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COVID – 19 Pandemisi ve Azerbaycan Ekonomisi: Zor Zamanlarda Politika Dersleri

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 1, 103 - 120, 26.03.2022
https://doi.org/10.18026/cbayarsos.988348

Öz

Petrol fiyatlarındaki ve arzındaki herhangi bir dalgalanma Azerbaycan ekonomisini doğrudan etkilemektedir. Hükümet, enerji gelirlerini kullanarak ekonomisini çeşitlendirmek ve petrol dışı sektörleri geliştirmek için çeşitli devlet programlarının uygulanmasına başlamıştır. COVID-19, petrol fiyatlarının zaten düşük olduğu bir dönemde patlak vermiştir. İkinci Karabağ Savaşı, pandeminin etkilerini daha karmaşık hale getirmiştir. Sağlık, askeri ve ekonomik sorunlarla karşı karşıya kalan Azerbaycan, üç farklı cephede savaşmıştır. Bu çalışma, pandeminin Azerbaycan ekonomisi üzerindeki etkilerini değerlendirmekte; onun yakın gelecekte petrol ve gaz endüstrisini olumsuz etkileyeceğini; uzun vadede ise devleti, Devlet Petrol Fonu’nun gelirlerinden yararlanarak ekonomiyi yeniden yapılandırmaya ve dönüştürmeye, petrol dışı sektörlerin payını artırmaya ve yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarına daha fazla alan açmaya zorlayacağını öne sürmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Alekhina, V. & Yoshino, N. 2018. Impact of World Oil Prices on an Energy Exporting Economy Including Monetary Policy. ADBI Working Paper 828. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute. https://www.adb.org/publications/impact-world-oil-prices-energyexporting-economy-including-monetary-policy (accessed 05 July 2021).
  • Asian Development Bank. 2020. https://www.adb.org/countries/azerbaijan/economy (accessed 17 December 2020).
  • Asian Development Bank. 2021. ABD COVID-19 Policy Database. Azerbaijan (Data updated as of 08 Feb 2021). https://covid19policy.adb.org/index.php/policy-measures/AZE (accessed 14 February 2021).
  • Bagirova, N. & Antidze, M. 2015. Azerbaijan's Economic Growth Slows to 3 pct In 2014 Due to Weaker Oil Price. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/azerbaijan-economy-idUSL6N0UR2SS20150112 (accessed 02 January 2021).
  • Belyi, A. 2012. Energy Security in International Relations (IR) Theories. Lecture Notes. Cathedra on Political Issues of International Energy, Higher School of Economics, Russia. https://www.hse.ru/data/339/636/1233/ReaderforLecturesOnEnergySecurity.doc (accessed 08 July 2021).
  • BP. 2020. Statistical Review of World Energy. 69th Edition. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf (accessed 12 February 2021).
  • CAREC Institute. 2020. CAREC Institute Quarterly Economic Monitor. https://www.carecinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/CI-Quarterly-Economic-Monitor-28-Dec-2020_KK.pdf (accessed 11 February 2021).
  • EBRD. 2020a. Azerbaijan Overview. https://www.ebrd.com/where-we-are/azerbaijan/overview.html (accessed 20 December 2020).
  • EBRD. 2020b. Transition Report 2020-2021. https://2020.tr-ebrd.com/countries/# (accessed 20 December 2020).
  • IATA. 2020. Annual Review 2020. https://www.iata.org/contentassets/c81222d96c9a4e0bb4ff6ced0126f0bb/iata-annual-review-2020.pdf (accessed 21 December 2020).
  • IMF. 2020a. “A Year Like No Other”. IMF Annual Report 2020. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ar/2020/eng/downloads/imf-annual-report-2020.pdf (accessed 21 December 2020).
  • IMF. 2020b. World Economic Outlook Update. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020 (accessed 20 December 2020).
  • IMF. 2020c. Datamapper. https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/AZE?year=2020 (accessed 20 December 2020).
  • Hough, P. 2008. Understanding Global Security. New York: Routledge.
