Abstract
The aim of this study is to examine the determinants of Türkiye’s CDS spreads by jointly considering macroeconomic and financial variables, and to identify which group of variables is more influential on CDS spreads. In this context, quarterly data covering the period 2011Q2–2024Q4 are analyzed within the framework of the ARDL model. The empirical findings indicate that CDS spreads are significantly affected by both macroeconomic and financial variables. However, when the magnitude of the coefficients and their statistical significance levels are taken into account, the results suggest that financial variables have a more dominant impact on CDS spreads compared to macroeconomic variables.
Keywords
References
- Acharya, V. V., & Johnson, T. C. (2007). Insider trading in credit derivatives. Journal of Financial Economics, 84(1), 110–141.
- Alqaralleh, H. S. (2024). From volatility to stability: Understanding the role of macroeconomic factors in sovereign CDS spreads. Eurasian Economic Review, 14(3), 665–707.
- Aizenman, J., Hutchison, M. ve Jinjarak, Y. (2011). What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market mispricing of risk (Working Paper No. 676). University of California, Santa Cruz, Economics Department.
- Aydın, G. K. (2015). Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde CDS primleri ile borsa kapanış endeksleri arasındaki etkileşimin incelenmesi (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). Başkent Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Bankacılık ve Finans Anabilim Dalı, Ankara.
- Aydın, G. K., Hazar, A. ve Çütcü, İ. (2016). Kredi temerrüt takası ile menkul kıymet borsaları arasındaki ilişki: Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülke uygulamaları. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 8(15), 120–134.
- Baltacı, N. ve Akyol, H. (2016). Examination of the macroeconomic variables affecting credit default swaps. Journal of Economics Bibliography, 3(4), 610–625.
- Brown, R. L., Durbin, J. ve Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 37(2), 149–192.
- Can, H. ve Paskaleva, M. (2017). Macroeconomic determinants of CDS: The case of Europe. New Knowledge Journal of Science, 6(3), 63–76.
- Chan, K. C., Fung, H.-G. ve Zhang, G. (2008). On the relationship between Asian sovereign credit default swap markets and equity markets. Journal of Asian Economics, 19(5–6), 408–418.
- Cho, D., & Rhee, D. (2024). Determinants of market‐assessed sovereign default risk: Macroeconomic fundamentals or global shocks? International Finance, 27(1), 35–60.
- Demir, S. (2023). Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde CDS primleri ile borsa endeksleri arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). İstanbul Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
- Demir, S. (2025). Ülke CDS Primleri ile Borsa Endeksi, Döviz Kuru ve Tahvil Faizi Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(3), 459-469. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1673164
- Doshi, H., Jacobs, K. ve Zurita, V. (2017). Economic and financial determinants of credit risk premiums in the sovereign CDS market. Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 7(1), 43–80.
- Edwards, S. (1984). LDC foreign borrowing and default risk: An empirical investigation, 1976–1980. American Economic Review, 74(4), 726–734.
- Ericsson, J., Jacobs, K. ve Oviedo, R. (2005). The determinants of credit default swap premia. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 40(1), 109–132.
- Fontana, A. ve Scheicher, M. (2010). An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds (ECB Working Paper No. 1271). European Central Bank.
- Gujarati, D. N., ve Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic econometrics (5. ed). McGraw-Hill Irwin.
- Gök, R. ve Kara, E. (2021). Testing for causality among CDS, interest, and exchange rates: New evidence from the Granger coherence analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 16(2), 427–445.
- Hammoudeh, S. ve Sarı, R. (2011). Financial CDS, stock market and interest rates: Which drives which? The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 22(3), 257–276.
- Hilscher, J. ve Nosbusch, Y. (2010). Determinants of sovereign risk: Macroeconomic fundamentals and the pricing of sovereign debt. Review of Finance, 14(2), 235–262.
- İltaş, Y., ve Güzel, F. (2024). The Nexus between CDS Premiums and Exchange Rates: Evidence from BRICS Countries and Türkiye. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Arastirmalari Dergisi, 9(4), 796-811.
