The Effect of Terrorist Attacks on The Average Spending of Incoming Tourists

Öz

Global tourism service production has a fragile structure and is expressed as one of the vulnerable sectors due to possible cyclical developments in this aspect. There are studies in the literature that examine how and in what periods the total tourism demand of terrorism, the short-term and long-term effects and ineffectiveness of shocks, the religious, ethnic and geographical spread of the effects of shocks, and the effects of continuous shocks. This study aimed to focus on the flexibility of the average spending tendencies of tourists to terrorist attacks and real exchange rate changes. For this purpose, using the annual data for the period 1980-2019, the effect of terrorist attacks and the real exchange rate on the average expenditures of tourists coming to Turkey was investigated with the help of the Maki (2012) multiple structural break cointegration test. Increases in terrorist attacks have a weak and negative effect on average spending, while shocks in real exchange rates have a negative and strong effect. It should be stated that the qualitative change of tourists, which may come due to the change in purchasing power for the periods when the real exchange rate increases, may increase the sensitivity to terrorism.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Cointegration With Breaks

Terör Saldırılarının Gelen Turistlerin Ortalama Harcamalarına Etkisi

Öz

Global turizm hizmeti üretimi, kırılgan bir yapıya sahiptir ve bu yönüyle olası konjokturel gelişmelere bağlı savunmasız sektörden biri olarak ifade edilmektedir. Terörizmin, toplam turizm talebini nasıl ve hangi periodlarda etkilediğini araştıran çalışmalar, şokların kısa dönem ve uzun dönemdeki etkisi ile uzun dönemdeki etkisizliğini araştıranlar, şokların etkilerinin dini, etnik ve coğrafi yayılımını inceleyenler ve süreklilik arz eden şokların etkilerini inceleyenler olarak literatürde çok sayıda çalışma mevcuttur. Bu çalışma turizm talebinin ötesinde gelen turistlerin ortalama harcama eğilimlerinin terör saldırılarına ve reel döviz kuru değişimlerine esnekliği üzerinde durmayı amaçlamıştır. Terör saldırılarında meydana gelen artışlar ortalama harcama üzerinde negatif ve zayıf etkiye sahipken, reel döviz kurunda meydana gelen şoklar negatif ve güçlü etkiye sahiptir. Bu noktadan hareketle Türkiye’de terör eylemlerinin turizm sektörü üzerindeki etkisi eylemlerin yıllardır süregelmesi ve itibarsız olması ile turizm bölgelerinden uzakta gerçekleşmesi sebebiyle etkisizdir sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. Reel döviz kurunun arttığı dönemler için satın alma gücünün değişimine bağlı olarak gelebilecek olan turistlerin niteliksel kaymasının turistlerin teröre olan hassasiyetini arttırabileceği ifade edilmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• terör saldırıları
• reel döviz kuru
• turizm harcamaları
• kırılmalı eşbütünleşme

Kaynakça

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