  • Hurriyet. 2015. Azerbaycan’da Devaluasyon Oldu. https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/ekonomi/azerbaycanda-devaluasyon-oldu-40029688 (accessed 04 January 2021).
  • Huseyn, R. 2011. Azerbaycan’da Petrole Dayalı Ekonomiden Çok Sektörlü Ekonomiye Geçişin Gerekliliği ve Tarım. Bilig 59: 147-166.
  • Kitous, A., Saveyn, B., Keramidas, K., Vandyck, T., Rey Los Santos, L. & Wojtowicz, K.. 2016. Impact of Low Oil Prices on Oil Exporting Countries; EUR 27909 EN; doi:10.2791/718384.
  • Konarzewska, N. 2020. Azerbaijan’s Economy Takes A Double Blow. The Central Asia – Caucasus Analyst. https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13626-azerbaijans-economy-takes-a-double-blow.html (accessed 17 December 2020).
  • Mammadov, A. 2020. Country To Boost Defence Expenditures In 2021. Azernews. https://www.azernews.az/nation/168635.html (accessed 02 January 2021).
  • Masimov, A. 2018. Establishment and Operation of BP-Azerbaijan Company. Baku: Elm ve Tehsil.
  • Oduyemi, G. & Owoeye, T. 2020. Oil Price Fluctuation and Health Outcomes in an Oil Exporting Country: Evidence from Nigeria. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Volume 10-4, 212-220.
  • Smiech, S., Papież, M., Rubaszek, M. & Snarska, M. 2021. The Role of Oil Price Uncertainty Shocks on Oil-exporting Countries. Energy Economics, Volume 93, 105028.
  • SOCAR Azerbaijan. 2021. Economics and Statistics. http://www.socar.az/socar/en/economics-and-statistics/economics-and-statistics/oil-production (accessed 12 February 2021).
  • Stocker M., Baffes, J. & Vorisek, D. 2018. What Triggered The Oil Price Plunge of 2014-2016 And Why It Failed To Deliver An Economic Impetus In Eight Charts? World Bank Blogs. https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/what-triggered-oil-price-plunge-2014-2016-and-why-it-failed-deliver-economic-impetus-eight-charts (accessed 16 December 2020).
  • Taghizadeh Hesary, F., Rasoulinezhad, E. & Kobayashi, Y. Oil Price Fluctuations and Oil Consuming Sectors: An Empirical Analysis of Japan (July 2015). ADBI Working Paper 539; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2670444.
  • The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. 2021. Gross Domestic Product By Sectors of Economy. https://www.stat.gov.az/source/agriculture/?lang=en (accessed 14 February 2021).
  • The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. 2021a. The Foreign Trade of Azerbaijan. https://www.stat.gov.az/source/trade/?lang=en (accessed 02 January 2021).
  • The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. 2021b. System of National Accounts and Balance of Payments. https://www.stat.gov.az/source/system_nat_accounts/?lang=en (accessed 02 January 2021).
  • The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The Main Macroeconomic Indicators. 2021c. https://www.stat.gov.az/source/system_nat_accounts/?lang=en (accessed 12 February 2021).
  • The World Bank. 2020a. Military Expenditure-Azerbaijan. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=AZ (accessed 27 December 2020).
  • The World Bank. 2020b. Azerbaijan. Public Documents. http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/293551524671526045/mpo-aze.pdf (accessed 02 December 2020).
  • Uste, A.N. 2020a. Dunya Saglik Orgutu’nun 6. Evre Pandemik Uyarisi ve Uluslararasi Sistemin Evrilme Olasiligi. Manisa Celal Bayar University Journal of Social Sciences 18 (2): 370-379.
  • Uste, A.N. 2020b. 20.Yuzyilda Azinliklar ve Devlet: Yunanistan’daki Bati Trakya Turk Azinligi Ornegi. Turk Dunyasi Arastirmalari 125 (247): 347-362.
  • Uste, A.N. & Aydin, U. 2020. COVID-19 Pandemisi ve Guney Kafkasya’da Sivil Toplum. Turk Dunyasi Arastirmalari 126 (248): 11-24.
  • Zulfigarov, F. & Neuenkirch, M. 2020. The Impact of Oil Prices On Selected Macroeconomic Indicators of Azerbaijan. Economic Systems 44 (4): 100814.

