The Relationship between Savings and Inflation: An Analysis of Co-Integration for Turkey

Öz

Empirical studies on the effect of savings and inflation on the country's economies, the direction and causality of this effect are increasing day by day. In this study, the relationship between savings and inflation is discussed in the case of Turkey. The stability of the two series studied was investigated by analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that both series are stationary in their first differences. In the later analysis, short and long term relationships were discussed. According to the results obtained, there is a statistically significant relationship between savings and inflation both in the short run and the long run. While the increase in inflation increases the savings in the short term, an increase in inflation decreases the savings in the long term. To determine the causality relationship between the series, the Granger causality test was applied with Toda Yamamoto approach. As a result, it has been determined that there is a one-way causality relationship with 10% significance level from saving to inflation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Inflation

Tasarruf ve Enflasyon İlişkisi Türkiye İçin Bir Eş-Bütünleşme Analizi

Öz

Tasarruf ve enflasyonun ülke ekonomilerine etkisi, bu etkinin yönü ve nedenselliğine dair yapılan ampirik çalışmalar her geçen gün artmaktadır. Bu çalışmada tasarruf ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişki Türkiye Örneği üzerinde ele alınmıştır. Ele alınan iki seri için durağanlıkları analizler ile incelenmiştir. Yapılan analizler sonucunda serilerin her ikisinin de birinci farklarında durağan oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonra yapılan analizlerde ise kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler ele alınmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre tasarruf ile enflasyon arasında hem kısa dönemde hem de uzun dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki vardır. Kısa dönemde enflasyondaki artış tasarrufu arttırıyor iken uzun dönemde enflasyonda meydana gelecek bir artış tasarrufu azaltmaktadır. Seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini belirlemek amacıyla Toda Yamamoto yaklaşımı ile Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Sonuçta iki seri arasında %10 anlamlılık düzeyinde tasarruftan enflasyona doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tasarruf
• Enflasyon
• Eş-Bütünleşme

Kaynakça

1. Agarwal, J. D., & Agarwal, A. (2005). Inflation, savings & financial Development1. Finance India, 19(2), 421-448. Retrieved from https://search.proquest.com/docview/224363218?accountid=17219
2. Amaefule, Nwabueze Joseph & Maku, O. Emmanuel (2019). National Domestic Savings, Inflation, Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria: ARDL Approach. EuroEconomica, 2, 314.
3. Ayla, Dilara ve Kızılltan, Alaattin (2018), “Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Tüketim ve Tasarruf İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Analizi”, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Recep Tayyip Erdogan Universtiy Journal of Social Sciences (2018) 7: 13-41
4. Baiardi, D., Magnani, M., & Menegatti, M. (2020). The theory of precautionary saving: an overview of recent developments. Review of Economics of the Household, 18(2), 513. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-019-09460-3
5. Barro, R.J. (1995), Inflation and Economic Growth, NBER Working Paper, Cambridge.
6. Blinov, S. (2015). Savings and Inflation Using the Example of Russia in 1992. Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/67147/ MPRA Paper No. 67147
7. Bodie, Z. (1989). "Accelerating Inflation and the Distribution of Household Savings Incentives," in Stagflation: the Causes, Effects, and Solutions, U.S. Congress, Joint Economic Committee, Special Study of Economic Change, Vol. 4, Dec. 1980, pp. 193-224.
8. Bonu, N. S.. (1995). Taxation, Inflation, Savings and Development: Case Study of Republic of Botswana. African Review of Money Finance and Banking, 1/2, 25.

