TESTING CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION, REAL INCOME AND PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Öz

Jıı this paper, we examine the causal relationship amongst changes in energy consumption, real income growth and domestic inflation within the conditions of Turkish economy. Based on a contemporaneous multivariate co-integrating estimation methodology, our estimation results indicate that a distinction between various categories of enei'gy consumption needs to l>e made in order for the causality issues of interest to be elucidated. We find as a vital point to be emphasized that domestic inflationary framework is highly endogenous to all the model constructions and thus subject to the changes in especially enei'gy consumption. It is also significant that there seems to be a long-ran causal relationship between the variables when the levels of industrial consumption are used as the relevant enei'gy consumption data since they have highly endogenous characteristics against each other within the causality analysis. We conclude that energy policies ex-ante designed have the power of affecting domestic inflation significantly. We also suggest that, for the case of industrial energy consumption data, energy conservation policies may lead to harmful results for the real income growth process though the latter issue is not the relevant case for the residential and commercial enei'gy consumption and total enei'gy consumption data.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enei'gy Consumption,Real Income,Prices,Causality,Turkish Economy

TESTING CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION, REAL INCOME AND PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Öz

Bu çalışmada, enerji tüketimindeki değişimler, reeel gelir büyümesi ve yurtiçi enflasyon arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri Türkiye ekonomisi koşullarında araştırılmaktadır. Çağdaş çok değişkenli eşbütünleşim tahmin yöntemi kullanılarak elde ettiğimiz bulgular, enerji tüketiminin araştırılan nedensellik ilişkilerinin aydınlatılabilmesi için, çeşitli kategorilere ayrıştırılması gerektiğini göstermektedir. Vurgulanması gereken temel bulgularımız, yurtiçi enflasyonist yapının oluşturulan modeller için oldukça içsel bir yapıya sahip ve özellikle enerji tüketimindeki değişikliklere karşı duyarlı ve sanayi tüketimi uygun enerji tüketim verisi olarak dikkate alındığı zaman, nedensellik çözümlemesi içerisinde birbirlerine karşı oldukça içsel bir yapıda tahmin edilen değişkenlerin uzun dönemli bir nedensellik ilişkisi içerisinde oldukları şeklinde belirtilebilir. Sonuç olarak, beklentiler doğrultusunda tasarlanan enerji politikalarının ekonomi içerisinde belirleyici bir şekilde yurtiçi enflasyonu etkileme gücüne sahip olduğu ve ev halkının kullanım amacına yönelik ya da ticari içerikli enerji tüketiminin, toplam enerji tüketiminden ziyade sanayi enerji tüketimi dikkate alındığı zaman, enerji tasarruf politikalarının reel gelir büyüme süreci açısından zararlı olabilecek sonuçlar meydana getirebileceği görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enerji Tüketimi, Reel Gelir, fiyatlar, Nedensellik, Türkiye Ekonomisi

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