COVID-19 Pandemic and Azerbaijan’s Economy: Policy Lessons In Hard Times

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 1, 103 - 120, 26.03.2022
https://doi.org/10.18026/cbayarsos.988348

Öz

Any fluctuation in oil prices and supply has a direct effect on Azerbaijan’s economy. The government has started the implementation of several state programs to diversify its economy and to develop the non-oil sectors, using energy revenues. COVID-19 has broken out in such a period that the oil prices were already low. The Second Karabakh War has complicated impacts of the pandemic. Facing health, military and economic problems, Azerbaijan has fought on three different fronts. This study evaluates the effects of the pandemic on Azerbaijan’s economy, suggesting that it will affect the oil and gas industry negatively in near future. It is argued that in a long term, the state will be pushed to restructure and transform the economy, to increase the share of the non-oil sectors and to open more space for renewable energy sources, taking advantage of the incomes of The State Oil Fund.

Kaynakça

  • Alekhina, V. & Yoshino, N. 2018. Impact of World Oil Prices on an Energy Exporting Economy Including Monetary Policy. ADBI Working Paper 828. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute. https://www.adb.org/publications/impact-world-oil-prices-energyexporting-economy-including-monetary-policy (accessed 05 July 2021).
  • Asian Development Bank. 2020. https://www.adb.org/countries/azerbaijan/economy (accessed 17 December 2020).
  • Asian Development Bank. 2021. ABD COVID-19 Policy Database. Azerbaijan (Data updated as of 08 Feb 2021). https://covid19policy.adb.org/index.php/policy-measures/AZE (accessed 14 February 2021).
  • Bagirova, N. & Antidze, M. 2015. Azerbaijan's Economic Growth Slows to 3 pct In 2014 Due to Weaker Oil Price. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/azerbaijan-economy-idUSL6N0UR2SS20150112 (accessed 02 January 2021).
  • Belyi, A. 2012. Energy Security in International Relations (IR) Theories. Lecture Notes. Cathedra on Political Issues of International Energy, Higher School of Economics, Russia. https://www.hse.ru/data/339/636/1233/ReaderforLecturesOnEnergySecurity.doc (accessed 08 July 2021).
  • BP. 2020. Statistical Review of World Energy. 69th Edition. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf (accessed 12 February 2021).
  • CAREC Institute. 2020. CAREC Institute Quarterly Economic Monitor. https://www.carecinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/CI-Quarterly-Economic-Monitor-28-Dec-2020_KK.pdf (accessed 11 February 2021).
  • EBRD. 2020a. Azerbaijan Overview. https://www.ebrd.com/where-we-are/azerbaijan/overview.html (accessed 20 December 2020).
  • EBRD. 2020b. Transition Report 2020-2021. https://2020.tr-ebrd.com/countries/# (accessed 20 December 2020).
  • IATA. 2020. Annual Review 2020. https://www.iata.org/contentassets/c81222d96c9a4e0bb4ff6ced0126f0bb/iata-annual-review-2020.pdf (accessed 21 December 2020).
  • IMF. 2020a. “A Year Like No Other”. IMF Annual Report 2020. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ar/2020/eng/downloads/imf-annual-report-2020.pdf (accessed 21 December 2020).
  • IMF. 2020b. World Economic Outlook Update. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020 (accessed 20 December 2020).
  • IMF. 2020c. Datamapper. https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/AZE?year=2020 (accessed 20 December 2020).
  • Hough, P. 2008. Understanding Global Security. New York: Routledge.
  • Hurriyet. 2015. Azerbaycan’da Devaluasyon Oldu. https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/ekonomi/azerbaycanda-devaluasyon-oldu-40029688 (accessed 04 January 2021).
  • Huseyn, R. 2011. Azerbaycan’da Petrole Dayalı Ekonomiden Çok Sektörlü Ekonomiye Geçişin Gerekliliği ve Tarım. Bilig 59: 147-166.
