Central Asia in Regional and Global Policies of Russia and China

Yıl 2024, , 1 - 28, 31.10.2024

Nasuh Uslu

https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.11101

Öz

From a realist perspective, there is a power competition between China and Russia and the US-led West. Russian rulers felt that the very existence of Russia was seriously threatened by the advancement of the West in an anarchic system, and they reacted by launching military intervention in Georgia and Ukraine. The efforts of Russian rulers to firmly bind Central Asian countries to Russia through bilateral economic and military relations as well as regional organizations have also been shaped by their struggle to preserve Russian existence against the West. China’s efforts to bind regional countries to itself through the SCO and the BRI is a power accumulation reaction given by a state that has emerged as a power pole vis-a-vis the dominant power to the possibility of being prevented from strengthening itself within the system. Russia and China’s efforts to act together in regional initiatives have emerged as an effort of balancing the West. Accordingly, China’s becoming more influential in the region has been managed by the two states with the same concern and this has served the interests of regional countries. In this study, Russia and China’s policies towards regional countries and their approaches in regional organizations have been explained and analyzed from the realist perspective.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Russia, China, Central Asian states, regional organizations, balancing the West

Rusya ve Çin’in Bölgesel ve Küresel Politikalarında Orta Asya

Öz

Realist perspektiften bakıldığında, Çin ve Rusya ile ABD liderliğindeki Batı arasında bir güç rekabeti mevcuttur. Rus yöneticiler, anarşik sistemde Batının ilerlemesinin Rusya’nın varlığını ciddi şekilde tehdit ettiğini hissetmiş ve Gürcistan ve Ukrayna’ya askerî müdahalede bulunarak tepki göstermişlerdir. Rus yöneticilerin Orta Asya ülkelerini ikili ekonomik ve askerî ilişkilerin yanı sıra bölgesel örgütler aracılığıyla Rusya’ya sıkı sıkıya bağlama çabaları da Batıya karşı Rus varlığını koruma mücadelesi tarafından şekillendirilmiştir. Çin’in ŞİÖ ve KYG üzerinden bölge ülkelerini kendine bağlama çabası, başat güç karşısında bir güç kutbu olarak ortaya çıkan bir devletin sistem içinde güçlenmesinin engellenmesi ihtimaline verdiği bir güç biriktirme tepkisidir. Rusya ve Çin’in bölgesel girişimlerde birlikte hareket etme çabaları, Batıyı dengeleme çabası olarak ortaya çıkmıştır. Çin’in bölgede daha etkili hâle gelmesi, iki devlet tarafından aynı kaygıyla yönetilmiş ve bu durum bölge ülkelerinin çıkarlarına hizmet etmiştir. Çalışmada Rusya ve Çin’in bölge ülkelerine yönelik politikaları ve bölgesel örgütlerdeki yaklaşımları realist perspektiften açıklanmış ve analiz edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Rusya, Çin, Orta Asya devletleri, bölgesel örgütler, Batıyı dengeleme

