Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar İstihdama Katkı Sağlar mı? Bağımsız Devletler Topluluğuna Yönelik Ampirik Yaklaşım

Öz

Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların (DYY) istihdam üzerine özellikle dolaylı etkilerine yönelik ülke ve ülke grupları bazında var olan literatür, şimdiye kadar çelişkili sonuçlar ortaya çıkarmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, hâlihazırda dünyadaki diğer gelişmekte olan ülkelerle geçiş ekonomilerinde olduğu gibi hayati önemi olan ve daha önce çalışılmayan Bağımsız Devletler Topluluğu ülkeleri için DYY’nin istihdam üzerindeki etkilerini makro düzeyli perspektifle incelemektir. Bu bağlamda, 1995-2013 dönemi için dokuz BDT ülkesine ilişkin panel veri kullanarak, Pedroni’nin (1999, 2004) ve Kao’nun (1999) eş bütünleşme testlerini uygulayarak DYY ile istihdam arasındaki ilişkiyi irdeledik. Çalışmanın bulguları DYY ile istihdam arasında uzun dönemli pozitif ilişkinin varlığına işaret etmenin yanı sıra DYY’nin istihdam yaratıcı etkisinin sınırlı olduğunu da vurgulamaktadır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar,İstihdam,Bağımsız Devletler Topluluğu,Panel Eş bütünleşme Testleri

Does Foreign Direct Investments Contribute to Employment? Empirical Approach for The Commonwealth of Independent States

Öz

The literature regarding the effect of foreign direct investments (FDI) on employment especially indirectly (e.g. wage level, skill based labor demand) for individual countries and country groups has revealed contradictory results so far. This paper aims to analyze the effect of FDI on employment by macro-level perspective for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) which has not been analyzed so far and has still vital importance for those countries like other transition economies and developing countries in the world. In this context, by utilizing the panel data of nine CIS countries over the period 1995- 2013, we explored the nexus between FDI and employment by performing Pedroni’s (1999, 2004) and Kao’s (1999) cointegration tests. Findings of the paper do indicate not only the existence of a long-run positive relationship between FDI and employment, but also the limited employment-generating effect of FDI.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Direct Investments,Employment,Commonwealth of Independent States,Panel Cointegration Tests

Kaynakça

1. Aitken, J., Brian and E. Ann Harrison (1999). “Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela”. American Economic Review 89 (3): 605-618.
2. Ajaga, Elias and Peter Nunnenkamp (2008). “Inward FDI, Value Added and Employment in US States: A Panel Cointegration Approach”. Kiel Institute Working Papers 1420: 1-22.
3. Banga, Rashmi (2005). “Impact of Liberalization on Wages and Employment in Indian Manufacturing Industries”. Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) Working Papers 153: 1-30.
4. Braunstein, Elissa and Gerald Epstein (2002). “Bargaining Power and Foreign Direct Investment in China: Can 1.3 Billion Consumers Tame the Multinationals?”. Political Economy Research Institute Working Paper 45: 1-41.
5. Breitung, Jörg (2000). “The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data”. Advances in Econometrics 15: 161-177.
6. Brincikova, Zuzana and Darmo Lubomir (2014). “The Impact of FDI Inflow on Employment in V4 Countries”. European Scientific Journal 1: 245-252.
7. Dickey, A., David and A. Wayne Fuller (1979). “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74 (366): 427-431.
8. Dickey, A., David and A. Wayne Fuller (1981). “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”. Econometrica 49 (4): 1057-1072.

9. Dufaux, Stefanie (2010). The endeavor to maintain full employment: Do FDI inflows stimulate labor market development in central Europe? Central University of Europe Public Policy MA Thesis Budapest: Hungary.
10. Engle, F., Robert and W.J. Clive Granger (1987). “”Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”. Econometrica 55 (2): 251-276.
11. Federico, Stefano and A. Gaetano Minerva (2008). “Outward FDI and Local Employment Growth in Italy”. Review of World Economics 144 (2): 295-324.
12. Girma, Sourafel et al. (2014). “Estimating Direct and Indirect Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Firm Productivity in the Presence of Interactions between Firms”. Kiel Working Paper 1961:1-39.
13. Hannon, Paul and Sudeep Reddy (2012). “China Edges Out US as Top Foreign Investment Draw Amid World Decline”. The Wall Street Journal. http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970203406404578074683825139320.23 October 2012, [Accessed on 30.10.2015].
14. Hausman, A. Jerry (1978). “Specification Tests in Econometrics”. Econometrica 46 (6): 1251-1271.
15. Hunya, Gabor and Ingo Geishecker (2005). “Employment Effects of Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe”. WIIW Research Reports 321: 1-35.
16. Im, K. So, Pesaran, M. Hashem and Yongcheol Shin (2003). “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”. Journal of Econometrics 115: 53-74.
17. Javorcik Beata (2013). “Does FDI Bring Good Jobs to Host Countries”? Background Paper for the World Development Report 2013. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTNWDR2013/Rees/8258024-1320950747192/8260293-1320956712276/8261091-1348683883703/WDR2013_bp_Does_FDI_ Bring_Good_Jobs.pdf. (Accessed on 28.10.2015).
18. Jayaraman, K., Tiru and Baljeet Singh (2007). “Foreign Direct Investment and Employment Creation in Pacific Island Countries: An Empirical Study of Fiji”. Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade Working Papers 35: 1-17.
19. Jenkins, Rhys (2006). “Globalization, FDI and Employment in Viet Nam”. Transnational Corporations 15 (1): 115-142.
20. Johansen, Soren (1988). “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12 (2-3): 231-254.
21. Kao, Chihwa (1999). “Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data”. Journal of Econometrics 90: 1-44.
22. Kurtishi-Kastrati, Selma (2013). “The Effects of Foreign Direct Investments for Host Country’s Economy”. European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies 5 (1): 26-38.
23. Liu, Liyan (2012). “FDI and Employment by Industry: A Co-Integration Study”. Modern Economy 3: 16-22.
24. Mickiewicz, Tomasz, Slavo Radosevic and Urmas Varblane (2000). “The Value of Diversity: Foreign Direct Investment and Employment in Central Europe during Economic Recovery”. Tartu University Press 2: 1-44.
25. Pedroni, Peter (1999). “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 61 (Special Issue): 653-670.
26. Pedroni, Peter(2004). “Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with Application to the PPP Hypothesis”. Econometric Theory 20 (3): 597-625.
27. Pesaran, M. Hashem and P. Ronald Smith (1995). “Estimating Long-Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels”. Journal of Econometrics 68 (1): 79-113.
28. Pesaran, M. Hashem, Yongcheol Shin and P. Ronald Smith (1999). “Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel”. Journal of the American Statistical Association 94: 621-634.
29. Qiu, D., Larry and Shengzu Wang (2011). “FDI Policy, Greenfield Investment and Cross-Border Mergers”. Review of International Economics 19 (5): 836–851.
30. Rizvi, Syed Zia Abbas and Mohammad Nishat (2009). “The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Employment Opportunities: Panel Data Analysis. Empirical Evidence from Pakistan, India and China”.
31. Toda, Y. Hiro and Taku Yamamoto (1995). “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”. Journal of Econometrics 66 (1-2): 225-250.
32. Vacaflores, E. Diego (2011). “Was Latin America Correct in Relying in Foreign Direct Investment to Improve Employment Rates”. Applied Econometrics and International Development 11 (2): 101-122.
33. Wei, Ying (2013). The effect of FDI on employment in China. MA Thesis. Ames, Iowa: Iowa State University.