  • Kitous, A., Saveyn, B., Keramidas, K., Vandyck, T., Rey Los Santos, L. & Wojtowicz, K.. 2016. Impact of Low Oil Prices on Oil Exporting Countries; EUR 27909 EN; doi:10.2791/718384.
  • Konarzewska, N. 2020. Azerbaijan’s Economy Takes A Double Blow. The Central Asia – Caucasus Analyst. https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13626-azerbaijans-economy-takes-a-double-blow.html (accessed 17 December 2020).
  • Mammadov, A. 2020. Country To Boost Defence Expenditures In 2021. Azernews. https://www.azernews.az/nation/168635.html (accessed 02 January 2021).
  • Masimov, A. 2018. Establishment and Operation of BP-Azerbaijan Company. Baku: Elm ve Tehsil.
  • Oduyemi, G. & Owoeye, T. 2020. Oil Price Fluctuation and Health Outcomes in an Oil Exporting Country: Evidence from Nigeria. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Volume 10-4, 212-220.
  • Smiech, S., Papież, M., Rubaszek, M. & Snarska, M. 2021. The Role of Oil Price Uncertainty Shocks on Oil-exporting Countries. Energy Economics, Volume 93, 105028.
  • SOCAR Azerbaijan. 2021. Economics and Statistics. http://www.socar.az/socar/en/economics-and-statistics/economics-and-statistics/oil-production (accessed 12 February 2021).
  • Stocker M., Baffes, J. & Vorisek, D. 2018. What Triggered The Oil Price Plunge of 2014-2016 And Why It Failed To Deliver An Economic Impetus In Eight Charts? World Bank Blogs. https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/what-triggered-oil-price-plunge-2014-2016-and-why-it-failed-deliver-economic-impetus-eight-charts (accessed 16 December 2020).
  • Taghizadeh Hesary, F., Rasoulinezhad, E. & Kobayashi, Y. Oil Price Fluctuations and Oil Consuming Sectors: An Empirical Analysis of Japan (July 2015). ADBI Working Paper 539; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2670444.
  • The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. 2021. Gross Domestic Product By Sectors of Economy. https://www.stat.gov.az/source/agriculture/?lang=en (accessed 14 February 2021).
  • The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. 2021a. The Foreign Trade of Azerbaijan. https://www.stat.gov.az/source/trade/?lang=en (accessed 02 January 2021).
  • The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. 2021b. System of National Accounts and Balance of Payments. https://www.stat.gov.az/source/system_nat_accounts/?lang=en (accessed 02 January 2021).
  • The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The Main Macroeconomic Indicators. 2021c. https://www.stat.gov.az/source/system_nat_accounts/?lang=en (accessed 12 February 2021).
  • The World Bank. 2020a. Military Expenditure-Azerbaijan. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=AZ (accessed 27 December 2020).
  • The World Bank. 2020b. Azerbaijan. Public Documents. http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/293551524671526045/mpo-aze.pdf (accessed 02 December 2020).
  • Uste, A.N. 2020a. Dunya Saglik Orgutu’nun 6. Evre Pandemik Uyarisi ve Uluslararasi Sistemin Evrilme Olasiligi. Manisa Celal Bayar University Journal of Social Sciences 18 (2): 370-379.
  • Uste, A.N. 2020b. 20.Yuzyilda Azinliklar ve Devlet: Yunanistan’daki Bati Trakya Turk Azinligi Ornegi. Turk Dunyasi Arastirmalari 125 (247): 347-362.
  • Uste, A.N. & Aydin, U. 2020. COVID-19 Pandemisi ve Guney Kafkasya’da Sivil Toplum. Turk Dunyasi Arastirmalari 126 (248): 11-24.
  • Zulfigarov, F. & Neuenkirch, M. 2020. The Impact of Oil Prices On Selected Macroeconomic Indicators of Azerbaijan. Economic Systems 44 (4): 100814.
Toplam 35 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ulviyye Aydın 0000-0002-6713-5917

Yayımlanma Tarihi 26 Mart 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 20 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Aydın, U. (2022). COVID-19 Pandemic and Azerbaijan’s Economy: Policy Lessons In Hard Times. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 20(1), 103-120. https://doi.org/10.18026/cbayarsos.988348