Çevresel Tahribat ve Yaşlanma İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 3, 931 - 953, 30.09.2025

Fatma Yeşilkaya

Öz

İklim değişikliği, çevresel bozulma ve ekolojik ayak izi tartışmaları önemli ölçüde ivme kazanmıştır. Bu anlamda ekolojik ayak izinin önemli bir bileşeni olan karbon ayak izinin anlaşılması çevresel krizin çözülmesinde oldukça önemlidir. Yaşlanan nüfus, hane halkı tüketimi ve ekonomik faaliyetlerde değişikliklere neden olmaktadır. Özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde, yaşlanan nüfusun karbon ayak izini azaltıcı bir etkisi olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Sanayileşme, fosil yakıtların artan kullanımına ve bunun sonucunda karbon emisyonlarına yol açarken, kentleşme de daha yoğun enerji tüketimi, ulaşım ve altyapı gereksinimleri ile doğrudan ilişkilidir. Yaşlanma, kentleşme ve sanayileşme süreçlerinin karbon ayak izi üzerindeki etkisi farklı gelişmişlik düzeylerine ve kalkınma aşamalarına göre farklı sonuçlar doğurmaktadır. Çalışmada Türkiye’de karbon ayak izi ile yaşlanma, kentleşme ve endüstrileşme arasındaki ilişki zaman serisi analizi ile incelenmiştir. 1969-2022 yılına ait verilerden hareketle eşbütünleşme ve katsayı tahminlemesi yapılmıştır. Katsayı tahminlemesinde FMOLS yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Türkiye'de çevresel tahribat ve yaşlanma üzerine yapılan çalışmada, kentsel nüfus ve endüstriyel büyümenin karbon ayak izini artırdığı, ancak yaşlı nüfusun ayak izini azalttığına dair bulgulara ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

çevresel tahribat , karbon ayakizi , yaşlanma , kentleşme , endüstrileşme

The Link between Environmental Degradation and Aging: An Application on Türkiye

Öz

Discussions on climate change, environmental degradation, and ecological footprint have gained significant momentum. In this sense, understanding the carbon footprint, an essential component of the ecological footprint is very important in solving the environmental crisis. An aging population leads to changes in household consumption and economic activity. Especially in developing countries, an aging population has been observed to have a reducing effect on carbon footprint. Industrialization leads to increased use of fossil fuels and consequent carbon emissions, while urbanization is directly related to more intensive energy consumption, transportation, and infrastructure requirements. The impact of aging, urbanization, and industrialization processes on the carbon footprint have different consequences for different levels and stages of development. This study uses time series analysis to research the connection between carbon footprint and aging, urbanization, and industrialization in Türkiye. Cointegration and coefficient estimation were performed based on data from 1969-2022. FMOLS technique was used in coefficient estimation. The study on the environmental degradation and aging in Türkiye found that urban population and industrial growth increase the carbon footprint, but the footprint of the elderly population decreases.

Anahtar Kelimeler

environmental degradation , carbon footprint , aging , urbanization , industrialization