Kaynakça

• Agayeva, Aygul. “Soğuk Savaş Sonrası Dönemde Çin’in Avrasya Enerji Jeopolitiği Politikası: Orta Asya Örneği.” Doğu Asya Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 4, no. 8, 2021, pp. 1-14.
• Ali, Hashim et al. “The Grand Strategy of China Towards Central Asia: An Assessment of Chinese New Regionalism Strategy and its Geopolitical Implications for US in the Post 9/11 Era.” Journal of South Asian Studies, vol. 9, no. 3, 2021, pp. 225-233.
• Allison, Graham. “The New Spheres of Influence: Sharing the Globe with Other Great Powers.” Foreign Affairs, vol. 99, no. 2, March/April 2020, pp. 30-40.
• Amirbek, Aidarbek, and Ömirbek Hanayi, “Ticari-Ekonomik İşbirliği Temelinde Çin-Orta Asya İlişkilerinin Analizi.” Bölgesel Araştırmalar Dergisi, vol. 4, no. 2, 2020, pp. 47-75.
• Argalı, Medihanur. “Beyaz Ayı ve Kızıl Ejder Kıskacında Orta Asya Devletlerinin Çok Vektörlü Dış Politikaları.” Uluslararası Kriz ve Siyaset Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 1, 2023, pp. 75-105.
• Aydoğan, Sevim. “Rusya ve Çin’i Şanghay İşbirliği Örgütünün Oluşumuna Götüren Sebepler.” Anadolu Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, vol. 22, no. 3, 2021, pp. 135-149. Bolonina, Aleksandra. Security Dimension of China’s Presence in Central Asia. Asia Focus #108, University of Pantheon, 2019.
• Bossuyt, Fabienne, and Irina Bolgova. “Connecting Eurasia: Is Cooperation Between Russia, China and the EU in Central Asia Possible?” Regional Integration and Future Cooperation Initiatives in the Eurasian Economic Union, ed. Maria Lagutina, Business Science Reference, 2019, pp. 234-250.
• Buyar, Cengiz, and Ubeydullah Şener. “Tarihi Perspektiften, Değerler Açısından Rusya ve Ukrayna Savaşı ve Orta Asya Ülkelerine Etkileri.” Uluslararası Medeniyet Çalışmaları Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 2, 2022, pp. 136-149.
• Charap, Samuel et al. Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality. Santa Monica: Rand Cooperation, 2021.
• Duarte, Paulo. “Which Regionalism for Central Asia? The Challenges of China’s, the U.S.’ and Russia’s Integration Projects in Central Asia.” Integration Processes and State Interests in Eurasia, ed. Jildiz Nicharapova and Sebastien Peyrouse, USAID, 2018, pp. 73-82.
• Dubnov, Arkady. Reflecting on a Quarter Century of Russia’s Relations with Central Asia. U.S.-Russia Insight, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2018.
• Erenel, Fahri. “Jeopolitik Teoriler ve Avrasya’nın Merkezinde Güç Savaşları.” Avrasya Dosyası, vol. 12, no. 1, 2021, pp. 1-29.
• Garcia, Zenel, and Kevin D. Modlin. “Sino-Russian Relations and the War in Ukraine.” Parameters, vol. 52, no. 3, 2022, pp. 20-36.
• Good, Richard Alexander. Can Regionalism Provide Stabilization to Central Asia and thus Afghanistan?. MA Thesis, Plymouth University, 2019.
• Han, Zhen, and T.V. Paul. “China’s Rise and Balance of Power Politics.” The Chinese Journal of International Politics, vol. 13, no. 1, 2020, pp. 1-26.
• Indeo, Fabio. The Role of Russia in the Central Asian Security Architecture. Policy Brief 48, OSCE Academy in Bishkek, 2018.
• Jardine, Bradley, and Edward Lemon. In Russia’s Shadow: China’s Rising Security Presence in Central Asia. Kennan Cable, No. 52, 2020.
• Kazantsev, Andrei et al. “Between Russia and China: Central Asia in Greater Eurasia.” Journal of Eurasian Studies, vol. 12, no. 1, 2021, pp. 57-71.
• Kenzhetay, Nazgül. “Çin’in Küresel Yükselişinin Orta Asya Türk Cumhuriyetlerine Etkisi: Enerji Politikası.” İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Dış Ticaret Dergisi, vol. 1, no. 4, 2023, pp. 1-12.
• Khan, Jamshed, and Razia Sultana. “Sino-Russia Strategic Partnership: The Case Study of Shanghai Cooperation Organization.” FWU Journal of Social Sciences, vol. 15, no. 2, 2021, pp. 1-19.
• Kolpakova, Tatyana, and Tatiana Kuchinskaya. “China’s “New Regionalism” as a Mechanism to Strengthen the Influence of China in the Global Integration Processes: An Example of Eurasian Economic Union.” International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, no. 5 (Special Issue), 2015, pp. 109-115.
• Konopelko, Agnieszka. “Bases and Mechanisms of Regionalism in Post-Soviet Central Asia.” International Business and Global Economy, no. 33, 2014, pp. 214-226.
• Korkmaz, Hüseyin. “Stratejik Ortaklık Mı Yoksa İttifak Mı? Yeni Dönemde Çin-Rusya İlişkileri.” Siyasi, Sosyal ve Kültürel Yönleriyle Türkiye ve Rusya, ed. Osman Köse, Berikan Yayınevi, 2020, pp. 167-176.
• Krapohl, Sebastian, and Alexandra Vasileva-Dienes. “The Region that isn’t: China, Russia and the Failure of Regional Integration in Central Asia.” Asia Europe Journal, no. 18, 2020, pp. 347-366.
