Estimating the recurrence of earthquakes with statistical methods in the city of Bingöl, Eastern Türkiye: a district-based approach

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 172 Sayı: 172, 15 - 30, 19.12.2023

Sadık Alashan Kenan Akbayram Ömer Faruk Nemutlu

https://doi.org/10.19111/bulletinofmre.1239185

Cited By: 1

Öz

This study discusses the temporal distribution of earthquake magnitudes in the city of Bingöl, near Karlıova Triple Junction. We determine the probability distributions and return periods of earthquakes for all districts of Bingöl. Bingöl has eight districts; namely Adaklı, Central, Genç, Karlıova, Kiğı, Solhan, Yayladere, and Yedisu. In six of them, active faults were mapped previously
(Adaklı, Central, Genç, Karlıova, Solhan, and Yedisu). We consider 5 time-dependent probability distributions for analysis. Using the annual maximum earthquake magnitudes, the best fit arises
from the Gumbel distribution for Central, Karlıova, and Adaklı Districts. For the Genç District, where the least maximum earthquake magnitude is reported, the Weibull distribution gives the best
fit. The return period and maximum annual earthquake magnitude relations suggest the following results. For the Central and Karlıova Districts along which maximum earthquake magnitudes are
reported, every 250 years a 6.7 M, and 7.2 M occurs respectively. These results are compatible with the results of paleo-seismological data reported along the NAFZ and the EAFZ. For a 10-year
return period, earthquake magnitudes reach 3.9 and 5.1 in all districts. It is important to note that in the Yedisu District, the maximum earthquake magnitudes seem as 5.1 M for the 1000-year return
period, incompatible with previously published findings probably because of low quality seismic data in this region.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bingöl, Earthquake Magnitude, Risk, Probability Functions, Karlıova Triple Junction.

Teşekkür

We sincerely thank Kemal Kıranşan for supplying the elevation contours and city borders in Figure 1b, three anonymous reviewers, Editor-in-Chief Halim Mutlu, Associate Editors Şule Gürboğa, and Eren Pamuk for their valuable criticism and help during the review process.

