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Unraveling the Rationality of Genocide: A Comparative Analysis of Khojaly and Srebrenica

Yıl 2024, , 79 - 102, 31.10.2024

İbrahim Fevzi Güven , Ali Asker

https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.11104

Öz

Within the scholarly debates in political science and genocide studies, an increasingly prevailing view posits that the most adequate explanation for the occurrence of genocide is the strategic approach. According to this view, the main impetus behind the decision to use violence against civilians is not irrational barbarism but rational choices to realize strategic interests. However, how and under what circumstances genocide becomes a rational choice for aggressors in pursuing their strategic objectives has remained largely unexplored. Through a comparative analysis of the cases of Srebrenica and
Khojaly, this study seeks to uncover the strategic, political, and ideological factors that underpin the rationale for genocide. The findings show that the viability of genocide as a low-risk option is underpinned by three interrelated factors. These are the recognition of the limited capacity of the victims to mount armed resistance, resulting in a reduced or negligible risk of counterattack; the awareness of the international community’s reluctance to intervene; and the expectation that demographic transformation through ethnic cleansing and genocide could be preserved as a beneficial post-conflict resource.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Genocide Karabakh Khojaly massacre Srebrenica

Kaynakça

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Soykırımın Rasyonalitesini Çözümlemek: Hocalı ve Srebrenitsa’nın Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

Yıl 2024, , 79 - 102, 31.10.2024

İbrahim Fevzi Güven , Ali Asker

https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.11104

Öz

Siyaset bilimi ve soykırım çalışmaları alanındaki tartışmalarda soykırımın meydana gelmesine ilişkin en uygun açıklamaları stratejik yaklaşımın sunduğu görüşü yaygınlık kazanmıştır. Bu yaklaşıma göre, sivillere karşı şiddet kullanma kararının ardındaki temel itici güç irrasyonel bir saldırganlıktan ziyade stratejik çıkarları gerçekleştirmeye yönelik rasyonel seçimlerdir. Fakat soykırımın nasıl ve hangi koşullar altında saldırgan taraf için stratejik amaçlarına ulaşmada rasyonel bir seçenek olarak görüldüğü yeterince ele alınmamıştır. Srebrenitsa ve Hocalı örneklerinin karşılaştırmalı analizini sunan bu çalışma, soykırımın gerekçesini oluşturan stratejik, siyasi ve ideolojik faktörleri keşfetmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Her iki örneğin derinlemesine incelenmesiyle elde edilen bulgular, soykırımın failler için düşük riskli bir seçenek hâline gelmesinde birbiriyle ilişkili üç temel faktörün rol oynadığını göstermektedir. Bunlar, mağdur tarafın silahlı direniş gösterme kapasitelerinin sınırlı olması sonucunda karşı saldırı riskinin azalması, uluslararası toplumun müdahale etme konusundaki isteksizliğinin farkına varılması ile etnik temizlik ve soykırım yoluyla elde edilen demografik dönüşümün çatışma sonrasında bir kazanım olarak korunabileceği beklentisidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Soykırım Karabağ Hocalı katliam Srebrenitsa

