Global Supply Chains and Transformation in the COVID-19 Era

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 2, 1 - 16, 28.12.2020

Gülsün Nakıboğlu

Öz

The COVID-19 outbreak started in China’s Wuhan region, a strategically important area in terms of global production, at the end of 2019 and quickly spread to the rest of the world and has since been declared a pandemic by the WHO. The coronavirus period, during which many precautions have been taken worldwide, such as social distancing and staying at home as well as the closing of businesses, halting production, and working from home, is considered to be the biggest global economic shock since the World War II. Due to China’s and Wuhan’s key role for many supply chains, the production disruptions in this region have been felt deeply by global supply chains. The impacts of this event on economies and supply chains worldwide have revealed certain faulty structures and prioritisations in globalized supply chains. For instance, offshoring production to low-cost regions as a cost reduction strategy; having lean supply chains that focus on short term costs instead of having lean processes; working with a single supplier/suppliers from the same geographical region are considered to be the reasons behind the inventory shortages that the world has experienced. Therefore, the current situation should be seen as a “black swan”, and how we tackle this crisis should be used as an opportunity to be prepared for any possible future crises. This paper first describes how and why the pandemic has affected supply chains; and then explains from which aspects supply chains should be restructured in order to decrease their vulnerability in the future.

Anahtar Kelimeler

COVID-19, pandemic, global trade, globalization, Wuhan

COVID-19 Küresel Tedarik Zincirlerinde Yaşananlar ve Dönüşüm

Öz

COVID-19, küresel üretim açısından önemli olan Çin’in Wuhan bölgesinde ortaya çıkmış, dünyanın birçok bölgesine hızla yayılmış, Dünya Sağlık Örgütü tarafından küresel salgın ilan edilmiştir. Dünya çapında sosyal mesafe ve eve kapanma önlemlerinin alındığı, işletmelerin kapandığı, üretimlerin durduğu ve insanların evden çalıştığı koronavirüs dönemi, 2. Dünya Savaşı’ndan beri en büyük küresel ekonomik şok olarak görülmektedir. Çin’in hammadde tedarikçisi, üretici ve pazar olarak dünya ticareti üzerindeki etkisi, çok büyükken, Wuhan bölgesinin dünya çapındaki birçok büyük işletme ve küresel tedarik zinciri için tedarikçi işletmeler bazında anahtar rolü, buradaki işletmelerde yaşanan üretim kesintisinin tüm dünyada tedarik zinciri kesintisi olarak hissedilmesine sebep olmuştur. Bu sürecin tüm dünyada ekonomiyi ve tedarik zincirlerini etkilemesi, aslında küreselleşen tedarik zincirlerinin bazı yanlış yapılanmalarını ve önceliklendirmelerini de ortaya çıkarmıştır. Örneğin yaşanan stok açıklarının sebepleri olarak, maliyet düşürme stratejisi olarak uygulanan üretimin düşük maliyetli bölgelere kaydırılması, süreçlerin yalınlığına değil kısa dönemlik maliyetlere odaklanan yalınlaştırılmış tedarik zincirleri, zincir boyunca düşük düzeyde stok bulundurmak, tek veya aynı coğrafik bölgeden tedarikçilerle çalışmak, veri görünürlüğü için çalışmamak gösterilmektedir. Dolayısıyla mevcut durum “siyah kuğu” olarak değerlendirilip, bu krizden çıkışın, gelecekte olası kriz durumlarına da hazır olma fırsatı olarak ele alınmak zorundadır. Bu çalışmada öncelikle salgının tedarik zincirlerini nasıl ve neden etkilediği anlatılmış ardından da tedarik zincirlerinin gelecekte kırılganlıklarının azaltılması için hangi açılardan yeniden yapılandırılması gerektiği açıklanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

