Ticaret Liberalizasyonu ve İhracat Çeşitlendirmesinin İşşizliğe Etkisi : Ampirik bir Analiz

Yıl 2020, , 617 - 638, 25.12.2020

Barbaros Guneri , Zeynep Erünlü

https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.739340

Öz

Bu çalışma, ticaret liberalizasyonu ve ihracat çeşitlendirmesinin toplam işsizlik üzerindeki etkisini bir grup OECD ülkesi için 1991-2014 yılları arasında incelemektedir. Ampirik analizde, liberalizasyon ve ihracat çeşitlendirmesi endekslerinin yanı sıra çok sayıda kontrol değişkeni kullanılmış olup, ülkelerin uluslararası ticaretlerini artırdıkça ve ihracat sepetlerini çeşitlendirdikçe işsizlik oranlarının azaldığı bulunmuştur. Dolayısıyla, OECD ülkelerinin korumacılıktan ziyade ticaretin serbestleştirilmesi lehine politikalar izlemeleri gerektiği söylenebilir. Ayrıca, ihracat sepetlerinin uzmanlaşma yerine çeşitlendirilmesi, işsizlik oranının azaltılmasında büyük önem taşımaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Panel Veri, Ticaret Liberalizasyonu, Dışa Açıklık, Ekonomik Globalleşme, İhracat Çeşitlendirmesi, İşşizlik Oranı

The Effects of Trade Liberalization and Export Diversification on Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis

Öz

This study investigates the effects of trade liberalization and export diversification on total unemployment for a group of OECD countries for the period between 1991 and 2014. In the empirical analysis, several liberalization and export diversification indices as well as various control variables are used and it is found that as countries engage more in international trade and diversify their export baskets, unemployment rate decreases. Thus, it can be argued that OECD countries should follow policies that are in favor of trade liberalization rather than protectionism. Moreover, diversification of export baskets instead of specialization is of great importance in decreasing the unemployment rate.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Panel Data, Trade Liberalization, Trade Openness, Economic Globalization, Export Diversification, Unemployment Rate