- Kartal, M. T. (2022). The role of macroeconomic and market indicators in explaining sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spread changes: Evidence from Türkiye. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 25(2), 145–164.
- Kurtkaya, G. M. (2024). CDS primleri ve VIX korku endeksinin ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). Kütahya Dumlupınar Üniversitesi, Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, Kütahya.
- Mazak, M. (2020). Kredi temerrüt takasları (CDS) ve tahviller arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye devlet tahvilleri üzerine bir inceleme (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Isparta.
- Merton, R. C. (1974). On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. The Journal of Finance, 29(2), 449–470.
- Mirgen, Ç. (2022). CDS primlerinin borsa endeksleri üzerine etkisi: Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler üzerine bir araştırma (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). Muğla Sıtkı Koçman Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Muğla.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
- Sarı, S. (2024). Ülke ekonomilerinde bir gösterge olarak kredi temerrüt takası (cds) ve makro belirleyicileri: türkiye örneği. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 19(1), 10-20.
- Sezer, K. (2022). Türkiye’de CDS primleri ile finansal göstergeler arasındaki ilişki: Zaman serisi analizi (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi, Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, Çanakkale.
- Stulz, R. M. (2010). Credit default swaps and the credit crisis. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(1), 73–92.
- Tanyıldızı, H. (2020). CDS primleri ile tahvil gösterge faiz oranları ve finansal endeksler ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). Erzincan Binali Yıldırım Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Erzincan.
- Tellalbaşı, İ. (2013). The risk structure of European sovereign credit default swaps before and after the European debt crisis: Evidence from European periphery countries. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(1), 165–177.
- Wang, A. T., Yang, S.-Y. ve Yang, N.-T. (2013). Information transmission between sovereign debt CDS and other financial factors: The case of Latin America. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 26, 586–601.
- Yümlü, A. (2022). CDS primleri ve borsa endeksleri ilişkisi: BRICS ülkeleri ve Türkiye örneği (Doktora tezi). Başkent Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
- Zhu, H. (2004). An empirical comparison of credit spreads between the bond market and the credit default swap market. BIS Quarterly Review, 1–14.
Abstract
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin CDS primlerinin belirleyicilerini makroekonomik ve finansal değişkenleri birlikte ele alarak incelemek ve CDS primleri üzerinde hangi değişken grubunun daha belirleyici olduğunu ortaya koymaktır. Bu kapsamda, 2011Q2-2024Q4 dönemine ait çeyreklik veriler kullanılarak ARDL modeli çerçevesinde analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, CDS primlerinin hem makroekonomik hem de finansal değişkenlerden istatistiksel olarak anlamlı biçimde etkilendiğini göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, katsayı büyüklükleri ve anlamlılık düzeyleri dikkate alındığında, finansal değişkenlerin CDS primleri üzerindeki etkilerinin makroekonomik değişkenlere kıyasla daha baskın olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Keywords
References
- Acharya, V. V., & Johnson, T. C. (2007). Insider trading in credit derivatives. Journal of Financial Economics, 84(1), 110–141.
- Alqaralleh, H. S. (2024). From volatility to stability: Understanding the role of macroeconomic factors in sovereign CDS spreads. Eurasian Economic Review, 14(3), 665–707.
- Aizenman, J., Hutchison, M. ve Jinjarak, Y. (2011). What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market mispricing of risk (Working Paper No. 676). University of California, Santa Cruz, Economics Department.
- Aydın, G. K. (2015). Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde CDS primleri ile borsa kapanış endeksleri arasındaki etkileşimin incelenmesi (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). Başkent Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Bankacılık ve Finans Anabilim Dalı, Ankara.
- Aydın, G. K., Hazar, A. ve Çütcü, İ. (2016). Kredi temerrüt takası ile menkul kıymet borsaları arasındaki ilişki: Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülke uygulamaları. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 8(15), 120–134.
