İklim Değişikliğinin Türkiye’nin Güney Marmara Bölgesi'ndeki Yağış Dinamikleri Üzerindeki Etkileri

Yıl 2024, , 123 - 141, 14.06.2024

Ali Kaan Yetik , Burak Nazmi Candoğan

https://doi.org/10.20479/bursauludagziraat.1442146

Öz

Yağış dağılımının dinamiklerini anlamak, özellikle iklim değişikliğinin etkilerine duyarlı bölgelerde etkili su yönetimi stratejileri için hayati öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışma, referans dönem (1971-2000) yıllık ve sezonluk ortalamalarını gelecek dönem (2061-2090) ortalamaları ile karşılaştırarak Türkiye'nin Güney Marmara Bölgesi'ndeki yağışlarda öngörülen değişiklikleri incelemektedir. Farklı iklim modelleri (GFDL, HADGEM ve MPI) ve Temsili Konsantrasyon Senaryoları (RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5) kullanılarak gerçekleştirilen analizler, yağış eğilimleri belirlemek için Mann-Kendall testi ve Sen'in eğim yöntemlerini içermektedir. Temel bulgular, Çanakkale, Balıkesir, Bursa, Bilecik ve Yalova illerinde su kaynakları yönetimi, tarım ve ekosistem dayanıklılığına ilişkin çıkarımlarla birlikte, farklı modeller ve senaryolar arasında yağış tahminlerinde önemli farklılıklar olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Referans dönemine göre yıllık yağış değişim oranlarına göre Balıkesir ili, HADGEM ve MPI model simülasyonlarında sırasıyla %8.81 ve %7.09 ortalamalarıyla iklim değişikliğine karşı en dayanıklı il olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Mevsimsel değişimler dikkate alındığında; MPI RCP8.5 senaryosuna göre Bilecik ilinde yağışlarda önemli bir düşüş yaşanarak, değişimin referans döneme göre -%53.78'e kadar ulaşması beklenmektedir. Mann-Kendall testi ile belirlenen yıllık yağış değerlerinde dönem içi değişimlerde en kuvvetli düşüş eğilimi MPI RCP8.5 senaryo koşullarında Z=-2.03 Bilecik ilinde ile tespit edilmiştir. Öte yandan, sezonluk değişimler açısından, GFDL RCP4.5 koşullarında en kuvvetli düşüş trendini Bursa ili göstermiştir (Z=-2.89). Çalışma, Güney Marmara Bölgesi'ndeki iklim değişkenliği ve bu değişim ortamında sürdürülebilir su kaynakları yönetimi için mekânsal olarak değişen yağış düzenlerinin ve atmosfer olaylarında potansiyel değişimlerin dikkate alınmasının önemini vurgulamaktadır. Bu bulgular, gelecekteki iklim senaryolarının ortaya çıkardığı zorlukların üstesinden gelmek için adaptasyon stratejileri geliştirmede rol olan karar vericiler ve paydaşlar için önemli bilgiler sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yağış, iklim değişikliği, Marmara Bölgesi, iklim modelleri, Mann-Kendall testi

Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation Dynamics in the Southern Marmara Region of Turkey

Öz

Understanding the dynamics of precipitation patterns is crucial for effective water management strategies, especially in regions vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This study investigates the projected changes in annual and seasonal precipitation across the Southern Marmara Region of Turkey by comparing the averages of the reference period (1971-2000) with those of the future period (2061-2090). Employing multiple climate models (GFDL, HADGEM, and MPI) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the analysis includes Mann-Kendall trend tests and Sen's slope method to determine trends in precipitation patterns. Key findings reveal significant variability in precipitation projections among different models and scenarios, with implications for water resource management, agriculture, and ecosystem resilience in provinces such as Çanakkale, Balıkesir, Bursa, Bilecik, and Yalova. According to the annual rainfall change rates relative to the reference period, Balıkesir province stands out as the most resilient province against climate change with average rates of 8.81% and 7.09% under the HADGEM and MPI model simulations, respectively. Regarding seasonal variations, Bilecik province is expected to experience a significant decrease in rainfall, reaching up to -53.78% under the MPI RCP8.5 scenario. In terms of within-period changes in annual rainfall values, the strongest declining trend was identified with Z=-2.03 in Bilecik province under the MPI RCP8.5 scenario conditions by the Mann-Kendall test. On the other hand, for seasonal variations, Bursa province demonstrates the most robust decreasing trend under the GFDL RCP4.5 conditions (Z=-2.89). The study emphasizes the importance of considering spatially varying precipitation patterns and potential shifts in atmospheric circulation for sustainable water resource management amidst climate variability and change in the Southern Marmara region. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers and stakeholders involved in developing adaptive strategies to address the challenges posed by future climate scenarios.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Precipitation, climate change, Marmara Region, climate models, Mann-Kendall test

Etik Beyan

This study does not require ethics committee approval. The article has been prepared in accordance with research and publication ethics.

Teşekkür

The authors are gratefully acknowledged to the Turkish State Meteorological Service for sharing meteorological data used for this study.

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