Is There a Trade-off Between Economic Growth and Environmental Quality? Causality Analysis For Turkey

Yıl 2017, Sayı: ICOMEP 2017 ÖZEL SAYISI, 136 - 163, 31.12.2017

Aziz Dayanır , Burhan Durğun , Funda Durğun

Öz

With the industrial revolution, the demand for
fossil fuels that cause emissions of carbon and greenhouse gases has increased.
This increase in demand is a threat to the environment and sustainability.
These harmful emissions that cause climate change affects public health
adversely by distorting the ecological balance. Energy is the main input to
growth and the demand for energy is growing in Turkey. Turkey has difficulties
in the vision of a sustainable economy because energy is mostly generated from
fossil fuels that produce carbon emissions in Turkey. The use of renewable
energy sources, which do not produce harmful emissions, remains low despite its
big potential and recent initiatives in the renewable energy sector. This
situation deepens the negative impact on the environment. In this study, the
effects of economic growth and the use of renewable energy on environmental
pollution in Turkey were investigated for the years 1980-2012. We take gdp per
capita (at constant prices) as an economic growth variable, and renewable
energy consumption (including hydropower) per capita as a renewable energy
variable, and greenhouse gas emission per capita as a greenhouse gas variable. Firstly,
ADF and Lumsdaine-Papell unit root tests for two structural breaks were applied
to the series. Series contains unit root, but first differences of the series
are stationary. The cointegration between the series was tested by the ARDL
bound test and it is found that there is a cointegration between the series. In
the model, the long and short term coefficients of greenhouse gas emission and
growth are statistically significant; while the coefficient of renewable energy
consumption is statistically insignificant. Granger causality test based on the
vector error correction indicates the presence of bi-directional causality
between greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth. Additionally, The Granger
causality test also revealed that there is a bi-directional causality between
greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy consumption. These results
indicate that the growth paradigm in Turkey is highly polluting the
environment. The feedback between growth and greenhouse gas emissions shows
that greenhouse gas emissions are rising when the economy grows and that the
energy generated from fossil fuels is also the engine of the growth. Before
environmental pollution can lead to irreparable damage, a significant
precautions have to be taken in promoting energy efficiency and renewable
energy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Renewable Energy, ARDL Bound Test, Environmental Pollution, Greenhouse Gas Emission

Ekonomik Büyüme, Çevre İçin Fırsat Maliyeti Mi? Türkiye İçin Nedensellik Analizi

Öz

Endüstriyel devrimle
karbon ve sera gazı emisyonuna neden olan fosil yakıtlara artan talep, çevre ve
sürdürülebilirlik açısından tehdit oluşturmaktadır. İklim değişikliklerine
sebep olan bu zararlı emisyonlar ekolojik dengeyi bozarak toplum sağlığını
olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Türkiye, büyümede temel girdi olan enerjinin
artan talebi ve bu talebin çoğunluğunu karbon emisyonu yaratan fosil yakıtların
oluşturması nedeniyle sürdürülebilir ekonomi vizyonunda zorlu bir sürecin
içerisindedir. Zararlı emisyon yaratmayan, temiz, yenilenebilir enerji
kaynaklarının kullanımı yüksek potansiyele ve son yıllardaki girişimlere rağmen
hala düşük seviyelerde kalması çevre konusundaki olumsuzluğu daha da
derinleştirmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye özelinde 1980-2012 yılları için
ekonomik büyüme ve yenilenebilir enerjinin çevre kirliliği üzerindeki etkisi
araştırılmıştır. Ekonomik büyüme değişkeni olarak kişi başına sabit fiyatlarla
gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla; yenilenebilir enerji değişkeni olarak kişi başına
yenilenebilir enerji (hidroelektrik dahil) tüketimi ve sera gazı değişkeni
olarak da kişi başına sera gazı emisyonu kullanılmıştır. Serilere öncelikle ADF
ve iki kırılmalı Lumsdaine-Papell birim kök testleri uygulanmıştır. Düzey
değerlerinde birim kök içeren serilerin birinci farklarında durağanlığa
eriştikleri görülmüştür. Seriler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi ARDL sınır
testi ile sınanmış ve seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğu
bulunmuştur. Modelde sera gazı emisyonu ve büyümenin uzun ve kısa dönem
katsayıları istatistiksel olarak anlamlı; yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin
katsayısı ise istatiksel olarak anlamsız çıkmıştır. Vektör hata düzeltme
modeline dayalı Granger nedensellik testi, sera gazı emisyonu ile ekonomik
büyüme arasında çift yönlü; aynı şekilde sera gazı emisyonu ile yenilenebilir
enerji tüketimi arasında da çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya
koymuştur. Bu sonuçlar Türkiye’deki büyüme paradigmasının yüksek oranda çevre
kirletici olduğunu göstermektedir. Büyüme sera gazı emisyonu arasında bulunan
geri besleme etkisi, ekonomide büyüme gerçekleştiğinde sera gazı emisyonunun
yükseldiğini, aynı anda çoğunluğu karbon emisyonuna neden olan fosil
yakıtlardan sağlanan enerjinin de büyümenin lokomotifi olduğunu ifade
etmektedir. Çevre kirliliği telafi edilemez zararlara yol açmadan önce enerji
verimliliği ve yenilenebilir enerji teşvikleri konusunda kayda değer bir mesafe
kat edilmesi gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yenilenebilir Enerji, ARDL Sınır Testi, Çevre Kirliliği, Sera Gazı Emisyonu

Kaynakça

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