The Relationship between Private Sector Credits and Economic Growth in Turkey: 1998-2020

Öz

In this study, the effect of credits to the private sector to the economic growth in Turkey is investigated by using internal and external macroeconomic determinants of economic growth. The study utilizes the variables of credits to the private sector (CREDIT), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), general government final consumption expenditure (GFCE), real effective exchange rate (REER), interest rate (INTR), capital inflows (CAPFLOWS), total factor productivity (TFP) as the domestic macroeconomic variables, and global economic policy uncertainty index (GEPU) as the external factor that affect the economic growth in Turkey. The ARDL approach over the period of 1998:Q1 to 2020:Q1 is applied for the estimations. The study results show that the effects of the changes in domestic and external variables on economic growth are significant with expected signs. The empirical results confirmed that CREDIT and GFCF have a positive effect on growth, whereas GFCE, LREER, CAPFLOWS, and TFP variables have negative effect on growth. In the short term, the effects of the current and lagged values of the variables differ.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• economic growth
• credit
• capital inflow

Türkiye'de Özel Sektöre Sağlanan Kredilerle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: 1998-2020

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de özel sektöre sağlanan kredilerin (CREDIT) ekonomik büyümeye etkileri, ekonomik büyümenin iç ve dış makroekonomik belirleyicileri kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmada 1998: Q1 - 2020: Q1 dönemini kapsayan veriler kullanılarak özel sektöre sağlanan krediler (CREDIT), brüt sabit sermaye oluşumu (GFCF), genel devlet nihai tüketim harcamaları (GFCE), reel efektif döviz kuru (REER), faiz oranı (INTR), sermaye girişleri (CAPFLOWS), toplam faktör verimliliği (TFP) ve küresel ekonomi politika belirsizlik endeksinin (GEPU) ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki kısa ve uzun vadeli etkileri ARDL yöntemi ile analiz edilmektedir. Çalışma sonuçları, yurtiçi ve yurt dışı değişkenlerindeki değişimlerin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin beklenen işaretlerle önemli ölçüde uyumlu olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlara göre, uzun vadede CREDIT ve GFCF değişkenlerinin pozitif, GFCE, LREER, CAPFLOWS, TFP değişkenlerinin büyüme üzerinde negatif etkiye sahip olduğu görülmüştür. Kısa vadede ise değişkenleri cari ve gecikmeli değerlerinin etkileri farklılaşmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ekonomik büyüme
• kredi
• sermaye girişi
• gepu
• ardl

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