Karbon Emisyonları ile Ekolojik Ayak İzi Aynı Hikâyeyi mi Anlatıyor? Türkiye’de Buğday, Arpa, Pamuk ve Şeker Pancarı Üzerine Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de 1961-2024 döneminde buğday, arpa, pamuk ve şeker pancarı verimlerinin iklim değişkenleri, çevresel baskı göstergeleri ve teknolojik kapasite ile ilişkisini incelemektedir. Çevresel baskı, kişi başına CO2 emisyonları ve kişi başına ekolojik ayak izi ile ölçülmektedir. Ampirik analizde ARDL ve NARDL yaklaşımları birlikte kullanılarak hem uzun dönem ilişkiler hem de kısa ve uzun dönem asimetrik etkiler test edilmektedir. Bulgular, çevresel baskı ile tarımsal verim arasındaki ilişkinin kullanılan göstergeye duyarlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Buğday ve arpa için CO2 temelli modeller zayıf sonuçlar üretirken, ekolojik ayak izi modelleri çevresel baskıyı daha görünür hale getirmektedir. Buna karşılık pamuk ve şeker pancarında her iki çevresel baskı göstergesi de güçlü ve anlamlı uzun dönem etkiler üretmektedir. Sonuçlar ayrıca belirgin bir ürün bazlı heterojenliğe işaret etmektedir. Buğday ve arpada yağış ile mekanizasyon, pamuk ve şeker pancarında ise çevresel baskı daha belirleyici görünmektedir. NARDL bulguları, şokların yönüne bağlı etkilerin ürünler arasında farklılaştığını göstermektedir. Genel olarak çalışma, çevresel baskının ölçüm biçiminin ampirik sonuçları değiştirdiğini ve ürün-spesifik politika tasarımının gerekli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tarımsal Verim
• İklim Değişikliği
• NARDL

Do Carbon Emissions and Ecological Footprint Tell the Same Story? Evidence from Wheat, Barley, Cotton, and Sugar Beet in Türkiye

Öz

This study examines the relationship between climate variables, environmental pressure indicators, technological capacity, and the yields of wheat, barley, cotton, and sugar beet in Turkey over the 1961-2024 period. Environmental pressure is measured by per capita CO2 emissions and per capita ecological footprint. The empirical analysis employs both ARDL and NARDL models to identify long-run relationships as well as short- and long-run asymmetric effects. The findings show that the relationship between environmental pressure and agricultural productivity is sensitive to the choice of indicator. For wheat and barley, CO2-based models yield weak results, whereas ecological-footprint-based models make environmental pressure more visible. By contrast, for cotton and sugar beet, both indicators generate strong and statistically significant long-run effects. The results also reveal substantial cross-crop heterogeneity. While rainfall and mechanization are more prominent in wheat and barley, environmental pressure plays a more central role in cotton and sugar beet. The NARDL findings further show that the effects of shocks differ across crops depending on their direction. Overall, the study demonstrates that environmental measurement matters and that crop-specific policy design is essential.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Agricultural Productivity
• Climate Change
• NARDL

Kaynakça

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