Araştırma Makalesi

The Relationship between the Brent Price and Export: Turkish Case

Cilt: 8 17 Eylül 2026
PDF İndir
EN TR

The Relationship between the Brent Price and Export: Turkish Case

Öz

This paper analysis the effect of oil price on Türkiye’s export. When oil price jumps, Türkiye’s export might cripple since the production cost rises at home. Since the Turkish export goods are price sensitive, it cannot pass it to the prices because of the competitive market. We hypothesis that an increase in oil price negatively affects the Turkish export. Our monthly data covers 01/2010 and 02/2026 and all obtained from the TUIK and TCMB web sites. Our dependent variable is Turkish export in USD, and independent variables are Brent oil price in USD, the average of foreign exchange basket ((Euro+USD)/2). After checking ADF unit root test and taking their first differences, our series become stationary. We determined the optimum lag length 3 via VAR. The Johansen Cointegration test shows at least one cointegration among the series. The normalized cointegrating coefficients reveal that an increase in Brent price by 10%, it will reduce export in Türkiye by 2.1%. Likewise, with a rise in basket exchange rate of 10% the exports fell by 1.8%. The Granger causality test reveals that there is a one-way causality from the oil price and exchange rate to Turkish export. As expected, there is no Granger Causality between basket foreign exchange rate and Brent prices in both ways

Anahtar Kelimeler

Export, Oil Prices, Exchange Rate, Johansen Cointegration, Granger Causality

Etik Beyan

This study is based on publicly available and anonymized macroeconomic monthly data covering the period 01/2010-02/2026. The research does not involve any individual-level data, surveys, interviews, or experimental procedures. Therefore, no ethical committee approval was required. Nevertheless, the study has been conducted in full accordance with scientific ethical principles. All data sources have been transparently cited, the analyses have been carried out with objectivity, and the findings have been reported without distortion. The authors declare that no conflict of interest has arisen at any stage of the research and that the study has been carried out within the framework of academic integrity.

Kaynakça

  1. Agmon, T., & Laffer, A. B. (1978). Trade, payments and adjustment: The case of oil price rise. Kyklos, 31(1), 68–85.
  2. Ahad, M., & Anwer, Z. (2020). Asymmetric impact of oil price on trade balance in BRICS countries: Multiplier dynamic analysis. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(2), 2177-2197.
  3. Aksoy, B., & Coşkun, M. (2004). Türkiye'nin yakın dönem dış ticaretindeki değişmeler. Gazi Üniversitesi Gazi Eğitim Fakültesi Dergisi, 24(3), 397–415.
  4. Aktaş, E., Özenç, Ç., & Arıca, F. (2010). The impact of oil prices in Türkiye on macroeconomics. MPRA Paper. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8658/
  5. Allegret, J.-P., Mignon, V., & Sallenave, A. (2014). Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies. CEPII Working Paper.
  6. Allen, R. C. (2011). Global Economic History: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press.
  7. Aydıner, M. (2022). Ham petrol ve altın fiyatlarının Türkiye'nin dış ticaret dengesine etkisi. International Journal of Disciplines Economics & Administrative Sciences Studies, 8(37), 36–43.
  8. Aziz, M. I. A., & Bakar, N. A. (2011). Oil price shocks and macroeconomic activities in Malaysia. The Journal of World Economic Review, 6(2), 123–142.
  9. Bayat, T., Şahbaz, & Akçacı, A. (2013). Petrol fiyatlarının dış ticaret açığı üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Erciyes Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 42, 67-90.
  10. Bayraç, H. N. (2005). Uluslararası petrol piyasasının ekonomik analizi. Finans-Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 499, 6-20.

Kaynak Göster

APA
Aktar, İ., & Elitaş, C. (2026). The Relationship between the Brent Price and Export: Turkish Case. BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies, 8, 369-383. https://doi.org/10.47103/bilturk.1984596
AMA
1.Aktar İ, Elitaş C. The Relationship between the Brent Price and Export: Turkish Case. BILTURK. 2026;8:369-383. doi:10.47103/bilturk.1984596
Chicago
Aktar, İsmail, ve Cemal Elitaş. 2026. “The Relationship between the Brent Price and Export: Turkish Case”. BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies 8 (Eylül): 369-83. https://doi.org/10.47103/bilturk.1984596.
EndNote
Aktar İ, Elitaş C (01 Eylül 2026) The Relationship between the Brent Price and Export: Turkish Case. BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies 8 369–383.
IEEE
[1]İ. Aktar ve C. Elitaş, “The Relationship between the Brent Price and Export: Turkish Case”, BILTURK, c. 8, ss. 369–383, Eyl. 2026, doi: 10.47103/bilturk.1984596.
ISNAD
Aktar, İsmail - Elitaş, Cemal. “The Relationship between the Brent Price and Export: Turkish Case”. BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies 8 (01 Eylül 2026): 369-383. https://doi.org/10.47103/bilturk.1984596.
JAMA
1.Aktar İ, Elitaş C. The Relationship between the Brent Price and Export: Turkish Case. BILTURK. 2026;8:369–383.
MLA
Aktar, İsmail, ve Cemal Elitaş. “The Relationship between the Brent Price and Export: Turkish Case”. BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies, c. 8, Eylül 2026, ss. 369-83, doi:10.47103/bilturk.1984596.
Vancouver
1.İsmail Aktar, Cemal Elitaş. The Relationship between the Brent Price and Export: Turkish Case. BILTURK. 01 Eylül 2026;8:369-83. doi:10.47103/bilturk.1984596