- Baltacı, N. ve Akyol, H. (2016). Examination of the macroeconomic variables affecting credit default swaps. Journal of Economics Bibliography, 3(4), 610–625.
- Brown, R. L., Durbin, J. ve Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 37(2), 149–192.
- Can, H. ve Paskaleva, M. (2017). Macroeconomic determinants of CDS: The case of Europe. New Knowledge Journal of Science, 6(3), 63–76.
- Chan, K. C., Fung, H.-G. ve Zhang, G. (2008). On the relationship between Asian sovereign credit default swap markets and equity markets. Journal of Asian Economics, 19(5–6), 408–418.
- Cho, D., & Rhee, D. (2024). Determinants of market‐assessed sovereign default risk: Macroeconomic fundamentals or global shocks? International Finance, 27(1), 35–60.
- Demir, S. (2023). Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde CDS primleri ile borsa endeksleri arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). İstanbul Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
- Demir, S. (2025). Ülke CDS Primleri ile Borsa Endeksi, Döviz Kuru ve Tahvil Faizi Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(3), 459-469. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1673164
- Doshi, H., Jacobs, K. ve Zurita, V. (2017). Economic and financial determinants of credit risk premiums in the sovereign CDS market. Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 7(1), 43–80.
- Edwards, S. (1984). LDC foreign borrowing and default risk: An empirical investigation, 1976–1980. American Economic Review, 74(4), 726–734.
- Ericsson, J., Jacobs, K. ve Oviedo, R. (2005). The determinants of credit default swap premia. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 40(1), 109–132.
- Fontana, A. ve Scheicher, M. (2010). An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds (ECB Working Paper No. 1271). European Central Bank.
- Gujarati, D. N., ve Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic econometrics (5. ed). McGraw-Hill Irwin.
- Gök, R. ve Kara, E. (2021). Testing for causality among CDS, interest, and exchange rates: New evidence from the Granger coherence analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 16(2), 427–445.
- Hammoudeh, S. ve Sarı, R. (2011). Financial CDS, stock market and interest rates: Which drives which? The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 22(3), 257–276.
- Hilscher, J. ve Nosbusch, Y. (2010). Determinants of sovereign risk: Macroeconomic fundamentals and the pricing of sovereign debt. Review of Finance, 14(2), 235–262.
- İltaş, Y., ve Güzel, F. (2024). The Nexus between CDS Premiums and Exchange Rates: Evidence from BRICS Countries and Türkiye. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Arastirmalari Dergisi, 9(4), 796-811.
- Kartal, M. T. (2022). The role of macroeconomic and market indicators in explaining sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spread changes: Evidence from Türkiye. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 25(2), 145–164.
- Kurtkaya, G. M. (2024). CDS primleri ve VIX korku endeksinin ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). Kütahya Dumlupınar Üniversitesi, Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, Kütahya.
- Mazak, M. (2020). Kredi temerrüt takasları (CDS) ve tahviller arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye devlet tahvilleri üzerine bir inceleme (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Isparta.
- Merton, R. C. (1974). On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. The Journal of Finance, 29(2), 449–470.
- Mirgen, Ç. (2022). CDS primlerinin borsa endeksleri üzerine etkisi: Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler üzerine bir araştırma (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). Muğla Sıtkı Koçman Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Muğla.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
- Sarı, S. (2024). Ülke ekonomilerinde bir gösterge olarak kredi temerrüt takası (cds) ve makro belirleyicileri: türkiye örneği. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 19(1), 10-20.
- Sezer, K. (2022). Türkiye’de CDS primleri ile finansal göstergeler arasındaki ilişki: Zaman serisi analizi (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi, Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, Çanakkale.
- Stulz, R. M. (2010). Credit default swaps and the credit crisis. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(1), 73–92.
- Tanyıldızı, H. (2020). CDS primleri ile tahvil gösterge faiz oranları ve finansal endeksler ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). Erzincan Binali Yıldırım Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Erzincan.
