İhracat ve Döviz Kurlarının Borsa İstanbul Sanayi Endeksi Üzerindeki Etkileri

Öz

Önde gelen sanayi firmalarını bir araya getiren Borsa İstanbul Sınai Endeksi (XUSIN), Türkiye ekonomisi için oldukça önemlidir. XUSIN'ı etkileyen unsurlar üzerinde birçok çalışma yapılmış olsa da dalgalanmaların arkasındaki nedenleri anlayabilmek için analizlerin güncel tutulması gerekir. Bu çalışmada 2013M01-2023M06 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak, eşbütünleşme için yapısal kırılma kontrollü ARDL sınır testi ve nedensellik için Toda-Yamamoto testi uygulanmıştır. Uzun dönemde ihracat ve reel efektif döviz kuru (REDK) istatistiksel olarak anlamsızken, yapısal kırılmanın endeks üzerinde kalıcı ve negatif bir etkisi vardır. Kısa dönemde REDK'nın değer kazanması XUSIN'ı artırırken, gecikmeli ihracat büyümesi endeksi üç ay sonra baskılamaktadır. Nedensellik ilişkisi tüm değişkenler arasında iki yönlü olarak mevcuttur. Bu durum uzun dönemdeki zayıf esnekliklere karşı değişkenler arasındaki kısa dönemli aktif etkileşimi göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, uzun dönemde rejim değişiklikleri XUSIN'ı şekillendirirken, REDK ve ihracattaki kısa dönemli hareketler, öngörü ve politikalar için daha fazla bilgi taşımaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Borsa İstanbul
• Sanayi Endeksi
• İhracat
• Döviz Kuru

Effects of the Exports and Exchange Rates on Borsa Istanbul Industrial Index

Öz

The Borsa Istanbul Industrial Index (XUSIN) aggregates leading industrial firms and it is central for the Turkish economy. Although many studies conducted on different factors affecting XUSIN, up-to-date analyses are important to understand the reasons behind the fluctuations. In this study, using monthly data for 2013M01-2023M06, ARDL bounds model with a structural break control is estimated for the cointegration relationship together with Toda-Yamamoto causality test. In the long-run, exports and real effective exchange rate (REER) are statistically insignificant whereas the structural break exerts a persistent negative effect on the index. In the short-run, REER appreciation raises XUSIN whereas lagged export growth depresses the index after three months. Causality remains bidirectional among all variables, indicating active short run transmission despite weak long run elasticities. Overall, regime shifts shape the long run level of XUSIN and short run movements in REER and exports carry more information for forecasting and policymaking.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Borsa Istanbul
• Industrial Index
• Export
• Exchange Rate

Kaynakça

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