Kaynakça

  • Abilov, Shamkhal, and Ismayil Isayev. “The Consequences of the Nagorno–Karabakh War for Azerbaijan and the Undeniable Reality of Khojaly Massacre: A View from Azerbaijan.” Polish Political Science Yearbook, no. 45, Mar. 2016, pp. 291-303, https://doi.org/10.15804/ppsy2016022.
  • Ali, Rabia, and Lawrence Lifschultz. “Why Bosnia?” Third World Quarterly, vol. 15, no. 3, Sept. 1994, pp. 367-401, https://doi.org/10.1080/014.365.99408420387.
  • Allen, Beverly. Rape Warfare: The Hidden Genocide in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia. University of Minnesota Press, 1996.
  • Ataman, Muhittin, and Ferhat Pirinççi. “Karabağ Sorunu: Dondurulmuş Yapaylıktan Kaçınılmaz Çözüme Doğru.” Çıkmazdan Çözüme Karabağ Sorunu, ed. Muhittin Ataman, and Ferhat Pirinççi, SETA, 2021, pp. 17-37.
  • Atun, Ata. “Principal Actors of Khojaly Genocide.” International Journal of Academic Research, vol. 3, no. 4, 2011, pp. 370-73.
  • Aziz, Boran. Hocalı Soykırımı. Translated by Sebahattin Şimşir, IQ Kültür Sanat Yayıncılık, 2014.
  • Bauman, Zygmunt. Modernity and the Holocaust. Polity Press, 1989.
  • Biondich, Mark. The Balkans: Revolution, War, and Political Violence since 1878. Oxford University Press, 2011.
  • Biserko, Sonja. Yugoslaviaʹs Implosion: The Fatal Attraction of Serbian Nationalism. Norwegian Helsinki Committee, 2012.
  • Björkdahl, Annika. “Republika Srpska: Imaginary, Performance and Spatialization.” Political Geography, vol. 66, Sept. 2018, pp. 34-43, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2018.07.005.
  • Carmichael, Cathie. Ethnic Cleansing in the Balkans: Nationalism and the Destruction of Tradition. Routledge, 2002.
  • Chalk, Frank, and Kurt Jonassohn. The History and Sociology of Genocide. Analyses and Case Studies. Yale University Press, 1990.
  • Chirot, Daniel, and Clark McCauley. Why Not Kill Them All? The Logic and Prevention of Mass Political Murder. Princeton University Press, 2006.
  • Cigar, Norman. Genocide in Bosnia: The Policy of “Ethnic Cleansing.” Texas A&M University Press, 1995.
  • Cornell, Svante E. Azerbaijan Since Independence. Routledge, 2011.
  • Cornell, Svante E. “Turkey and the Conflict in Nagorno Karabakh: A Delicate Balance.” Middle Eastern Studies, vol. 34, no. 1, Jan. 1998, pp. 51-72, https://doi.org/10.1080/002.632.09808701209.
  • Cornell, Svante E. “Undeclared War: The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Reconsidered.” Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, vol. 20, no. 4, 1997, pp. 1-23.
  • Dudwick, Nora. “Nagorno-Karabagh and the Politics of Sovereignty.” Transcaucasia, Nationalism and Social Change: Essays in the History of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, ed. Ronald Grigor Suny, The University of Michigan Press, 1996, pp. 427-40.
  • Ertuğrul, Ümmühan Elçin. “2020 Azerbaycan-Ermenistan Ateşkesine Göre Yerinden Edilenlerin Dağlık Karabağ’a Geri Dönüşü.” bilig, no. 101, Apr. 2022, pp. 57-86, https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.10103.
  • Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” American Political Science Review, vol. 97, no. 01, Feb. 2003, pp. 75-90, https://doi.org/10.1017/S000.305.5403000534.
  • Fein, Helen. Accounting for Genocide: National Responses and Jewish Victimization during the Holocaust. University of Chicago Press, 1979.
  • Fjelde, Hanne, and Lisa Hultman. “Weakening the Enemy: A Disaggregated Study of Violence against Civilians in Africa.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 58, no. 7, Oct. 2014, pp. 1230-57, https://doi.org/10.1177/002.200.2713492648.
  • Gagnon, V. P. The Myth of Ethnic War: Serbia and Croatia in the 1990s. Cornell University Press, 2004.
  • Gasparyan, Arsen. “Understanding the Nagorno – Karabakh Conflict: Domestic Politics and Twenty Five Years of Fruitless Negotiations 1994-2018.” Caucasus Survey, no. 7, 2019, pp. 235-50.