Kaynakça

• AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency). http:/www.afad.gov.tr (April 23,2021).
• Akbayram, K., Kıranşan, K., Özer, Ç., Varolgüneş, S. 2021. The surface deformation of the 2020 Doğanyol- Sivrice earthquake (Mw 6.8) and the earlier events suggest Mw˂7.0 earthquakes do not create significant surface slip along the East Anatolian Fault Zone (unpublished).
• Akbayram, K., Bayrak, E., Pamuk, E., Özer, Ç., Kıranşan, K., Varolgüneş, S. 2022a. Dynamic sub-surface characteristic and the active faults of the Genç District locating over the Bingöl Seismic Gap of the East Anatolian Fault Zone, Eastern Turkey. Natural Hazards 114(1) ,825-847.
• Akbayram, K., Kıranşan, K., Varolgüneş, S., Büyükakpınar, P., Karasözen, E., Bayık, Ç. 2022b. Multi- disciplinary analyses of the rupture characteristic of 2020 June 14 Mw 5.9 Kaynarpınar (Karlıova, Bingöl) earthquake reveals NE-SW trending active faulting along the Yedisu Seismic Gap of the North Anatolian Fault Zone towards Turkish- Iranian Plateau. International Journal of Earth Sciences 1-21.
• Akkar, S., Boore, D. M., Gülkan, P. 2008. An evaluation of the strong ground motion recorded during the May 1, 2003 Bingol Turkey, earthquake. Journal of Earthquake Engineering 9, 173–197.
• Alkan, H., Bayrak, E. 2022. Coulomb stress changes and magnitude - frequency distribution for Lake Van region. Bulletin of the Mineral Research and Exploration 168, 141-156.
• Altuncu P. S., Aksarı, D., Ergün, T., Teoman, U. M., Pınar, A. 2019. The December 2nd, 2015 Bingöl, Eastern Anatolia-TURKEY, earthquake (Mw = 5.3): A rupture on optimally oriented fault plane. Journal of Asian Earth Science 173, 88–97.
• Ambraseys, N. 1970. Some characteristic features of the Anatolian fault zone. Tectonophysics 9, 143–165.
• Ambraseys, N. 1975. Studies in historical seismicity and tectonics. Geodynamics.
• Ambraseys, N. 1989. Temporary seismic quiescence: SE Turkey. Geophysical Journal International 96, 311–331.
• Ambraseys, N., Jackson, J. 1998. Faulting associated with historical and recent earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Geophysical Journal International 133, 390–406.
• Anagnos, T., Kiremidjian, A. 1988. A review of earthquake occurrence models for seismic hazard analysis. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics 3, 3–11.
• Arpat, E., Şaroğlu, F. 1972. The East Anatolian Fault System: thoughts on its development. Bulletin of the Mineral Research And Exploration 78, 33–39.
• Bak, P., Christensen, K., Danon, L., Scanlon, T. 2002. Unified scaling law for earthquakes. Physical Review Letters 88, 178501.
• Balun, B., Nemutlu, Ö.F., Sarı, A. 2020. Estimation of probabilistic hazard for Bingol province, Turkey. Earthquakes and Structures 18 (2), 223-231.
• Barka, A., Toksöz, M., Kadinsky-Cade, K., Gülen, L. 1987. The segmentation, seismicity and earthquake potential of the eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. Bulletin of Earth Science 14, 337– 352.
• Campbell, K., Thenhaus, P., Bamhard, T., Hampson, D. 2002. Seismic hazard model for loss estimation and risk management in Taiwan. Soil Dynamic Earthquake Engineering 22, 743–754.
• Çetin, H., Güneyli, H., Mayer., L. 2003. Paleoseismology of the Palu-Lake Hazar segment of the East Anatolian fault zone, Turkey. Tectonophysics 374, 163-197.
• Çoban, K. H., Sayil, N. 2020a. Different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrences along the North and East Anatolian fault zones. Arabian Journal of Geosciences 13 (18), 1-16.
• Çoban, K. H., Sayil, N. 2020b. Conditional Probabilities of Hellenic Arc Earthquakes Based on Different Distribution Models. Pure and Applied Geophysics 177 (11), 5133–5145.
• Çobanoğlu, İ., Bozdağ, Ş., Dinçer, İ., Erol, H. 2006. Statistical Approaches to Estimate the Recurrence of Earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. İstanbul Yerbilimleri Dergisi 19, 91–100. Demirtaş, R. 2019. 12 Mart 2005 (M=5.6), 14 Mart 2005 (M=5.9) ve 24 Mart 2005 (M=5.4) Karlıova (Bingöl) Depremleri. Ankara.
• Dewey, J., Şengör, A. 1979. Aegean and surrounding regions: complex multiplate and continuum tectonics in a convergent zone. Geological Society of America Bulletin 84–92.
