PARASAL HEDEFLEME STRATEJİLERİ VE TÜRKİYE’DE FİYAT İSTİKRARI

Öz

Türkiye’de yıllardır süregelen yüksek ve istikrarsız enflasyonun olumsuz etkileri önlenememiştir. Bu yüzden politik ve ekonomik dalgalanmalar bir güvenilirlik sorunu gündeme getirmiştir.. Bunun en son örnekleri ise 2000 yılı Kasım ve 2001 yılı Şubat krizleridir. Bundan dolayı piyasalarda süren güvensizlik problemini ortadan kaldırmak ve insanlardaki önyargıları kırmak kolay olmamaktadır. Sonuç olarak, para politikası uygulamalarının istikrarlı bir makroekonomik performans için fiyat istikrarını sağlaması gereklidir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı da dünyadaki uygulamalar ve Türkiye şartları göz önüne alınarak başarılı bir para politikası uygulaması için öneriler ortaya koymaktır

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Fiyat İstikrarı, Parasal Hedefleme, Döviz Kuru Hedeflemesi

MONETARY TARGETING STRATEGIES AND PRICE STABILITY IN TURKEY

Öz

In Turkey, the adverse effects of long lasting unstable inflation could not have been eliminated. Therefore, political and economic fluctiations have proposed the credibility issue for the agenda. Recent examples of this issue are October 2000 and February 2001 crises. Therefore, it is not easy to remove this credibility questions in markets and to deal with market participants prejudices. As a result, monetary policy applicating to obtain price stability is essential for a stable macroeconomic performance. The aim of this thesis is to point out some proposals for a proper monetary policy application by analysing practices accross the countries and considering Turkey’s conditions

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Price Stability, Monetary Targeting, Exchange Rate Targeting, Inflation

Kaynakça

1. Agenor, P. R. (2000) “Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Introduction To Inflation Targeting” The World Bank, Washington, Dc 20433.
2. Devine, M., Mccoy, D. (1998) “The Formulation of Monetary Policy In Emu” Central Bank Of Ireland.
3. Estrella, A., Mishkin, F. (1996) “Is There A Role For Monetary Aggregates In The Conduct Of Monetary Policy” Nber Working Paper No: 5845.
4. European Central Bank (Ecb), (2004), “The Monetary Policy Of The Ecb” Http://Www.Ecb.İnt (06.09.2005).
5. Gottschalk, J., Moore, D. (2001) “Implementing Inflation Targeting Regimes:The Case of Poland” Journal Of Comparative Economics 29. (2001.
6. Güloğlu, B. (2005), “Vektör Otoregresif Modellerin Etki Tepki Fonksiyonlarının Güven Aralıklarının Güvenilirliği” Pamukkale Üniversitesi.
7. Günçavdı, Ö., Levent, H., Ülengin, B. (2000) “Yüksek ve Değişken Enflasyonun Tahmininde Alternatif Modellerin Karşılaştırılması: Türkiye Örneği” Odtü Gelişme Dergisi, 27(1-2) 2000.
8. Hall, E., R., Maankiw, N., G. (1993) “ Nominal Income Targeting.” NBER Working Paper No: 4439.

9. Japan Bank, (2000), “On Price Stability” (01.03.2002). Http://Www.Boj.Or.Jp/En/Seisaku/00/Pb/Data/K001013a.Pdf
10. Jensen, H. (1999) “Targeting Nominal Income Growth Or Inflation?” University Of Copenhagen Cepr And Epru.
11. Johansen, S. (1998), “Statistical Analysis Of Cointegration Vectors” J. Econ. Dynam. Control 12, 2/3.
12. Johansen, S., Juselius, K. (1990) “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inferences On Cointegration-With Applications To The Demand For Money,” Oxford Bulletin Of Economics And Statistics, 52
13. Kibritçioğlu, A. (2001) “Causes Of Inflation In Turkey: A Literature Survey With Special Reference To Theories of Inflation” University Of Illinosis At Urbana-Champaign, Office of Research Working Paper No. 01-0115.
14. Kumhof, M. (2001) “A Critical View Of Inflation Targeing: Crises, Limited Sustainability, And Aggregate Shocks” Central Bank Of Chile, Working Papers, No: 127.
15. Malik, H., A. (2003) “Price Level Vs. Nominal Income Targeting and The Cost Channel Of Monetary Policy Transmission” Lakehead University.
16. Mishkin, F. (1997) “Strategies For Controlling Inflation” Nber Working Paper No: 6122.
17. Mishkin, F. (1999) “International Experiences With Different Monetary Policy Regimes.” Nber Working Paper No: 6965.
18. Svensson, E., O. (1997) “Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions” Nber Working Paper No: 5962.
19. Tutar, E. (2002) “Inflation Targeting In Developing Countries And Its Applicability to The Turkish Economy” The Faculty of The Virginia Polytechnic Institute And State University. Türkiye Cumhuriyeti www.tcmb.gov.tr. Bankası (TCMB) Web Sitesi,
20. Unibe, M. (2002) “Real Exchange Rate Targeting And Macroeconomic Instability” Nber Working Paper No: 9294.
21. Woglom, G. (2000) “Inflation Targeting İn South Africa: A Var Analysis” J. Stud. Econ. Econometrics, 2000, 24(2).