  • George, Alexander L., and Andrew Bennett. Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. MIT Press, 2005.
  • Gerring, John. “What Is a Case Study and What Is It Good For?” American Political Science Review, vol. 98, no. 2, May 2004, pp. 341-354, https://doi.org/10.1017/S000.305.5404001182.
  • Glenny, Misha. Fall of Yugoslavia: The Third Balkan War. Penguin Books, 1996.
  • Goldsmith, Benjamin E., et al. “Forecasting the Onset of Genocide and Politicide.” Journal of Peace Research, vol. 50, no. 4, 2013, pp. 437-452.
  • Goltz, Thomas. Azerbaijan Diary: A Rogue Reporter’s Adventures in an Oil-Rich, War-Torn, Post-Soviet Republic. Routledge, 2015.
  • Goltz, Thomas. “Nagorno-Karabakh Victims Buried in Azerbaijani Town.” Washington Post, 28 Feb. 1992, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1992/02/28/nagorno-karabakh-victims-buried-in- azerbaijanitown/9d179769-e6bb-4476-8807-8d5133d40205/.
  • Graziosi, Andrea. “The Soviet 1931–33 Famines and the Ukrainian Holodomor.” Hunger by Design: The Great Ukrainian Famine and Its Soviet Context, ed. Halyna Hryn, Harvard University Press, 2009, pp. 1-19.
  • Güven, İbrahim Fevzi. Bosna-Hersek’te Savaş, Güvenlikleştirme ve Siyasi Liderler. Nobel Yayıncılık, 2023.
  • Heydarov, Tale. Khojaly Witness of a War Crime: Armenia in the Dock. ed. Ian Peart and Fiona McLachlan, Ithaca Press, 2014.
  • Hoare, Marko Attila. “The War of Yugoslav Succession.” Central and Southeast European Politics since 1989, ed. Sabrina P. Ramet and Christine M. Hassenstab, 2nd ed., Cambridge University Press, 2019, pp. 106-132, https://doi.org/10.1017/978.110.8752466.006.
  • Holbrooke, Richard. To End a War: The Conflict in Yugoslavia-America’s Inside Story-Negotiating with Milosevic. Modern Library, 1999.
  • Honig, Jan Willem, and Norbert Both. Srebrenica: Record of a War Crime. Penguin Books, 1997.
  • İsmayılov, Meşdi. “Karabağ’ın Ermenistan İçin Anlamı.” Çıkmazdan Çözüme Karabağ Sorunu, ed. Muhittin Ataman, and Ferhat Pirinççi, SETA, 2021, pp. 57-74.
  • İşyar, Ömer Göksel. “Azeri-Ermeni Çatışması, Barış Arayışları ve Çözümsüzlük.” Orta Asya ve Kafkasya: Rekabetten İşbirliğine, ed. Tayyar Arı, MKM Yayıncılık, 2010, pp. 193-227.
  • Jelavich, Barbara. History of the Balkans: Twentieth Century. Cambridge University Press, 1983.
  • Kuper, Leo. The Prevention of Genocide. Yale University Press, 1986.
  • Kurkchiyan, Marina. “The Karabagh Conflict: From Soviet Past to Post – Soviet Uncertainty.” The Armenians: Past and Present in the Making of National Identity, ed. Edmund Herzig, and Marina Kurkchiyan, Routledge Curzon, 2005, pp. 147-165.
  • Laitin, David D., and Ronald Grigor Suny. “Armenia and Azerbaijan: Thinking a Way out of Karabakh.” Middle East Policy, vol. 7, no. 1, 1999, pp. 145-176.
  • Levene, Mark. “Why Is the Twentieth Century the Century of Genocide?” Journal of World History, vol. 11, no. 2, 2000, pp. 305-336.
  • Lukic, Reneo. “Greater Serbia: A New Reality in the Balkans.” Nationalities Papers, vol. 22, no. 1, 1994, pp. 49-70, https://doi.org/10.1017/009.059.99408408309.
  • Magula, Justin. “Exploring Factors and Implications of Violence against Civilians: A Case Study of the Soviet-Afghan War.” Small Wars & Insurgencies, vol. 34, no. 7, July 2023, pp. 1-26, https://doi.org/10.1080/09592.318.2023.223 1198.
  • Mann, Michael. The Dark Side of Democracy: Explaining Ethnic Cleansing. Cambridge University Press, 2005.
  • Matveeva, Anna. “Nagorno-Karabakh: A Straightforward Territorial Conflict.” Searching for Peace in Europe and Eurasia: An Overview of Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding Activities, ed. Paul van Tongeren et al., Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2002, pp. 445-467.
  • McAllister, Jacqueline R. “Deterring Wartime Atrocities: Hard Lessons from the Yugoslav Tribunal.” International Security, vol. 44, no. 3, Jan. 2020, pp. 84-128, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00370.
