Türkiye’de Politik Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi: ARDL Sınır Testi Analizinden Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de Politik Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezini geçerliliğini 1987-2017 dönemi için gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif (ARDL) modeli ile araştırmaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlara göre hem kısa hem de uzun dönem için: i) Kişi başı reel gelir, gelir eşitsizliği üzerinde azaltıcı etkiye sahiptir. ii) Demokrasi ve gelir eşitsizliği arasında U-biçimli bir ilişki varlığı, Politik Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezini geçerli olmadığını göstermektedir: Düşük seviyedeki demokrasideki iyileşmeler de gelir eşitsizliği üzerinde azaltıcı etkiye ve yüksek seviyedeki demokrasideki iyileşmeler ise olumsuz etkiye sahiptir. iii) Tüketici fiyatları endeksindeki artışlar ise gelir eşitsizliği üzerinde güçlü bir olumsuz etkiye sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Gelir eşitsizliği
• demokrasi
• enflasyon
• Türkiye
• ARDL sınır testi

Testing of the Political Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Turkey: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Analysis

Öz

This study explores the validity of the Political Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Turkey for the period 1987-2017 by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach to cointegration. According to empirical results for both short-run and long-run: i) Per capita income has a reducing effect on income inequality. ii) There is a U-shaped relationship between democracy and income inequality that is implied that the Political Kuznets Curve hypothesis is not valid: An improving at the low level of democracy has also reducing effect and the high level of democracy has an increasing effect on income inequality. iii) Finally, a rising the consumer price index has a strong negative effect on income inequality.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Income inequality
• democracy
• inflation
• Turkey
• ARDL bounds testing

Kaynakça

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