Validity of Balanced Growth: Evidence from Turkey

Yıl 2016, Sayı: 76, 205 - 226, 01.06.2016

Mehmet Çınar Sema Ay

Öz

One of the central hypotheses of neoclassical growth literature is the balanced growth hypothesis, which predicts that output, consumption and investment grow at the same rate. Empirically, this implies that consumption and investment must be cointegrated with output. This paper investigates these implications with respect to Turkey, using unit root tests and co-integration techniques. We find that the long-term growth path of Turkish economy is consistent with the balanced-growth hypothesis without a significant structural break

Anahtar Kelimeler

Great ratios, balanced growth, unit roots, co-integration, endogenous structural breaks

Dengeli Büyümenin Geçerliliği : Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Neoklasik Büyüme Teorisi’ne ait literatürün temelinde çıktı, tüketim ve yatırımın aynı oranda büyümesini öngören “dengeli büyüme” hipotezi yer almaktadır. Ampirik olarak bu hipotez, tüketim ve yatırımın çıktı ile kointegre olmasını ifade etmektedir. Çalışma, söz konusu göstergelerin birim kök testleri ve kointegrasyon teknikleri kullanılarak Türkiye için incelenmesini amaçlamaktadır. Türkiye ekonomisinin uzun dönemli büyüme yolunun önemli bir yapısal kırılma yaşamaksızın dengeli büyüme ile uyumlu olduğu görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Büyük oranlar, dengeli büyüme, birim kök, eştümleşme, içsel yapısal kırılma

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