  • Melkonian, Markar. My Brother’s Road: An American’s Fateful Journey to Armenia. I.B.Tauris, 2008.
  • Midlarsky, Manus I. The Killing Trap: Genocide in the Twentieth Century. Cambridge University Press, 2005. Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO978.051.1491023.
  • Milanova, Nadia. “The Territory-Identity Nexus in the Conflict over Nagorno Karabakh: Implications for OSCE Peace Efforts.” Journal on Ethnopolitics and Minority Issues in Europe, no. 2, 2003, pp. 1-26.
  • Mueller, John. “The Banality of ‘Ethnic War.’” International Security, vol. 25, no. 1, 2000, pp. 42-70.
  • Mujanović, Jasmin. “Bosnia’s Priority Is Membership in NATO: The Political Situation in the Western Balkans 25 Years after Srebrenica.” Militaire Spectator, 2020, https://militairespectator.nl/artikelen/jasmin- mujanovicbosnias-priority-membership-nato.
  • Mulaj, Klejda. “A Recurrent Tragedy: Ethnic Cleansing as a Tool of State Building in the Yugoslav Multinational Setting.” Nationalities Papers, vol. 34, no. 1, Mar. 2006, pp. 21-50, https://doi.org/10.1080/009.059.90500504830.
  • Muradov, Anar. “Costly Independence for Oil-Rich Azerbaijan: Khojaly Massacre. Why Could It Be Considered as Genocide?” ARHUSS, vol. 1, no. 3, 2018, pp. 147-162.
  • Naimark, Norman M. Genocide: A World History. 1st edition, Oxford University Press, 2016.
  • Nettelfield, Lara J., and Sarah E. Wagner. Srebrenica in the Aftermath of Genocide. Cambridge University Press, 2014.
  • Oliver, Ian. War & Peace in the Balkans: The Diplomacy of Conflict in the Former Yugoslavia. I.B. Tauris, 2005.
  • Özarslan, Bahadır Bumin. “Soykırım Suçunun Önlenmesi ve Cezalandırılması Sözleşmesi Açısından Hocalı Katliamı.” Hacettepe Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 4, no. 1, 2014, pp. 187-214.
  • Petersen, Roger Dale. Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred and Resentment in Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe. Cambridge University Press, 2002.
  • Pope, Hugh. “600 Azerbaijanis Slain at Khojaly, Investigator Says : Civil War: Ethnic Battle with Armenians in February Was the Bloodiest since the Soviet Breakup.” Los Angeles Times, 12 June 1992, https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-06-12-mn-226-story.html.
  • Preljević, Hamza. “The Role of the Islamic Community in Peacebuilding in Post-War Bosnia and Herzegovina: Case Study of East Bosnia.” Insight Turkey, vol. 19, no. 3, July 2017, pp. 207-230, https://doi.org/10.25253/99.2017193.12.
  • Ramet, Sabrina P. Thinking about Yugoslavia: Scholarly Debates about the Yugoslav Breakup and the Wars in Bosnia and Kosovo. Cambridge University Press, 2005.
  • Reuters. “Massacre by Armenians Being Reported.” The New York Times, 3 Mar. 1992. NYTimes.com, https://www.nytimes.com/1992/03/03/world/massacre-by-armenians-being-reported.html.
  • Rohde, David. Endgame: The Betrayal and Fall of Srebrenica, Europe’s Worst Massacre Since World War II. Penguin Books, 2012.
  • Sarıkaya, Yalçın, and Araz Aslanlı. “Karabağ Sorununda Diplomatik Müzakereler ve Minsk Süreci.” Çıkmazdan Çözüme Karabağ Sorunu, ed. Muhittin Ataman, and Ferhat Pirinççi, SETA, 2021, pp. 141-166.
  • Scherrer, Christian P. “Towards a Theory of Modern Genocide. Comparative Genocide Research: Definitions, Criteria, Typologies, Cases, Key Elements, Patterns and Voids.” Journal of Genocide Research, vol. 1, no. 1, Mar. 1999, pp. 13-23, https://doi.org/10.1080/146.235.29908413932.
  • Schwartz, Rachel A., and Scott Straus. “What Drives Violence against Civilians in Civil War? Evidence from Guatemala’s Conflict Archives.” Journal of Peace Research, vol. 55, no. 2, Mar. 2018, pp. 222-235, https://doi.org/10.1177/002.234.3317749272.
  • S/RES/822 (1993). UN Security Council, 30 Apr. 1993, https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/165604.
  • S/RES/853 (1993). UN Security Council, 29 July 1993, https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/170257.