• Krickovic, Andrej, and Igor Pellicciari, “From “Greater Europe” to “Greater Eurasia”: Status Concerns and the Evolution of Russia’s Approach to Alignment and Regional Integration.” Journal of Eurasian Studies, vol. 12, no. 1, 2021, pp. 86-99.
• Krivokhizh, Svetlana, and Elena Soboleva. “The EU and China: How Do They Fit in Central Asia?” Central Asian Survey, vol. 41, no. 4, 2022, pp. 715-733.
• Lewis, David. “Central Asia: Fractured Region, Illiberal Regionalism.” Russia Abroad: Driving Regional Fracture in Post-Communist Eurasia and Beyond, ed. Anna Ohanyan, Georgetown University Press, 2018, pp. 119- 134.
• Liao, Janet Xuanli. “China’s Energy Diplomacy towards Central Asia and the Implications on its Belt and Road Initiative.” The Pacific Review, vol. 34, no. 3, 2021, pp. 490-522.
• Lo, S. Andrew, and Piotr Dutkiewicz. “The EAEU and OBOR: Economics, Security, or Both?” Integration Processes and State Interests in Eurasia, eds. Jildiz Nicharapova and Sebastien Peyrouse, USAID, 2018, pp. 43-56.
• Lukin, Artyom. “The Russia-China Entente and Its Future.” International Politics, no. 58, 2021, pp. 363-380.
• Lukin, Alexander. “Russian-Chinese Cooperation in Central Asia and the Idea of Greater Eurasia.” India Quarterly, vol. 75, no. 1, 2019, pp. 1-14.
• Mankoff, Jeffrey. “The Eurasian Economic Union: Dreams, Nightmares, Realities, Prospects.” Integration Processes and State Interests in Eurasia, eds. Jildiz Nicharapova and Sebastien Peyrouse, USAID, 2018, pp. 27- 42.
• Mayer, Sebastian. “Cooperation from Outside: Security Regionalism in Central Asia and Its Limits.” Central Asian Affairs, no. 8, 2021, pp. 203-228.
• Moldashev, Kairat, and Ikboljon Qoraboye. “From Regional Integration to Soft Institutionalism: What Kind of Regionalism for Central Asia?” Integration Processes and State Interests in Eurasia, eds. Jildiz Nicharapova and Sebastien Peyrouse, USAID, 2018, pp. 83-98.
• Nurimbetov, Rakhmatulla, and Laszlo Vasa. “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization in a Changing Central Asian Geopolitical Context.” Aarms, vol. 20, no. 2, 2021, pp. 27-38.
• Peyrouse, Sebastien and Jildiz Nicharapova. “Introduction.” Integration Processes and State Interests in Eurasia, eds. Jildiz Nicharapova and Sebastien Peyrouse, USAID, 2018, pp. 7-16.
• Peyrouse, Sebastien, and Gaël Raballand. “Central Asia: the New Silk Road Initiative’s Questionable Economic Rationality.” Eurasian Geography and Economics, vol. 56, no. 4, 2015, pp. 405-420.
• Pieper, Moritz. “The Linchpin of Eurasia: Kazakhstan and the Eurasian Economic Union between Russia’s Defensive Regionalism and China’s New Silk Roads.” International Politics, no. 58, 2021, pp. 462-482.
• Qamar, Fatima, and Sumera Zafar. “New Great Game: Players, Interests, Strategies and Central Asia.” South Asian Studies, vol. 29, no. 2, 2014, pp. 623-652.
• Rakhimov, Mirzokhid. “Complex Regionalism in Central Asia: Local, Regional, and Global Factors.” Cambridge Journal of Eurasian Studies, no. 2, 2018, pp. 1-13.
• Rauf, Sarwat, and Adam Saud. “Prospects of CSTO and SCO in Regional Politics of Central Asia.” International Journal of Politics and Security, vol. 2, no. 4, 2020, pp. 30-50.
• Shakhanova, Gaziza, and Jeremy Garlick. “The Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union: Exploring the ‘Greater Eurasian Partnership’.” Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, vol. 49, no. 1, 2020, pp. 33- 57.
• Shukuralieva, N. “Activities of International Organisations on Security Issues in Central Asia.” Cross-border Exchanges: Eurasian Perspectives on Logistics and Diplomacy, eds. Pierre Chabal et al., Peter Lang, 2019, pp. 39-50.
• Soboleva, Elena, and Svetlana Krivokhizh. “Chinese Initiatives in Central Asia: Claim for Regional Leadership?” Eurasian Geography and Economics, vol. 62, no. 5-6, 2021, pp. 634-658.
• Stronski, Pual, and Richard Sokolsky. Multipolarity in Practice: Understanding Russia’s Engagement with Regional Institutions. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2020.
• Talka, Santeri. Open Regionalism in a Global System: The Political Economy of Central Asian Regional Integration, MA Thesis, Helsinki University, 2018.
• Tskhay, Aliya, and Filippo Costa Buranelli. “Accommodating Revisionism Through Balancing Regionalism: the Case of Central Asia.” Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 72, no. 6, 2020, pp. 1033-1052.
• Wilson, Jeanne. “Competitive Partners: Tensions Between Russia’s Goals for the EAEU and the Chinese Vision of the BRI in Central Asia.” Integration Processes and State Interests in Eurasia, eds. Jildiz Nicharapova and Sebastien Peyrouse, USAID, 2018, pp. 57-72.
• Yilmaz, Serafettin, and Liu Changming. “Remaking Eurasia: the Belt and Road Initiative and China-Russia Strategic Partnership.” Asia Europe Journal, no. 18, 2020, pp. 259-280.