Kaynakça

• Ades, A., and E.L. Glaeser. (1999). Evidence on Growth, Increasing Returns, and the Extent of the Market. Quarterly Journal of Economics 114(3), 1025–1045.
• Agénor, P. R., and Aizenman, J. (1996). Trade liberalization and unemployment. Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 5(3), 265-286.
• Agosin, M. R. (2007). Export diversification and growth in emerging economies. Working Paper no. 233, Departamento de Economia, Universidad de Chile.
• Agosin, M. R., Alvarez, R., and Bravo‐Ortega, C. (2012). Determinants of export diversification around the world: 1962–2000. The World Economy, 35(3), 295-315.
• Aidt, T. S., and Tzannatos, Z. (2008). Trade unions, collective bargaining and macroeconomic performance: a review. Industrial Relations Journal, 39(4), 258-295.
• Alcalá, F., and Ciccone, A. (2004). Trade and productivity. The Quarterly journal of economics, 119(2), 613-646.
• Alesina, A., Spolaore, E., and Wacziarg, R. (2000). Economic integration and political disintegration. American Economic Review, 90(5), 1276-1296.
• Amurgo-Pacheco, A., and Pierola, M. D. (2008). Patterns of export diversification in developing countries: intensive and extensive margins. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4473, The World Bank.
• Cadot, O., Carrère, C., and Strauss-Kahn, V. (2011). Export diversification: what's behind the hump?. Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(2), 590-605.
• Coe, D. T., and Helpman, E. (1995). International r&d spillovers. European economic review, 39(5), 859-887.
• Davidson, C., Martin, L., and Matusz, S. (1999). Trade and search generated unemployment. Journal of International Economics, 48(2), 271-299.
• Davis, D. R. (1998). Does European unemployment prop up American wages? National labor markets and global trade. American Economic Review, 478-494.
• Dinopoulos, E., and Thompson, P. (2000). Endogenous growth in a cross-section of countries. Journal of International Economics, 51(2), 335-362.
• Dutt, P., Mitra, D., and Ranjan, P. (2009). International trade and unemployment: Theory and cross-national evidence. Journal of International Economics, 78(1), 32-44.
• Egger, H., and Kreickemeier, U. (2009). Firm heterogeneity and the labor market effects of trade liberalization. International Economic Review, 50(1), 187-216.
• Felbermayr, G., Prat, J., and Schmerer, H. J. (2011a). Globalization and labor market outcomes: Wage bargaining, search frictions, and firm heterogeneity. Journal of Economic theory, 146(1), 39-73.
• Felbermayr, G., Prat, J., and Schmerer, H. J. (2011b). Trade and unemployment: What do the data say?. European Economic Review, 55(6), 741-758.
• Frankel, J. A., and Romer, D. H. (1999). Does trade cause growth?. American economic review, 89(3), 379-399.
• Frenken, K., van Oort, F. G., Verburg, T., and Boschma, R. A. (2005). Variety and regional economic growth in the Netherlands. Regional Studies 41(5), 685–697.
• Fu, X., and Balasubramanyam, V. N. (2005). Exports, foreign direct investment and employment: The case of China. World Economy, 28(4), 607-625.
• Gozgor, G. (2014). The impact of trade openness on the unemployment rate in G7 countries. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 23(7), 1018-1037.
• Gygli, S., Haelg, F., Potrafke, N., and Sturm, J. (2019). The KOF Globalisation Index – Revisited, Review of International Organizations, 14(3), 543-574
• Helpman, E. and Itskhoki, O. (2010). Labor market rigidities, trade and unemployment. Review of Economic Studies, 77 (3), 1100–1137.
• Hesse, H. (2009). Export diversification and economic growth. Breaking into new markets: emerging lessons for export diversification, 55-80.
• International Monetary Fund, IMF (2014). Sustaining long-run growth and macroeconomic stability in low-income countries—the role of structural transformation and diversification.
• Izraeli, O., and Murphy K. (2003). The effect of industrial diversity on state unemployment rate and per capita income, Annals of Regional Science, vol. 37, iss. 1, pp. 1-14.
• Malizia, E. and Ke, S., (1993). The influence of economic diversity on employment and stability, Journal of Regional Science, vol 3, iss. 2, pp. 221-235.
• Melitz, M. J. (2003). The impact of trade on intra‐industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity. Econometrica, 71(6), 1695-1725.
• Mitra, D., and Ranjan, P. (2010). Offshoring and Unemployment: The Role of Search Frictions Labor Mobility. Journal of International Economics 81 (2): 219– 229.
• Moore, M. P., and Ranjan, P. (2005). Globalisation vs Skill‐Biased Technological Change: Implications for Unemployment and Wage Inequality. The Economic Journal, 115(503), 391-422.
• Naudé, W., and Rossouw, R. (2011). Export diversification and economic performance: evidence from Brazil, China, India and South Africa. Economic Change and Restructuring, 44(1-2), 99-134.
• Nwaka, I. D., Uma, K. E., and Tuna, G. (2015). Trade openness and unemployment: Empirical evidence for Nigeria. The Economic and Labour Relations Review, 26(1), 117-136.
• Parteka, A., and Tamberi, M. (2013). What determines export diversification in the development process? Empirical assessment. The World Economy, 36(6), 807-826.
• Rodrik, D. (2005). Policies for economic diversification. Cepal Review 87: 7–23
• Ruiz-Nápoles, P. (2004). Exports, growth, and employment in Mexico, 1978-2000. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 27(1), 105-124.
• Samimi, A.J., S. Ghaderi, R. Hosseinzadeh, and Y. Nademi. (2012). Openness and In- flation: New Empirical Panel Data Evidence. Economics Letters 117(3): 573– 577.
• Sener, F. (2001). Schumpeterian Unemployment, Trade and Wages. Journal of International Economics, 54 (1): 119–148.
• Trendle, B. and Shorney, G. (2003). ‘The affect of industrial diversification on regional economic performance’, Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, vol.9, no.3, pp. 355-369.
• UNCTAD (2018). Export Diversification and Employment in Africa. United Nations
• Visser, J. (2019). ICTWSS Database. version 6.1. Amsterdam: Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies (AIAS), University of Amsterdam.
• Yanikkaya, H. (2003). Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation. Journal of Development economics, 72(1), 57-89.