Türkiye’nin Denizcilik Metanol Tedarik Zincirinin Optimizasyonu: Üretim, İthalat ve Yakıt İkmal Perspektifleri

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de metanolün deniz taşımacılığı tedarik zincirinin planlanmasına yönelik bir optimizasyon temelli metodoloji geliştirmektedir. Model, yeşil ve gri metanol üretimini, ithalatı, taşımacılık lojistiğini ve altyapı yatırımlarını kapsamaktadır. Farklı yeşil yakıt kotası ve karbon fiyatı varsayımlarının ağ yapısı, maliyet tasarrufu ve yakıt dağılımı üzerindeki etkilerini incelemek amacıyla karma tamsayılı doğrusal programlama (MILP) modeli kullanılarak dört politika temelli senaryo karşılaştırılmıştır. Sonuçlar, her durumda İzmir’in merkez terminal noktası olarak belirdiğini, Aliağa–STAR bölgesinde iki üretim tesisinin ve ülke genelindeki on ana yakıt ikmal (bunkering) terminalinin faaliyete geçtiğini göstermektedir. Ağ yapısı, senaryolara göre değişmezken, tedarik yapısı ve buna bağlı maliyetler önemli ölçüde farklılık göstermiştir. Ortalama tedarik maliyetleri ton başına 845 $ ile 1005.8 $ arasında değişmekte olup, %30 yeşil yakıt stratejisine sahip Senaryo 1 en düşük maliyetli çözümü sunmuştur. Yeşil yakıt kotasının %45’e çıkarılması aşırı derecede maliyetli olurken, %25’e düşürülmesi ise gri metanol üzerindeki yüksek karbon cezası nedeniyle maliyet avantajı sağlamamıştır. Bazı durumlarda toplam arzın %62’si ithalattan karşılanmıştır; bu da ülkenin dış pazarlara bağımlı olduğunu ve yerli yeşil üretimin sınırlı kaldığını göstermektedir. Bulgular, yeşil ve gri metanol arasındaki maliyet farkını ve karbonsuzlaşma ile ekonomik erişilebilirlik arasındaki ödünleşimi doğrulayarak, uluslararası tekno-maliyet literatürüyle uyum göstermektedir. Çalışma, yeşil metanolün denizcilik sektörüne sürdürülebilir ve ekonomik açıdan uygulanabilir biçimde entegre edilebilmesi için politika teşvikleri ve altyapı planlamasının gerekliliğini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Alternatif yakıtlar
• Yeşil metanol
• Denizcilikte karbonsuzlaşma
• Karma tamsayılı doğrusal programlama
• Tedarik zinciri optimizasyonu

Optimizing Türkiye’s Maritime Methanol Supply Chain: Production, Import, and Bunkering Perspectives

Öz

This study develops an optimization-type methodology for planning the supply chain for sea shipment of methanol in Türkiye, including green and grey methanol production, imports, transportation logistics, and investment in infrastructure. Four policy-based scenarios were compared using a mixed-integer linear programming model to examine the impact of varying green fuel quotas and carbon prices on network structure, cost-saving, and fuel distribution. The results consistently identify İzmir as the central terminal hub, with two plants in the Aliağa–STAR region and all ten major bunkering terminals being activated. The network structure was scenario-invariant but supply structure and associated costs differed extensively. The mean supply costs ranged from 845 $/t to 1005.8 $/t, Scenario 1 being the lowest-cost solution under a 30% green fuel strategy. Increasing the quota to 45% was prohibitively expensive, and reducing it to 25% was not necessarily cost-saving due to the higher carbon penalty on grey methanol. In some cases, as much as 62% of supply was drawn from imports, which indicates that the country is dependent on external markets, whereas domestic green production remained limited. The findings are consistent with international techno-economic literature, validating both the cost gap between green and grey methanol and decarbonization vs. affordability trade-offs. The study emphasizes that policy incentives and infrastructure planning are required to make a sustainable and economically viable integration of green methanol in the shipping sector.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Alternative fuels
• Green methanol
• Maritime decarbonization
• Mixed-integer linear programming
• Supply chain optimization

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