• Duman, T. Y., Emre, Ö. 2013. The East Anatolian Fault: geometry, segmentation and jog characteristics. Geological Society, London, Special Publications 495–529.
• Emre, Ö., Duman, T., Özalp, S., Elmacı, H., Olgun, Ş., Şaroğlu, F. 2013. Active Fault Map of Turkey with an Explanatory Text 1:1.250.000 scale, Special Publication Series 30. General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA), Turkey.
• Eyidoğan, H., Guclu, U., Utku, Z., Degirmenci, E. 1991. Türkiye Büyük Depremleri Makro-Sismik Rehberi (1900–1988). ITU Maden Fakültesi Jeofizik Mühendisliği Bölümü, İstanbul.
• Gumbel, E. J. 1941. The Return Period of Flood Flows. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 12, 163-190.
• Gürboğa, Ş. 2016. The termination of the North Anatolian Fault System (NAFS) in Eastern Turkey. International Geological Review 58, 1557–1567.
• Hagiwara, Y. 1974. Probability of earthquake occurrence as obtained from a Weibull distribution analysis of crustal strain. Tectonophysics 23, 313–318.
• Hainzl, S., Scherbaum, F., Beauval, C. 2006. Estimating Background Activity Based on Interevent-Time Distribution. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, 313–320.
• Herece, E. 2008. Atlas of East anatolian fault. MTA Special Publication Series 13.
• Hubert-Ferrari A., Lamair, L., Hage, S., Schmidt, S., Çağatay, M. N., Avşar, U. 2020. A 3800 yr paleoseismic record (Lake Hazar sediments, eastern Turkey): Implications for the East Anatolian Fault Seismic Cycle. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 538, 116-152.
• Kalafat, D., Kekovalı, K., Güneş, Y., Yılmazer, M., Kara, M., Deniz, P., Berberoğlu, M. 2009. A catalogue of source parameters of moderate and strong earthquakes for Turkey and its surrounding area (1938–2008). Boğaziçi University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute.
• Kıranşan, K., Akbayram, K., Avci, V. 2021. Effects of Active Tectonism on Geomorphological Structure in Bingöl Basin and Its Surroundings. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi 12, 1110–1129.
• KOERI (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute). http://koeri.boun.edu.tr (May 12, 2022).
• Kottegoda, N. T., Rosso, R. 2008. Applied Statistics for Civil and Environmental Engineers, Engineering.
• Köküm, M., Özçelik, F. 2020. An example study on re- evaluation of historical earthquakes: 1789 Palu (Elazığ) earthquake, Eastern Anatolia, Turkey. Bulletin of the Mineral Research and Exploration. 161, 157-172.
• McKenzie, D. 1972. Active tectonics of the Mediterranean region. Geophysics Journal International 30, 109–185.
• Nalbant, S., McCloskey, J., Steacy, S., Barka, A. 2002. Stress accumulation and increased seismic risk in eastern Turkey. Earth Planetary Science Letters 195, 291–298. Nishenko, S., Buland, R. 1987. A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 77, 1382–1399.
• Öztürk, S., Bayrak, Y., Çınar, H., Koravos, G. C., Tsapanos, T. M. 2008. A quantitative appraisal of earthquake hazard parameters computed from Gumbel I method for different regions in and around Turkey. Natural Hazards 47 (3), 471–495
• Öztürk, S. 2011. Characteristics of seismic activity in the Western, Central and Eastern parts of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey: Temporal and spatial analysis. Acta Geophysica 59, 209–238.
• Öztürk, S., Bayrak, Y. 2012. Spatial variations of precursory seismic quiescence observed in recent years in the eastern part of Turkey. Acta Geophysica 60, 92–118.
• Parvez, I. A., Ram, A. 1999. Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazards in the Indian Subcontinent. Pure and Applied Geophysics 154, 23–40.
• Pasari, S., Dikshit, O. 2015. Earthquake interevent time distribution in Kachchh, Northwestern India. Earth Planet and Space 67, 1-17.
• Pasari, S., Dikshit, O. 2018. Stochastic earthquake interevent time modeling from exponentiated Weibull distributions. Natural Hazards 90, 823–842.
• Polat, O., Gök, E., Ylmaz, D. 2008. Earthquake hazard of Aegean Extension Region, Turkey. Turkish Journal of Earth Science 17, 593–614.