9. Brems, H. (1979). Alternative theories of pricing, distribution, saving, and investment. The American Economic Review, 69(1), 161-165.
10. Browning, M., & Lusardi, A. (1996). Household saving: Micro theories and micro facts. Journal of Economic literature, 34(4), 1797-1855.
11. Bruno, Michael and Easterly, William (1998). Inflation crises and long-run growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 41 (1), 3-26.
12. Bulkley, George. (1981). Personal Savings and Anticipated Inflation. The Economic Journal, 91(361), 124. https://doi.org/10.2307/2231702
13. Campbell, C. R., Lovati, J. M.,(1979), “Inflation and Personal Saving: An Update,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review: 3-9.
14. Ceylan, Servet (2018), “Enflasyon-Özel Tasarruf İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Anadolu İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 2 (1) 2018, 56-66.
15. Ceylan, Servet (2018). “Enflasyon-Özel Tasarruf İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Anadolu İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 2 (1) 2018, 56-66.
16. Chaturvedi, Vaibhav and Dholakia, Ravindra H. and Kumar, Brajesh, Inter-Relationship between Economic Growth, Savings and Inflation in Asia (August 8, 2008). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1212096 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1212096
17. Cheng, Q., & Li, X. (2014). Cross-‐Country Effects of Inflation on National Savings. Econometric Analysis Undergraduate Research Papers 1-17.
18. Cottarelli, C., Blejer, I., Mario, (1992), “Forced Saving and Repressed Inflation in the Soviet Union, 1986-90: Some Empirical Results”, IMF Staff Papers, V.9, N.2, DOI: 10.2307/3867059
19. Cukrowski, Jacek and Kavelashiwli, George (2002). Inflation and Adjustment of Relative Prices in Georgia. CASE-CEU Working Paper. No: 43.
20. Çağlayan, E. (2006). Enflasyon, Faiz Oranı ve Büyümenin Yurtiçi Tasarruflar Üzerindeki Etkileri.
21. Davidson, R., & MacKinnon, J. G. (1983). Inflation and the savings rate. Applied Economics, 15(6), 731-743.
22. Deaton, A. (1983). Savings and inflation: Theory and British evidence. In The Determinants of National Saving and Wealth (pp. 125-139). Palgrave Macmillan, London.
23. Den Haan, W. J. (1990), “The Optimal Inflation Path in a Sidrauski-type Model with Uncertainty”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 25: 389-409.
24. Er, P. H., Tugcu, C. T., & Coban, O. (2014). Investigating the link between savings, inflation and economic growth: an ARDL analysis for the case of Turkey. PressAcademia. Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting – (JEFA), ISSN: 2148-6697
25. Er, P. H., Tuğcu, C. T., Coban, O. (2014), “Investigating the Link between Savings, Inflation and Economic Growth: An ARDL Analysis for the Case of Turkey”, Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting, 1(2): 81-90.
26. Erkki Koskela, & Matti Virén. (1982). Inflation, Tight Money and Household Saving Behavior: Finnish Evidence. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 84(3), 483. https://doi.org/10.2307/3439430.
27. Erkki Koskela, Matti Virén. (1984) Household saving out of different types of income revisited. Applied Economics 16:3, pages 379-396.
28. Ferreira, M. (2017). Savings and inflation (Doctoral dissertation).
29. Fisher, I. (1930). The Theory of Interest. New York: MacMillan.
30. Friedman, M. (1957). A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
31. Green, F. (1991). Institutional and other unconventional theories of saving. Journal of Economic Issues, 25(1), 93-113.
32. Heer, B. ( 1 ), & Sussmuth, B. ( 2 ). (n.d.). The savings-inflation puzzle. Applied Economics Letters, 16(6), 615–617. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850701206510
33. Igbatayo, S., & Agbada, A. O. (2012). Inflation, savings and output in Nigeria: A VAR approach. Journal of emerging trends in economics and management sciences, 3(5), 447-453.