COVID-19, pandemi, küresel ticaret, küreselleşme, Wuhan

Kaynakça

• Alicke, K., Azcue, X. & Barriball, E. (2020). Supply-chain recovery in coronavirus times-plan for now and the future. Retrieved from McKinsey & Company, March 2020. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/supply-chain-recovery-in-coronavirus-times-plan-for-now-and-the-future. Erişim Tarihi: 22.05.2020.
• Araz, O.M., Choi, T.M., Olson, D.L. & Salman, F.S. (2020). Data Analytics for Operational Risk Management. Decision Sciences. Online at 05 May 2020. https://doi.org/10.1111/deci.12443.
• Aryapadi, M., Chandra, W., Dekhne, A., Haddioui, K., Lange, T. & Venkataraman, K. (2020). Five actions retail supply chains can take to navigate the coronavirus pandemic. Retrieved from McKinsey & Company, April 2020. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/five-actions-retail-supply-chains-can-take-to-navigate-the-coronavirus-pandemic Erişim Tarihi: 20.05.2020.
• Baldvin, R. & Tomiura, E. (2020). Thinking ahead about the trade impact of COVID-19. In R. Baldwin, R. & B.W. di Mauro (Eds) Economics in the Time of COVID-19. 59-73. CEPR Press, UK, 2020. ISBN: 978-1-912179-28-2.
• Baldvin, R. & di Mauro, B.W. (2020). Introduction. In R. Baldwin, R. & B.W. di Mauro (Eds) Economics in the Time of COVID-19. 59-73. CEPR Press, UK, 2020. ISBN: 978-1-912179-28-2.
• Barriball, E., George, K., Marcos, I. & Radtke, P. (2020). Jump-starting resilient and reimagined operations. Retrieved from McKinsey & Company. May 2020. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/jump-starting-resilient-and-reimagined-operations Erişim Tarihi: 12.06.2020.
• Cappelli, A. & Cini, E. (2020). Will the COVID-19 pandemic make us reconsider the relevance of short food supply chains and local productions? Trends in Food Science & Technology, 99, 566-567, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tifs.2020.03.041.
• Chenneveau, D., Eloot, K., Kuentz, J.F. & Lehnich, M. (2020a). Coronavirus and technology supply chains: How to restart and rebuild. Retrieved from McKinsey & Company, March 2020. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/coronavirus-and-technology-supply-chains-how-to-restart-and-rebuild Erişim Tairih: 08.05.2020.
• Chenneveau, D., Mancini, M. & Shinghal, S. (2020b). A resilient return for Asia’s manufacturing and supply chains? Retrieved from McKinsey & Company, May 2020. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/a-resilient-return-for-asias-manufacturing-and-supply-chains Erişim Tarihi: 01.07.2020.
• Choi, T.Y., Rogers, D. & Vakil, B. (2020). Coronavirus Is a Wake-Up Call for Supply Chain Management. Harvard Business Review, March 27, 2020.
• De Meyer, A. 2020. It won’t be business as usual after COVID-19. Published in The Straits Times, 2020, April 24, p. A18. Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School of Business. https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/6558/ Erişim Tarihi: 03.05.2020.
• Deloitte (Haziran, 2020a). COVID-19 Sonrası Yeni’den Tedarik Zinciri. Retrieved from https://www2.deloitte.com/tr/tr/pages/consulting/articles/COVID-19-sonrasi-yeniden-tedarik-zinciri.html. Erişim Tarihi: 12.06.2020.
• Deloitte (Haziran, 2020b). Yüksek Belirsizlik Dönemlerinde Analitik Modellerin Yönetimi – COVID-19’dan Öteye Bakmak. Retrieved from https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/tr/Documents/consulting/yuksek-belirsizlik-donemlerinde-analitik-modellerin-yonetimi.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 20.07.2020.
• Deloitte (Mayıs, 2020c) COVID-19 Sonrası Tedarik Zincirlerinde Kazananlar ve Kaybedenler. Retrieved from https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/tr/Documents/consumer-business/Covid19sonrasitedarikzinciri.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 10.06.2020.
