TCMB Para Politikası Sektörel Enflasyon Beklentilerini Etkiler mi?

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, TCMB tarafından uygulanan para politikalarının sektörel enflasyon beklentileri üzerinde yarattığı etkileri analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada, enflasyon beklentileri ile açıklayıcı değişkenleri arasındaki asimetrik ilişkinin ortaya çıkarılması amacıyla kantil regresyon yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular, TCMB para politikalarının sektörel enflasyon beklentilerini etkileme gücünün oldukça sınırlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Bankanın, daraltıcı para politikası uygulayarak piyasa katılımcılarının ve reel sektör firmalarının enflasyon beklentilerini düşürebileceğine dair ampirik bir kanıt ise bulunanmamıştır. Aksine, daraltıcı para politikaları, bu birimlere ait enflasyon beklentileri üzerinde istikrar bozucu etkiler yaratabilmektedir. Diğer yandan, sıkılaştırıcı para politikası hanehalkı enflasyon beklentilerini düşürebilmektedir. Ancak bu sonuç, enflasyon beklentilerindeki bozulma oldukça ılımlı olduğunda ortaya çıkabilmektedir. Para politikasının sektörel enflasyon beklentilerini farklı şekilde etkilemesinin nedeni, beklenti oluşturma süreçlerinin arkasındaki farklı dinamikler ve parasal aktarım mekanizmasının analiz edilebilme yeteneğindeki farklılıklar tarafından açıklanabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Para Politikası
• Asimetri
• Enflasyon Beklentileri

Do CBRT Monetary Policies Affect Sectoral Inflation Expectations?

Öz

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of the monetary policies implemented by the CBRT on sectoral inflation expectations. The asymmetric relationships between inflation expectations and explanatory variables are revealed by quantile regressions. The empirical findings show that the ability of the CBRT’s monetary policies to affect sectoral inflation expectations is rather limited. This study does not find any empirical evidence that the bank can reduce the inflation expectations of market participants and real sector firms by conducting a contractionary monetary policy. On the contrary, contractionary policies may generate destabilising impacts on the inflation expectations of these economic agents. On the other hand, contractionary monetary policy may reduce household inflation expectations. However, this result can only arise when the deterioration in inflation expectations is quite moderate. The reason why monetary policy affects sectoral inflation rates differently can be explained by the fact that different dynamics behind the expectation formation process and differences in the ability to analyze the monetary transmission mechanism.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Monetary Policy
• Assymetry
• Inflation Expectations

Kaynakça

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