaumetopoea pityocampa’nın Kaz Dağları ve çevresindeki mevcut ve gelecekteki potansiyel dağılımı, Maksimum Entropi (MaxEnt) yöntemi kullanılarak modellenmiştir. Modele, türe ait varlık verileri ile WorldClim veri tabanından elde edilen biyoklimatik değişkenler dâhil edilmiştir. Gelecekteki habitat uygunluğu projeksiyonları, 2081–2100 dönemi için SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 ve SSP585 iklim senaryoları altında gerçekleştirilmiştir. Model performansı AUC (Eğri Altında Kalan Alan), ihmal oranları ve AICc kriterleri kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir. MaxEnt modeli, eğitim ve doğrulama AUC değerlerinin 0,95’in üzerinde olmasıyla yüksek tahmin başarısı göstermiştir. Tepki eğrisi analizleri, sıcaklık değişkenleri olan BIO5, BIO6 ve BIO7’nin tür dağılımı üzerinde en etkili çevresel faktörler olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Dağılım haritaları, gelecekteki iklim senaryoları altında habitat uygunluğunun kademeli olarak azalacağını ve parçalı bir yapı kazanacağını göstermiştir. Özellikle yüksek emisyon senaryoları altında uygun habitat alanlarında önemli azalmalar gözlenmiş; tür için uygun koşulların yalnızca belirli yerel mikro-sığınak alanlarında korunabileceği belirlenmiştir. En belirgin habitat kaybı SSP585 senaryosu altında gözlemlenmiştir. Sonuçlar, iklim değişikliğinin T. pityocampa türünün coğrafi dağılımını önemli ölçüde değiştirebileceğini ve Akdeniz orman ekosistemlerinin gelecekteki dinamiklerini etkileyebileceğini göstermektedir. Bu nedenle, iklim temelli tür dağılım modelleri; sürdürülebilir orman yönetimi, biyolojik çeşitliliğin korunması ve zararlı risk analizi açısından önemli araçlar olarak değerlendirilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İklim Değişikliği
• Ekolojik Niş Modellemesi
• Orman Zararlısı
• Maxent
• Tür Dağılım Modellemesi
• Thaumetopoea pityocampa

Teşekkür

Bu çalışma, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsünde hazırlanan “İklim Değişikliği Etkisi Altında Çam Kese Böceğinin [Thaumetopoea sp. (Lepidoptera: Notodontidae)] Kaz Dağları ve Çevresindeki Potansiyel Dağılımı” başlıklı lisansüstü tezden üretilmiştir. Yazarlar, tez çalışmasının yürütülmesine sağlanan akademik ve kurumsal destekler için Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesine teşekkür eder.

The Potential Distribution of Thaumetopoea pityocampa in the Kaz Mountains and Surrounding Areas Under the Influence of Climate Change

Öz

Climate change is one of the most significant environmental factors influencing the distribution dynamics of forest insect pests. In this study, the current and future potential distribution of Thaumetopoea pityocampa in the Kaz Mountains and surrounding areas was modeled using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method. Species presence data and bioclimatic variables obtained from the WorldClim database were incorporated into the model. Projections of future habitat suitability were carried out for the period 2081–2100 under the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 climate scenarios. Model performance was evaluated using AUC (Area Under the Curve), omission rates, and AICc criteria. The MaxEnt model demonstrated high predictive success with training and validation AUC values exceeding 0.95. Response curve analyses revealed that temperature variables BIO5, BIO6 and BIO7 were the most influential environmental factors on species distribution. Distribution maps indicated that habitat suitability would gradually decrease and become fragmented under future climate scenarios. In particular, under high-emission scenarios, significant reductions in suitable habitat areas were observed, while it was determined that only certain local micro-refugia areas could maintain suitable conditions for the species. The most pronounced habitat loss was observed under the SSP585 scenario. The results indicate that climate change could significantly alter the geographical distribution of the T. pityocampa species and influence the future dynamics of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Consequently, climate-based species distribution models are considered important tools for sustainable forest management, biodiversity conservation, and pest risk analysis.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate Change
• Ecological Niche Modeling
• Forest Pest
• Maxent
• Thaumetopoea pityocampa

Teşekkür

This article was derived from the graduate thesis entitled “The Potential Distribution of Pine Processionary Moth [Thaumetopoea sp. (Lepidoptera: Notodontidae)] in the Kaz Mountains and Surrounding Areas under the Influence of Climate Change,” prepared at the Institute of Graduate Studies, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University. The authors gratefully acknowledge Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University for the academic and institutional support provided during the thesis research.

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