• Rikitake, T. 1974. Probability of earthquake occurrence as estimated from crustal strain. Tectonophysics 23, 299–312. Sançar, T., Zabcı, C., Akyüz, H., Karabacak, V., Altunel,E. 2009. Late Holocene Activity of Kargapazari Segment, Eastern Part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Bingöl, Turkey. EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 7710.
• Sançar, T., Zabci, C., Akyüz, H., Sunal, G., Villa, I. 2015. Distributed transpressive continental deformation: The Varto Fault Zone, eastern Turkey. Tectonophysics 661, 99–111.
• Sançar, T., Zabcı, C., Akcar, N., Karabacak, V., Yeşilyurt, S., Yazıcı, M., Akyüz, H., Öztüfekçi Önal, A., Ivy-Ochs, S., Christl, M., Vockenhuberf, C. 2020. Geodynamic importance of the strike-slip faults at the eastern part of the Anatolian Scholle: Inferences from the uplift and slip rate of the Malatya Fault. Jounal of Asian Earth Science 188, 104091.
• Selçuk, A., Erturaç, M., Karabacak, V., Sançar, T., Kul, A., Yavuz, M. 2021. Active Tectonic Setting and Paleoseismicity of the Sancak-Uzunpazar Fault Zone. Turkish Jornal of Earthquake Research 3, 75–91.
• Şahin, Ş., Öksüm, E. 2021. The relation of seismic velocity and attenuation pattern in the East Anatolian fault zone with earthquake occurrence: Example of January 24, 2020 Sivrice Earthquake. Bulletin of the Mineral Research and Exploration 165, 141- 161.
• Şengör, A., 1979. The North Anatolian transform fault: its age, offset and tectonic significance. Journal of Geological Society of London 136, 269–282.
• Şengör, A. 1980. Türkiye neotektoniğinin esasları. Türkiye Jeoloji Kurumu Konferans Serisi 2. Ankara, 40.
• Şengör, A., Görür, N., Şaroğlu, F. 1985. Strike-slip faulting and related basin formation in zones of tectonic escape: Turkey as a case study, in: Biddle, K., Christie-Blick, N. (Eds.), Strike-Slip Deformation, Basin Formation and Sedimentation. Society of Economic Paleontologists and Mineralogists, Tulsa, OK, 227–264.
• Seyitoğlu, G., Esat, K., Kaypak, B., Moosarreza, T., Bahadır, A. 2019. Internal Deformation of Turkish-Iranian Plateau in the Hinterland of Bitlis-Zagros Suture Zone. Developments in Structural Geology and Tectonics 3, 161–244.
• Shelly, D., Beroza, G., Ide, S. 2007. Non-volcanic tremor and low-frequency earthquake swarms. Nature 446, 305–307.
• Tan, O., Tapirdamaz, M., Yörük, A. 2008. The Earthquake Catalogues for Turkey. Turkish Journal Earth Science 17, 405–418.
• Tan, O., Pabucu, Z., Taprdamaz, M. C., Nan, S., Ergintav, S., Eyidoǧan, H., Aksoy, E., Kuluöztürk, F. 2011. Aftershock study and seismotectonic implications of the 8 March 2010 Kovanclar (Elazǧ, Turkey) earthquake (MW = 6.1). Geophysical Research Letters 38.
• Taymaz, T., Eyidog̃an, H., Jackson, J. 1991. Source parameters of large earthquakes in the East Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey). Geophysical Journal International 106, 537–550.
• Tripathi, J. 2006. Probabilistic assessment of earthquake recurrence in the January 26, 2001 earthquake region of Gujrat, India. Journal of Seismology 10, 119–130.
• Ulusay, R., Aydan, Ö. 2005. Characteristics and geo- engineering aspects of the 2003 Bingöl (Turkey) earthquake. Journal of Geodynamics 40, 334–346.
• USGS (United States Geological Survey). http://usgs.gov. June,2022.
• Utkucu, M., Budakoğlu, E., Çabuk, M. 2018. Teleseismic finite-fault inversion of two M w = 6.4 earthquakes along the East Anatolian Fault Zone in Turkey: the 1998 Adana and 2003 Bingöl earthquakes. Arabian Journal of Geoscience 11, 1–14.
• Utsu, T. 1984. Estimation of parameters for recurrence models of earthquakes. Bulletin of Earthquake Research Institute 59, 53–55.
• Wu, C., Shelly, D., Gomberg, J., Peng, Z., Johnson, P. 2013. Long-term changes of earthquake inter-event times and low-frequency earthquake recurrence in central California. Earth Planetory Science Letters 368, 144–150.
• Yadav, R., Tripathi, J., Rastogi, B., Das, M., Chopra, 2010. Probabilistic assessment of earthquake recurrence in northeast India and adjoining regions. Pure Applied Geophysics 167, 1331–1342.
• Zabcı, C., Akyüz, H. S., Sançar, T. 2017. Palaeoseismic history of the eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault (Erzincan, Turkey): Implications for the seismicity of the Yedisu seismic gap. Journal of Seismology 21, 1407–1425.