- Tellalbaşı, İ. (2013). The risk structure of European sovereign credit default swaps before and after the European debt crisis: Evidence from European periphery countries. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(1), 165–177.
- Wang, A. T., Yang, S.-Y. ve Yang, N.-T. (2013). Information transmission between sovereign debt CDS and other financial factors: The case of Latin America. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 26, 586–601.
- Yümlü, A. (2022). CDS primleri ve borsa endeksleri ilişkisi: BRICS ülkeleri ve Türkiye örneği (Doktora tezi). Başkent Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
- Zhu, H. (2004). An empirical comparison of credit spreads between the bond market and the credit default swap market. BIS Quarterly Review, 1–14.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Subjects | International Finance |
| Journal Section | Research Article |
| Authors | |
| Submission Date | December 30, 2025 |
| Acceptance Date | January 30, 2026 |
| Publication Date | February 10, 2026 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.47103/bilturk.1851988 |
| IZ | https://izlik.org/JA53UH54GK |
| Published in Issue | Year 2026 Volume: 8 |
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Junus Ganiev, yüksek lisans ve doktora derecelerini Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi İktisat Bölümü'nden almıştır. Yüksek lisans tezini enflasyon dinamikleri, doktora tezini ise yolsuzluk üzerine yapmıştır. Para politikası, uluslararası ekonomik ilişkiler, ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınma konularında araştırmalar yapmaktadır. Birçok ülkede uluslararası konferanslara katılmıştır. Makaleleri, kitap bölümleri, kitapları, konferans bildirileri bulunmaktadır. Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi İktisat Bölümü'nde tam zamanlı Doçent olarak görev yapmaktadır. ORCID: 0000-0001-8859-5464 (Djal, Campus of Chyngyz Aitmatov, Bishkek, 720038, Kyrgyzstan, +996772 331193, junus.ganiev@manas.edu.kg)
Prof. Dr. NACİ TOLGA SARUÇ
Kişisel Bilgiler
E-posta: naci.saruc@istanbul.edu.tr
Web: https://avesis.istanbul.edu.tr/naci.saruc
Posta Adresi: İstanbul Üniversitesi Merkez Kampüsü 34452 Beyazıt/Fatih-İstanbul Tel: 0 (212) 440 00 00
Uluslararası Araştırmacı ID'leri
ScholarID: D7nVXw4AAAAJ
ORCID: 0000-0003-0716-3040
Publons / Web Of Science ResearcherID: AAA-7387-2020
Yoksis Araştırmacı ID: 118804
Eğitim Bilgileri
Doktora, University of Leicester, Social Sciences, Economics, Birleşik Krallık 1995 - 2001
Yüksek Lisans, University of Leicester, The Faculty Of Social Sciences, Economics, Birleşik Krallık 1994 - 1995
Lisans, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, Maliye Bölümü, Türkiye 1987 - 1992
Yabancı Diller
İngilizce, C1 İleri
Yaptığı Tezler
Doktora, The determinants of tax evasion: Experiments with Turkish subjects , University Of Leicester, Social Sciences, Economics, 2001
Yüksek Lisans, Privatisation of Water Industry in England and Wales, University of Leicester, Social Science Faculty, Economics, 1995
Prof.Dr.Ahmet AK
Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi İİBF Maliye Bölümü Öğretim üyesi Ankara Maliye Okulu ve Çukurova Üniversitesi İİBF / İşletme Bölümünden mezun oldu. Anadolu Ü. SBE / Mali Hukuk Yüksek Lisans ve Mali Hukuk Doktora programlarını tamamladı.
Yüksek Lisans tez konusu; “GVK Açısından Vergi İdaresi ile Vergi Yargısı Arasındaki Yorum Farklılıkları ve Vergi Yargısı Kararlarının Vergi İdaresi Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Doktora tez konusu ise; “Vergi Yasalarının Hazırlanması, Yasama Süreci ve Türkiye Uygulaması” dır.
