İran Yaptırımlarının Kaldırılması: Türkiye için Fırsat mı Tehdit mi?

Öz

İran’a yönelik ekonomik yaptırımlar kaldırıldıktan sonra yabancı yatırımcıların ucuz iş gücü ve cazip yatırım teşviklerinin bulunduğu İran’a yönelmesi Türkiye açısından ticari bir tehdit olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Buna karşılık, son yıllarda yapılan ticari anlaşmalar ve özellikle sınır komşumuz olması dikkate alındığında Türkiye, İran ile ticaretini artırması noktasında önemli fırsatlara sahip bulunmaktadır. Bu bakış açılarından hareketle çalışmada, yaptırımların kaldırılmasından sonra fırsatların değerlendirilebilmesi için, Türkiye’nin İran ile olan ticaretinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla, 1990-2016 döneminde, İran’ın Türkiye, Avrupa Birliği (AB), Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD), Rusya ve Çin ile olan ticareti Gravity Modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarından, belirtilen ülkelere kıyasla Türkiye’nin İran ile sınır komşusu olması ve aralarında tercihli ticaret anlaşmasının yapılması sayesinde büyük bir ticari fırsata sahip olduğu görülmüştür. Sonuç olarak Türkiye, İran ile ticari alanda sahip olduğu fırsatlarını en iyi şekilde değerlendirilebilmesi için ekonomik ilişkilerini artırarak sürdürülebilir hale getirmelidir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik yaptırımlar,İran yaptırımları,İran yaptırımları ve Türkiye,Gravity modeli

Removal of Iran Sanctions: Is It Opportunity or Threat for Turkey?

Öz

After the removal of sanctions against Iran, foreign investors’ interest in Iran, where cheap labor force and attractive investment incentives are located, is regarded as a commercial threat for Turkey. Conversely, Turkey has important opportunities to increase its trade with Iran due shared borders and their trade agreements. In view of this perspective, it is aimed to examine Turkey’s trade with Iran in order to evaluate the opportunities after the removal of sanctions. For this purpose, Iranian trade with Turkey, European Union (EU), United States (USA), Russia and China have been examined using Gravity Model for 1990-2016 period. It has seen that Turkey has a great commercial opportunity compared to the countries mentioned from the analysis results. The analyses have indicated that it is necessary for Turkey to increase its economic relations in order to be able to evaluate its trade opportunities with Iran.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sanctions,Iran sanctions,Iran sanctions and Turkey,Gravity model

Kaynakça

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