Sanctions and Economic Growth in Iran
Yıl 2025,
Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 53 - 69, 20.10.2025
Tahereh Khavar
Taner Sekmen
Öz
This study examines the effects of economic sanctions on economic growth of the Islamic Republic of Iran. For this purpose, the study uses data from the period 1991–2023 and employs Logit and Probit models. The findings obtained from both models are similar and indicate that the sanctions imposed on Iran during the relevant period reduced the likelihood that the growth rate of GDP per capita would be above the average. As a result, it is understood that economic sanctions are an effective tool in reducing economic growth.
Kaynakça
-
Alhassan, A., issa Taha, A., & Haseki, M. I. (2023). Sanctions and economic growth: Do sanction diversity and level of development matter?. Heliyon, 9(9).
-
Barseghyan, G. (2019). Sanctions and counter-sanctions: What did they do? (No. 24/2019). BOFIT Discussion Papers.
-
Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (2005). Microeconometrics: Methods and applications. Cambridge University Press.
-
Eisazadeh, S., Mahmoovand, R., & Miraali, F. (2022). The effect of economic sanctions on per capita GDP in the Iranian economy using the Synthetic control method. Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 29(100), 289-320.
-
Elmimoghaddam, M., Shokri, M., Abolhasani Hastiani, A., Amini Milani, M., & Mansouri, N. (2023). The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Iran's Economic Growth Rate (Fuzzy Approach). Program and Development Research, 4(3), 79-118.
-
Ezzati, M., & Salmani, Y. (2014). I. nvestigating the direct and indirect effects of sanctions on Iran's economic growth with an emphasis on the foreign sector of the economy. Journal of Security Research, 25(7), 175-149.
-
Fadaee, M., & Derakhshan, M. (2015). Analysis of the short-term and long-term effects of economic sanctions on economic growth in Iran. Journal of Economic Growth and Development, 5(18), 113–132.
-
Filipenko, A., Bazhenova, O., & Stakanov, R. (2020). Economic sanctions: theory, policy, mechanisms. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 6(2), 69-80. Chicago
-
González, F. A. (2022). International sanctions and development: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean (1950–2019). Economic Affairs, 42(1), 70-86.
-
Heydarian, S., Pahlavani, M., & Mirjalili, S. H. (2021). Financial sanctions and economic growth: an intervention time-series approach. International Economics Studies, 51(1), 1-14.
-
Johnston, J., & DiNardo, J. (1997). Econometric methods (4th ed., p. 413). McGraw-Hill.
-
Khateri, Z., Njarzadeh, R., & Agheli-Kohnehshahri, L. (2021). The impact of economic sanctions on capital account in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics (JQE), 18(3), 135-162.
-
Komijani, A., & Heidari, H. (2024). Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks, Oil Price Uncertainty and Economic Sanctions on Economic Growth and Inflation in Iran. The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies, 10(2), 189-218.
-
Kwon, O., Syropoulos, C., & Yotov, Y. V. (2022). Do sanctions affect growth? (No. 9818). CESifo Working Paper.
-
Laudati, D., & Pesaran, M. H. (2023). Identifying the effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy using newspaper coverage. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 38(3), 271-294.
-
Lim, S. (2023). International aid and sustainable development in North Korea: A country left behind with cloaked society (pp. 11-16).
-
Neuenkirch, M., & Neumeier, F. (2015). The impact of UN and US economic sanctions on GDP growth. European Journal of Political Economy, 40, 110-125.
-
Palmer, N. T. (2012). The importance of economic growth. Dublin: CPA Ireland.
-
Pashootanizadeh, H., & Khamehchi, H. (2019). Investigate the Effect of Strategic Policies of Oil Political Economy and sanctions on GDP with Using System Dynamics Approach. Research Letter of Political Science, 14(4), 81-106.
-
Pestova, A., & Mamonov, M. (2019). Should we care?: The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy.
-
Ranjkeshan, A. (2023). An Empirical Analysis of the Economic Effects of Sanctions: A Case Study of Iran and Russia.
-
Splinter, M., & Klomp, J. (2022). Do sanctions cause economic growth collapses?. NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2021, 115.
-
Suleiman, N. M., Ahmed, S. S., Zuhair, M., Mahdi, Z., & Dahash, I. C. (2024). A Socioeconomic Analysis of the Effects of International Sanctions on Targeted Nations. Journal of Ecohumanism, 3(5), 833-850.
-
Tuzova, Y., & Qayum, F. (2016). Global oil glut and sanctions: The impact on Putin’s Russia. Energy Policy, 90, 140-151.
-
Vasisht, A. K. (2007). Logit and probit analysis. IASRI, Library Avenue, New Delhi–110, 12.