Meslek hayatına vergi memuru olarak başlayan AK, 14 yıl Vergi Müfettişi ve 4 yıl da Gelir İdaresi Grup Müdürü olarak görev yaptı. Akademik hayatına 2009 yılında Yard. Doç. olarak başlayan AK, 2010 yılında Doçent, 2012-2013 ABD Kansas Üniversitesinde Doç. misafir öğretim üyesi, 2015 yılında Prof. Dr. Bilecik Şeyh Edebali Üniversitesi, 2017 yılında Prof. Dr. Gazi Üniversitesi ve 2018 yılında ve halen Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesinde Prof. Dr. Olarak görev yapmaktadır. Kurucu Maliye Bölüm Başkanlığı, Mali Hukuk Ana Bilim Dalı Başkanlığı, Üniversite ve Fakülte Kurulları üyeliği gibi görevlerde de bulundu. Akademik düzeyde Fransızca ve İngilizce bilmektedir.
Birçok ulusal ve uluslararası projede yürütücü, danışman ve eğitim görevlisi olarak yer aldı. Akademik alanda çok sayıda makale, kitap ve bilimsel çalışmaları yayınlanmıştır. Vergi Yargılama Hukuku (Vergi Davaları) Vergi Uyuşmazlıkları ve İdari Çözüm Yolları, Vergi Hukukunda İştirakler, Vergi Hukuku, Vergi Ceza Hukukunda Suç ve Kabahatler başlıklı kitapları ile alanında bir çok ulusal ve uluslararası kitaplarda bölüm yazarlığı bulunmaktadır. Gazi, Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli, Bilecik Şeyh Edebali ve Dumlupınar Üniversitesinde Lisans ve Lisans üstü düzeyde dersler vermiştir. Tevhidi Düşünce Açısından Vergi Felsefesi konusunda da çalışmalar yapmaktadır.
Vergi Yasalarının Hazırlanması, Mükellef Hakları, Türk vergi Sistemi, Vergi Yargılama Hukuku ve İçtihat Analizi, Vergi Sosyolojisi, Vergi Hukuku, Vergi Ceza Hukuku, Vergi İcra Hukuku ve Uluslararası Vergilendirme konuları genel uzmanlık alanlarıdır.
Merkezi Kaliforniya’da bulunan ΦΒΔ Honor Society For International Scholars tarafından “Uluslararası Bilim Adamı Onur Madalyası” ve Topluluk üyeliğine (2013) layık görüldü.
2013/Haziran ve 2014/Haziran dönemlerinde Polonya Czestochowa University of Technology’de misafir Öğretim Üyesi olarak görev yaptı. (Halen Bilim Kurulu Üyesi / https://pea-journal.eu/scientific-committee.html )
2015 Hindistan’da (Devi Ahilya Üniversititesi) düzenlenen “Invitation for International Conference of Patel Group of Institutions (ITESM – 2015)” başlıklı uluslararası konferansa Türkiye’yi temsilen katıldı “Evaluation of the Effects of Globalization on the Taxes for Income from International Financial Investment in Turkey in Terms of the OECD Model (Taxation on Dividends)” konulu çalışmasıyla 123 çalışma arasında Uluslararası En İyi Araştırma “International the Best Paper” ödülüne layık görüldü.
“The Possible Effects of Personal Income Tax and Value Added Tax on Consumer Behaviors” başlıklı makalesi Harvard Üniversity ve Cornell University tarafından yayınlanmıştır. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2019arXiv191003141A/abstract ;
https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.03141?fbclid=IwAR0ICFVYA6h3r2iaZsaxZdjkqFFkz0HoDwbDil5VvN6ITDE0VnSm44B1fbo
Segull Publications: Director in Board of Development ve International Journal of Tax Economics and Management IJTEM, Yönetim Kurulu Başkanı ve Baş Editörü
Tevhidi Düşünce Derneği Yönetim Kurulu Başkan Yardımcısı ve İLMAR (İlmi ve Metodolojik Araştırmalar Derneği) Yönetim Kurulu üyesi.
BILTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) altında çalışmaktadır.