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Evaluation of Intermediate Goods Imports through Current Account Deficit and Unemployment: Turkish Case

Cilt: 8 16 Ağustos 2026
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Evaluation of Intermediate Goods Imports through Current Account Deficit and Unemployment: Turkish Case

Öz

The relationship between foreign trade and unemployment, particularly through the current account deficit (CAD), remains a debated issue in the economic literature. While imports of final goods are generally associated with adverse employment effects, imports of intermediate goods (IGI), which are essential inputs in domestic production processes, may have different implications for labor markets. In this regard, this study aims to examine the causal relationships between intermediate goods imports, the current account deficit, and unemployment in Türkiye over the period of 1988–2021. The analysis employs the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, which enables causality testing irrespective of the integration properties of the variables. The empirical findings indicate no causal relationship between the current account deficit and unemployment. However, a unidirectional causality running from intermediate goods imports to unemployment is identified. These findings suggest that the structure of imports plays a significant role in shaping labor market outcomes in Türkiye. The study contributes to the literature by focusing on the role of intermediate goods imports and by examining the joint relationship between intermediate goods imports, the current account deficit, and unemployment. The findings also provide important policy implications regarding the sustainability of import-dependent production structures in developing economies like Türkiye. . As the originality of the study, such a study examining the causality relationship between the IGI and the CAD and the unemployment rates could not be found in the literature.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Intermediate Goods Import, Current Account Deficit, Unemployment Rate, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test

Destekleyen Kurum

There is no external financing to declare.

Proje Numarası

NONE

Etik Beyan

There is no need.

Kaynakça

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  4. Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981). “Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root”. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057–1072.
  5. Dinopoulos, E. and Segerstrom, P. (1999). “A Schumpeterian model of protection and relative wages”. American Economic Review, 89(3), 450-472.
  6. Ekinci, R., Tüzün, O., Ceylan, F. and Kahyaoğlu, H. (2017). "Dışa Açıklık ile İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişki: Seçilmiş AB Ülkeleri ve Türkiye Üzerine Zamana Göre Değişen Parametreli Bir Analiz". Sosyoekonomi, 25(31), 45-73.
  7. Göçer, İ. and Gerede, C. (2016). "Cari Açık-Ekonomik Büyüme-Enflasyon ve İşsizlik Açmazında Türkiye: Yeni Nesil Bir Ekonometrik Analiz". Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16(Özel Sayı), 35-46.
  8. Hacker, R. S. and Hatemi-J, A. (2012). "A Bootstrap Test for Causality with Endogenous Lag Length Choice: Theory and Application in Finance". Journal of Economic Studies, 39(2), 144-160.
  9. Hatemi-J, A. and Hacker, R. S. (2009). “Can LR test be helpful in choosing the optimal lag order in the VAR model when information criteria suggest different lag orders?”. Applied Economics, 41(9), 1121-1125.
  10. Kazgan, G. (2012). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Krizler (1929-2009): Ekonomi Politik Açısından Bir İrdeleme. İstanbul: İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları.

Kaynak Göster

APA
Sarıalioğlu Hayali, A., Türktekin, E., & Küçükosman, A. (2026). Evaluation of Intermediate Goods Imports through Current Account Deficit and Unemployment: Turkish Case. BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies, 8. https://doi.org/10.47103/bilturk.1944185
AMA
1.Sarıalioğlu Hayali A, Türktekin E, Küçükosman A. Evaluation of Intermediate Goods Imports through Current Account Deficit and Unemployment: Turkish Case. BILTURK. 2026;8. doi:10.47103/bilturk.1944185
Chicago
Sarıalioğlu Hayali, Ayça, Emel Türktekin, ve Asiye Küçükosman. 2026. “Evaluation of Intermediate Goods Imports through Current Account Deficit and Unemployment: Turkish Case”. BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies 8 (Ağustos). https://doi.org/10.47103/bilturk.1944185.
EndNote
Sarıalioğlu Hayali A, Türktekin E, Küçükosman A (01 Ağustos 2026) Evaluation of Intermediate Goods Imports through Current Account Deficit and Unemployment: Turkish Case. BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies 8
IEEE
[1]A. Sarıalioğlu Hayali, E. Türktekin, ve A. Küçükosman, “Evaluation of Intermediate Goods Imports through Current Account Deficit and Unemployment: Turkish Case”, BILTURK, c. 8, Ağu. 2026, doi: 10.47103/bilturk.1944185.
ISNAD
Sarıalioğlu Hayali, Ayça - Türktekin, Emel - Küçükosman, Asiye. “Evaluation of Intermediate Goods Imports through Current Account Deficit and Unemployment: Turkish Case”. BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies 8 (01 Ağustos 2026). https://doi.org/10.47103/bilturk.1944185.
JAMA
1.Sarıalioğlu Hayali A, Türktekin E, Küçükosman A. Evaluation of Intermediate Goods Imports through Current Account Deficit and Unemployment: Turkish Case. BILTURK. 2026;8. doi:10.47103/bilturk.1944185.
MLA
Sarıalioğlu Hayali, Ayça, vd. “Evaluation of Intermediate Goods Imports through Current Account Deficit and Unemployment: Turkish Case”. BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies, c. 8, Ağustos 2026, doi:10.47103/bilturk.1944185.
Vancouver
1.Ayça Sarıalioğlu Hayali, Emel Türktekin, Asiye Küçükosman. Evaluation of Intermediate Goods Imports through Current Account Deficit and Unemployment: Turkish Case. BILTURK. 01 Ağustos 2026;8. doi:10.47103/bilturk.1944185