  • S/RES/874 (1993). UN Security Council, 14 Oct. 1993, https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/174420.
  • S/RES/884 (1993). UN Security Council, 12 Nov. 1993, https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/176731.
  • Stjepanović, Dejan. “Territoriality and Citizenship: Membership and Sub-State Polities in Post-Yugoslav Space.” Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 67, no. 7, Aug. 2015, pp. 1030-1055, https://doi.org/10.1080/09668.136.2015.1068743.
  • Straus, Scott. “‘Destroy Them to Save Us’: Theories of Genocide and the Logics of Political Violence.” Terrorism and Political Violence, vol. 24, no. 4, Sept. 2012, pp. 544-560, https://doi.org/10.1080/09546.553.2012.700611.
  • Subotić, Jelena. “Holocaust and the Meaning of the Srebrenica Genocide: A Reflection on a Controversy.” Journal of Genocide Research, vol. 24, no. 1, Jan. 2022, pp. 71-82, https://doi.org/10.1080/14623.528.2021.1979294.
  • Suny, Ronald Grigor. “Debating Famine and Genocide.” Contemporary European History, vol. 27, no. 3, Aug. 2018, pp. 476-81, https://doi.org/10.1017/S096.077.7318000280.
  • Taras, Ray, and Rajat Ganguly. Understanding Ethnic Conflict. Fourth edition, Routledge, 2016.
  • Tatum, Dale C. Genocide at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century: Rwanda, Bosnia, Kosovo, and Darfur. Palgrave Macmillan, 2010.
  • Tchilingirian, Hratch. “Nagorno Karabagh: Transition and the Elite.” Central Asian Survey, vol. 18, no. 4, Dec. 1999, pp. 435-461, https://doi.org/10.1080/713656168.
  • Tokluoğlu, Ceylan. “Azerbaijani Elite Opinion on the Resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict (1991 and 2002).” bilig, no. 64, 2013, pp. 317-342.
  • Ulfelder, Jay, and Benjamin A. Valentino. “Assessing Risks of State-Sponsored Mass Killing.” SSRN Electronic Journal, 2008, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1703426.
  • Valentino, Benjamin A., et al. “‘Draining the Sea’: Mass Killing and Guerrilla Warfare.” International Organization, vol. 58, no. 02, Apr. 2004, https://doi.org/10.1017/S002.081.8304582061.
  • Valentino, Benjamin A. “Final Solutions: The Causes of Mass Killing and Genocide.” Security Studies, vol. 9, no. 3, Mar. 2000, pp. 1-59, https://doi.org/10.1080/096.364.10008429405.
  • Valentino, Benjamin A. “Why We Kill: The Political Science of Political Violence against Civilians.” Annual Review of Political Science, vol. 17, no. 1, May 2014, pp. 89-103, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci- 082.112.141937.
  • Vaserman, Arie, and Rami Ginat. “National, Territorial or Religious Conflict? The Case of Nagorno‐Karabakh.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, vol. 17, no. 4, Jan. 1994, pp. 345-362, https://doi.org/10.1080/105.761.09408435961.
  • Verémīs, Thános M. A Modern History of the Balkans: Nationalism and Identity in Southeast Europe. I.B. Tauris, 2017.
  • Waal, Thomas de. Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan through Peace and War. New York University Press, 2003.
  • Weiss-Wendt, Anton. A Rhetorical Crime: Genocide in the Geopolitical Discourse of the Cold War. Rutgers University Press, 2018.
  • Weiss-Wendt, Anton. The Soviet Union and the Gutting of the UN Genocide Convention. University of Wisconsin Press, 2017.
  • Weitz, Eric. A Century of Genocide: Utopias of Race and Nation. Princeton University Press, 2003.
  • Wood, William B. “Geographic Aspects of Genocide: A Comparison of Bosnia and Rwanda.” Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, vol. 26, no. 1, Mar. 2001, pp. 57-75, https://doi.org/10.1111/1475- 5661.00006.
  • Yunusov, Arif. Karabakh: Past and Present. Translated by Zhala Mammadova, Turan Information Agency, 2005.
Toplam 92 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Bölgesel Çalışmalar, Türk Dünyası Çalışmaları, Yakınçağ Tarihi (Diğer)
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