İran’da Yaptırımlar ve Ekonomik Büyüme
Yıl 2025,
Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 53 - 69, 20.10.2025
Tahereh Khavar
Taner Sekmen
Öz
Bu çalışma İran İslam Cumhuriyeti’ne uygulanan ekonomik yaptırımların ekonomik büyüme üzerinde yarattığı etkileri incelemektedir. Bu amaçla çalışmada 1991-2023 yılları arası veriler ve Logit ve Probit modelleri kullanılmaktadır. Her iki modelden de edilen bulgular benzerdir ve ilgili dönemde İran’a uygulanan yaptırımların kişi başına GSYH’nın büyüme oranın ortalamasının üzerinde olma olasılığını azalttığı sonucuna varılmaktadır. Sonuç olarak ekonomik yaptırımların ekonomik büyümeyi azaltmada etkili bir araç olduğu anlaşılmaktadır.
Kaynakça
-
Alhassan, A., issa Taha, A., & Haseki, M. I. (2023). Sanctions and economic growth: Do sanction diversity and level of development matter?. Heliyon, 9(9).
-
Barseghyan, G. (2019). Sanctions and counter-sanctions: What did they do? (No. 24/2019). BOFIT Discussion Papers.
-
Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (2005). Microeconometrics: Methods and applications. Cambridge University Press.
-
Eisazadeh, S., Mahmoovand, R., & Miraali, F. (2022). The effect of economic sanctions on per capita GDP in the Iranian economy using the Synthetic control method. Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 29(100), 289-320.
-
Elmimoghaddam, M., Shokri, M., Abolhasani Hastiani, A., Amini Milani, M., & Mansouri, N. (2023). The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Iran's Economic Growth Rate (Fuzzy Approach). Program and Development Research, 4(3), 79-118.
-
Ezzati, M., & Salmani, Y. (2014). I. nvestigating the direct and indirect effects of sanctions on Iran's economic growth with an emphasis on the foreign sector of the economy. Journal of Security Research, 25(7), 175-149.
-
Fadaee, M., & Derakhshan, M. (2015). Analysis of the short-term and long-term effects of economic sanctions on economic growth in Iran. Journal of Economic Growth and Development, 5(18), 113–132.
-
Filipenko, A., Bazhenova, O., & Stakanov, R. (2020). Economic sanctions: theory, policy, mechanisms. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 6(2), 69-80. Chicago
-
González, F. A. (2022). International sanctions and development: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean (1950–2019). Economic Affairs, 42(1), 70-86.
-
Heydarian, S., Pahlavani, M., & Mirjalili, S. H. (2021). Financial sanctions and economic growth: an intervention time-series approach. International Economics Studies, 51(1), 1-14.
-
Johnston, J., & DiNardo, J. (1997). Econometric methods (4th ed., p. 413). McGraw-Hill.
-
Khateri, Z., Njarzadeh, R., & Agheli-Kohnehshahri, L. (2021). The impact of economic sanctions on capital account in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics (JQE), 18(3), 135-162.
-
Komijani, A., & Heidari, H. (2024). Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks, Oil Price Uncertainty and Economic Sanctions on Economic Growth and Inflation in Iran. The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies, 10(2), 189-218.
-
Kwon, O., Syropoulos, C., & Yotov, Y. V. (2022). Do sanctions affect growth? (No. 9818). CESifo Working Paper.
-
Laudati, D., & Pesaran, M. H. (2023). Identifying the effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy using newspaper coverage. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 38(3), 271-294.
-
Lim, S. (2023). International aid and sustainable development in North Korea: A country left behind with cloaked society (pp. 11-16).
-
Neuenkirch, M., & Neumeier, F. (2015). The impact of UN and US economic sanctions on GDP growth. European Journal of Political Economy, 40, 110-125.
-
Palmer, N. T. (2012). The importance of economic growth. Dublin: CPA Ireland.
-
Pashootanizadeh, H., & Khamehchi, H. (2019). Investigate the Effect of Strategic Policies of Oil Political Economy and sanctions on GDP with Using System Dynamics Approach. Research Letter of Political Science, 14(4), 81-106.
-
Pestova, A., & Mamonov, M. (2019). Should we care?: The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy.
-
Ranjkeshan, A. (2023). An Empirical Analysis of the Economic Effects of Sanctions: A Case Study of Iran and Russia.
-
Splinter, M., & Klomp, J. (2022). Do sanctions cause economic growth collapses?. NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2021, 115.
-
Suleiman, N. M., Ahmed, S. S., Zuhair, M., Mahdi, Z., & Dahash, I. C. (2024). A Socioeconomic Analysis of the Effects of International Sanctions on Targeted Nations. Journal of Ecohumanism, 3(5), 833-850.
-
Tuzova, Y., & Qayum, F. (2016). Global oil glut and sanctions: The impact on Putin’s Russia. Energy Policy, 90, 140-151.
-
Vasisht, A. K. (2007). Logit and probit analysis. IASRI, Library Avenue, New Delhi–110, 12.