• Deloitte (Mayıs, 2020d). Küresel COVID-19 Salgınının Türkiye’de Farklı Kategorilere Etkileri. Retrieved from https://www2.deloitte.com/tr/tr/pages/consulting/articles/kuresel-covid-19-salgininin-turkiyede-farkli-kategorilere-etkileri.html Erişim Tarihi: 10.06.2020.
• Ellram, L. Flynn, B., Harland, C., Kovács, G., Sarkis, J. & Tate, W. (2020). Action Agenda for Effective Post COVID-19 Supply Chain, online Forum on Zoom with report, April 16, 2020.
• Ey-Parthenon (2020). COVID-19 Etki Anlizi, Küresel Bulgular ve Alınabilecek Aksiyonlar, Nisan 2020.
• Forsen, J. & Sjoberg, S. (2020). How to Mitigate Supply Chain Disruption Caused by Coronavirus. Retrieved from Capacent, 28 Feb 2020. https://capacent.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Capacent-on-Supply-Chain-Disruptions-due-to-Coronavirus.pdf Erişim Tarihi 01.05.2020.
• Harbour, L. (2020). The Coronavirus’ Impact On the Global Automotive Supply Chain. Retrieved from Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurieharbour1/2020/03/13/the-coronavirus-impact-on-the-global-automotive-supply-chain/#6384c9e5444e Erişim Tarihi: 06.06.2020.
• Haren, P. & Simchi-Levi, D., 2020. How Coronavirus Could Impact the Global Supply Chain by Mid-March. Harvard Business Review, February 28, 2020.
• Hopman, J., Allegranzi, B. & Mehtar, S. (2020). Managing COVID-19 in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. JAMA, 323(16). DOI 10.1001/jama.2020.4169.
• Ivanov, D. (2020). Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case. Transportation Research Part E, 136, 101922 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2020.101922.
• Kilpatrick, J. & Barter, L. (2020). COVID-19 Managing supply chain risk and disruption. Retrieved from Deloitte. https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/risk/articles/covid-19-managing-supply-chain-risk-and-disruption.html Erişim Tarihi 01.05.2020.
• KPGM (2020). COVID-19’un Tedarik Zinciri Üzerindeki Etkilerini Yönetmek İçin Olası Stratejik Hamleler. Retrieved from KPGM: https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/tr/pdf/2020/03/covid-19-tedarik-zinciri.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 23.04.2020.
• Mace, M. (2020). Coronavirus and globalisation: What next for supply chain sustainability? Retrieved from Edie, 21 April 2020. https://www.edie.net/library/Coronavirus-and-globalisation--What-next-for-supply-chain-sustainability-/6973 Erişim Tarihi 01.05.2020.
• OCHA - United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (2020). Global Humanitarian Response Plan COVID-19. Retrieved from United Nations Coordinated Appeal, April – December 2020. Last updated: 28 March 2020.
• Petropoulos, P. & Makridakis, S. (2020). Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19. PLOS ONE, March 31, 2020. DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0231236.
• Queiroz, M.M., Ivanov, D., Dolgui, A. & Wamba, S.F. (2020). Impacts of epidemic outbreaks on supply chains: mapping a research agenda amid the COVID-19 pandemic through a structured literature review. Annals of Operations Research, Published online at 16 June 2020, DOI 10.1007/s10479-020-03685-7.
• Rice, J.B. (2020). Prepare Your Supply Chain for Coronavirus. Harvard Business Review, February 27, 2020.
• Seifert, R.W. & Markoff, R. (2020). Digesting the shocks: how supply chains are adapting to the COVID-19 lockdowns - Coping in a unique moment. Retrieved from IMD Research & Knowledge, March. https://www.imd.org/research-knowledge/articles/supply-chains-adapting-to-covid-19/ Erişim Tarihi 10.05.2020.
• Simchi-Levi, D. & Simchi-Levi, E., 2020. We Need a Stress Test for Critical Supply Chains. Harvard Business Review, April 28, 2020.
• Unglesbee, B., Howland, D. & Vembar, K. (2020). The impact of the coronavirus on retail. Retrieved from RetailDive, March 5, 2020. https://www.retaildive.com/news/the-impact-of-the-coronavirus-on-retail/573522/ Erişim Tarihi 02.05.2020.