İbrahim Fevzi Güven 0000-0001-8616-947X

Ali Asker 0000-0003-1801-3371

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Ekim 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 24 Aralık 2023
Kabul Tarihi 19 Nisan 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024

Kaynak Göster

APA Güven, İ. F., & Asker, A. (2024). Unraveling the Rationality of Genocide: A Comparative Analysis of Khojaly and Srebrenica. Bilig(111), 79-102. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.11104
AMA Güven İF, Asker A. Unraveling the Rationality of Genocide: A Comparative Analysis of Khojaly and Srebrenica. Bilig. Ekim 2024;(111):79-102. doi:10.12995/bilig.11104
Chicago Güven, İbrahim Fevzi, ve Ali Asker. “Unraveling the Rationality of Genocide: A Comparative Analysis of Khojaly and Srebrenica”. Bilig, sy. 111 (Ekim 2024): 79-102. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.11104.
EndNote Güven İF, Asker A (01 Ekim 2024) Unraveling the Rationality of Genocide: A Comparative Analysis of Khojaly and Srebrenica. Bilig 111 79–102.
IEEE İ. F. Güven ve A. Asker, “Unraveling the Rationality of Genocide: A Comparative Analysis of Khojaly and Srebrenica”, Bilig, sy. 111, ss. 79–102, Ekim 2024, doi: 10.12995/bilig.11104.
ISNAD Güven, İbrahim Fevzi - Asker, Ali. “Unraveling the Rationality of Genocide: A Comparative Analysis of Khojaly and Srebrenica”. Bilig 111 (Ekim 2024), 79-102. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.11104.
JAMA Güven İF, Asker A. Unraveling the Rationality of Genocide: A Comparative Analysis of Khojaly and Srebrenica. Bilig. 2024;:79–102.
MLA Güven, İbrahim Fevzi ve Ali Asker. “Unraveling the Rationality of Genocide: A Comparative Analysis of Khojaly and Srebrenica”. Bilig, sy. 111, 2024, ss. 79-102, doi:10.12995/bilig.11104.
Vancouver Güven İF, Asker A. Unraveling the Rationality of Genocide: A Comparative Analysis of Khojaly and Srebrenica. Bilig. 2024(111):79-102.

Ahmet Yesevi Üniversitesi Mütevelli Heyet Başkanlığı