Temporal Analysis of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought in the Middle Mediterranean Basin

Öz

In this study, Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test was used to observe the temporal variation of precipitation, temperature, and flow data of Manavgat Stream, Köprüçay and Dim Stream sub-basins in the Middle Mediterranean Basin. Also, meteorological drought analysis by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), and hydrological drought analysis by using Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) were performed for this study region. M-K trend test was re-applied to define the temporal variation of standardized meteorological and hydrological drought values obtained in 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-months periods.When the trend analysis results were examined, there was an increasing trend in all stations for the SPI method in the 12-month period, while a decreasing trend was observed in the Manavgat and Alanya stations in the RDI method. In the SDI method, a decreasing trend was detected in all periods.The temporal relationship of these drought indices was tried to be explained for the processes in which significant changes were observed according to the trend test. Therefore, the relationships between flow data and SPI as well as RDI were examined at different lag times. When the relationship between flow values of Dim and Manavgat Stream and both SPI and RDI values was examined, it was obtained a high correlation for four-month delay.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Middle Mediterranean Basin
• Standardized Precipitation Index
• Reconnaissance Drought Index
• Streamflow Drought Index
• Trend Analysis

Orta Akdeniz Havzası’nda Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklığın Zamansal Değişimi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Orta Akdeniz Havzası’nda bulunan Manavgat Nehri, Köprüçay ve Dim Çayı alt havzalarına ait yağış, sıcaklık ve akım verilerinin zamansal değişimini gözlemlemek için Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend testi kullanılmıştır. Aynı zamanda, bu bölge için Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi (SYİ) ve Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi (KKİ) ile meteorolojik kuraklık, Akım Kuraklık İndeksi (AKİ) ile hidrolojik kuraklık analizleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. 3-, 6-, 9- ve 12- aylık periyotlarda elde edilen standartlaştırılmış meteorolojik ve hidrolojik kuraklık değerlerinin zamansal değişimini tanımlayabilmek için M-K trend testi tekrarlanmıştır. Trend analizi sonuçları incelendiğinde 12 aylık periyotta SYİ yöntemi için tüm istasyonlarda artan trend varken, KKİ yönteminde ise Manavgat ve Alanya istasyonunda azalan trend görülmüştür. AKİ yöteminde tüm periyotlarda azalan trend tespit edilmiştir.Trend testine göre anlamlı değişimlerin gözlendiği süreçler için bu kuraklık indekslerinin birbirleriyle olan zamansal ilişkisi ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır. Bunun için, akış verileri ile SPI ve ayrıca KKI arasındaki ilişkiler farklı gecikme sürelerinde incelenmiştir. Dim ve Manavgat Çayı için SYİ ve KKİ ile akım değerleri arasındaki ilişki irdelendiğinde 4 ay gecikme ile yüksek korelasyon elde edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• - Orta Akdeniz Havzası
• Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi
• Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi
• Akım Kuraklık İndeksi
• Trend Analizi

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