34. Ilyas, M., Sabir, H.M., Shehzadi, A., & shoukat, N. (2014). Inter-relationship among Economic Growth, Savings and Inflation in Pakistan, Journal of Finance and Economics, 2014, Vol. 2, No. 4, 125-130 Available online at http://pubs.sciepub.com/jfe/2/4/4
35. Juster, F. Thomas & Wachtel, Paul. (1972). A Note on Inflation and the Saving Rate. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1972(3), 765. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534131
36. Karaçor, Zeynep (2001). İstikrar Politikaları ve Uygulamaları (1. Baskı). Konya: Dizgi Ofset Matbaacılık.
37. Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: MacMillan.
38. Koskela, Erkki & Virén, Matti. (1992). Inflation, Capital Markets and Household Saving in the Nordic Countries. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 94(2), 215. https://doi.org/10.2307/3440447
39. Kuehlwein, M. (1993). Life-cycle and altruistic theories of saving with lifetime uncertainty. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 38-47.
40. Leff N. H., Sato K. (1988), “A Simultaneous Equations Model of Savings in Developing Countries”, Journal of Political Economy, 83(6): 1217-1228.
41. Mansoorian, A., Michelis, L., & Mohsin, M. (2010). Savıngs, Investment, Employment, And Inflatıon In A Small Open Economy Wıth Habıt Persıstence. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 14(3), 365-387. doi:10.1017/S1365100509090336
42. Modigliani, F. ve Brumberg, R. H. (1954). Utility Analysis and The Consumption Function: An Interpretation Of Cross-Section Data. K. K. (Editör) içinde, Post-Keynesian Economics, New Jersey: Rutgers University Press.
43. Motley, B. (1998), “Growth and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study”, Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 1, 15-28.
44. Mundell R. (1963), “Inflation and Real Interest”, Journal of Political Economy, 71: 280-83.
45. Pata, U. K. (2018). Türkiye’de enflasyon, tasarruf ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkilerin simetrik ve asimetrik nedensellik testleri ile analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 174, 92-111.
46. Patra, S. K., Murthy, S., & Biswal, A. Savings-Growth-Inflation nexus in Asia: Panel Data Approach. Journal of Economics and Finance. e-ISSN: 2321-5933, p-ISSN: 2321-5925.Volume 6, Issue 4. Ver. II (Jul. - Aug. 2015), PP 75-85
47. Pesaran, M. H. & Evans, R. A.. (1984). Inflation, Capital Gains and U.K. Personal Savings: 1953-1981. The Economic Journal, 94(374), 237. https://doi.org/10.2307/2232346
48. Pigou, A. C. (1943). The Classical Stationary State. Economic Journal, 53(212), 343-351.
49. Premik, F., & Stanisławska, E., (2017). The Impact of Inflation Expectations on Polish Consumers’ Spending and Saving. Eastern European Economics, 55(1), 3–28. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2016.1260474
50. Ramsey, F. P. (1928). A Mathematical Theory of Saving. The Economic Journal, 38(152), 543-559.
51. Richardson Kojo Edeme, Innocent Ifelunini. Savings, Inflation and Economic Growth Linkages: A Re-Examination with Nigeria Data. Journal of Investment and Management. Vol. 4, No. 5, 2015, pp. 180-185. doi: 10.11648/j.jim.20150405.16
52. Thirlwall, A. P. (1974). Inflation and the savings ratio across countries. Journal of Development Studies, 10, 154–174.
53. Thompson, Douglas N. & Ottosen, Garry K. (1993). Long-Term Inflation Expectations, The Personal Saving Rate and Credit Standards. Business Economics, 28(4), 45-50.
54. Tobin, J. (1965), “Money and Economic Growth”, Econometrica, 33, 671-84.
55. Tylecote, Andrew (1981). The Causes of the Present Inflation (1th Edition). London: The Macmillan Press Ltd.
56. Ungern-Sternberg, Von Thomas. (1981). Inflation and Savings: International Evidence on Inflation-Induced Income Losses. The Economic Journal, 91(364), 961. https://doi.org/10.2307/2232502
57. Wachtel, P. (1977),“Inflation, Uncertainty, and Saving Behavior since the Mid1950s”, Explorations Econ., 4: 558- 78.
58. Woodfield, Alan & McDonald, John (1978) On the relation between savings, distribution and inflation, The Journal of Development Studies, 14:3, 357-365. DOI: 10.1080/00220387808421681