Markov Analizi İle Otel Tercihlerinin Ve Tercih Nedenlerinin Belirlenmesi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 18 Sayı: 2, 48 - 63, 30.12.2021

Havva Kocabaşa , Fatma Feyza Gündüz

Öz

Turizm sektöründeki rekabetin her geçen gün artmasıyla birlikte turizm bölgelerinde yer alan otellerin önemi de artmıştır. Otellerin tercih edilme oranlarını ve tercih edilme nedenlerini bilmeleri rakiplerine karşı büyük bir avantaj sağlayacaktır. Bu amaçla Mersin ilinde yer alan 4 ve 5 yıldızlı, plajı bulunan otellerin tercih edilme olasılıklarına ve tercih nedenlerine yönelik bir çalışma yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın verileri 410 kişiye uygulanan anketlerden elde edilmiştir. Tercih edilme olasılıklarının analizi için Markov zinciri yönteminin temelini oluşturan geçiş olasılıkları matrisi oluşturulmuş ve uzun dönem denge vektörleri hesaplanmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda uzun dönemde en çok tercih edilecek üç otelin sırasıyla Ulu Resort Hotel (5*), Liparis Resort Hotel& Spa (5*) ve Wonasis Resort& Aqua Hotel (5*) olduğu belirlenmiştir. Çalışmaya dâhil edilen otellerin tercih edilme nedenlerinin belirlenmesi için Saklı Markov modeli kullanılmıştır. Konum, oda ve tesis temizliği, çocuklu ailelere yönelik imkânların bulunması ve çevredeki kişilerin tavsiyeleri veya reklamların etkili olması otel tercihlerini etkileyen en önemli faktörler olarak belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Markov Zincirleri, Saklı Markov modeli, Geçiş Olasılıkları, Otel Tercihleri

Determining Hotel Preferences and the Reasons for These Preferences Using Markov Analysis

Öz

The importance of hotels in tourism regions has developed with the increasing competition in the tourism sector. Knowing the preference rates and the factors that affect the preferences will provide a considerable advantage over their competitors for hotels. For this purpose, a study has been conducted on the preference probabilities and the factors affecting preferences of 4 and 5-star hotels with beaches in Mersin province. The data of the study were obtained from questionnaires applied to 410 people. For the analysis of the preference probabilities, the transition probability matrix, which forms the basis of the Markov chain method, was created and the long-term equilibrium vectors were calculated. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the three most preferred hotels in the long term are Ulu Resort Hotel (5*), Liparis Resort Hotel & Spa (5*), and Wonasis Resort & Aqua Hotel (5*). The Hidden Markov model was used to determine the factors affecting the preferences of the hotels included in the study. Location, room and facility cleaning, availability of facilities for families with children, and the effectiveness of recommendations or advertisement have been identified as the most important factors affecting hotel preferences.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Markov Chains, Hidden Markov Model, Transition Probabilities, Hotel Preferences

Kaynakça

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