Kaynakça

• Ali, U., Guo, Q., Nurgazina, Z., Sharif, A., Kartal, M. T., Depren, S. K., & Khan, A. (2023). Heterogeneous impact of industrialization, foreign direct investments, and technological innovation on carbon emissions intensity: Evidence from Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Applied Energy, 336, 120804. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120804
• Arai, Y., & Kurozumi, E. (2007). Testing for the null hypothesis of cointegration with a structural break. Econometric Reviews, 26(6), 705-739. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930701653776
• Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of applied econometrics, 18(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.659
• Bolin, B., Jӓger, J., & Dӧӧs, B. R. (1986). The greenhouse effect, climatic change, and ecosystems. In B. Bolin, R. A. Warrick, B. R. Dӧӧs and J. Jӓger (Eds.) The greenhouse effect climatic change and ecosystems (pp. 1-35). John Wiley & Sons.
• Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, J. L., & Sansó, A. (2006). Testing the null of cointegration with structural breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68(5), 623-646. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2006.00180.x
• Cryer, J. D., & Kellet, N. (1991). Time series analysis. Royal Victorian Institute for the Blind. Tertiary Resource Service. http://repository.cinec.edu/bitstream/cinec20/1228/1/2008_Book_TimeSeriesAnalysis.pdf
• Dalton, M., o'Neill, B., Prskawetz, A., Jiang, L., & Pitkin, J. (2008). Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States. Energy economics, 30(2), 642-675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.07.002
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.1016/1912517
• Ding, Y., & Li, F. (2017). Examining the effects of urbanization and industrialization on carbon dioxide emission: Evidence from China's provincial regions. Energy, 125, 533-542. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.156
• Dong, F., Wang, Y., Su, B., Hua, Y., & Zhang, Y. (2019). The process of peak CO2 emissions in developed economies: A perspective of industrialization and urbanization. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 141, 61-75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2018.10.010
• Erdogan, L., Tiryaki, A., & Ceylan, R. (2018). Türkiye’de uzun dönem ekonomik büyümenin belirleyicilerinin ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR yöntemleriyle tahmini. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 36(4), 39-57. https://doi.org/10.17065/j.huniibf.336371
• Fan, J., Zhou, L., Zhang, Y., Shao, S., & Ma, M. (2021). How does population aging affect household carbon emissions? Evidence from Chinese urban and rural areas. Energy Economics, 100, 105356. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105356
• Farzin, Y. H., & Bond, C. A. (2006). Democracy and environmental quality. Journal of Development Economics, 81(1), 213-235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2005.04.003
• Furman, A., & Yenigun, O. (1995). The environmental dimension. Boğaziçi University Printhouse.
• Griffiths, W. E., Hill, R. C., & Judge, G. G. (1993). Learning and practicing econometrics. Wiley.
• He, J. (2014). Analysis of CO2 emissions peak: China’s objective and strategy. Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment, 12(3), 189-198. https://doi.org/10.1080/10042857.2014.932266
• IPCC (2014). Summary for policymakers, climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. In C. B. Field et al. (Eds.) Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1-44). Cambridge University Press.
• Karanfil, M. (2022). Şehirleşme, sanayileşme ve çevresel tahribat ilişkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir uygulama. Girişimcilik ve Kalkınma Dergisi, 17(2), 77-91.
• Liu, X., & Bae, J. (2018). Urbanization and industrialization impact of CO2 emissions in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 172, 178-186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.10.156
• Liu, B., Tian, C., Li, Y., Song, H., & Ma, Z. (2018). Research on the effects of urbanization on carbon emissions efficiency of urban agglomerations in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 197, 1374-1381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.06.295
• Menz, T., & Welsch, H. (2012). Population aging and carbon emissions in OECD countries: Accounting for life-cycle and cohort effects. Energy Economics, 34(3), 842-849. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.016
• Moraffah, R., Sheth, P., Karami, M., Bhattacharya, A., Wang, Q., Tahir, A., Raglin, A., & Liu, H. (2021). Causal inference for time series analysis: Problems, methods and evaluation. Knowledge and Information Systems, 63, 3041-3085. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10115-021-01621-0
• Ouyang, X., & Lin, B. (2017). Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during urbanization: a comparative study between China and Japan. Journal of Cleaner Production, 143, 356-368. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.12.102
• Pandey, D., Agrawal, M., & Pandey, J. S. (2011). Carbon footprint: Current methods of estimation. Environmental monitoring and assessment, 178, 135-160. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-010-1678-y
• Qiao, R., Liu, X., Gao, S., Liang, D., GesangYangji, G., Xia, L., Zhou, S., Ao, X., Jiang, Q., & Wu, Z. (2024). Industrialization, urbanization, and innovation: Nonlinear drivers of carbon emissions in Chinese cities. Applied Energy, 358, 122598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122598
• Shi, A. (2003). The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975–1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data. Ecological economics, 44(1), 29-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(02)00223-9
• Tsong, C. C., Lee, C. F., Tsai, L. J., & Hu, T. C. (2016). The Fourier approximation and testing for the null of cointegration. Empirical Economics, 51, 1085-1113. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-1028-6
• Wang, W. Z., Liu, L. C., Liao, H., & Wei, Y. M. (2021). Impacts of urbanization on carbon emissions: An empirical analysis from OECD countries. Energy Policy, 151, 112171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112171
• Wang, Q., & Wang, L. (2021). The nonlinear effects of population aging, industrial structure, and urbanization on carbon emissions: A panel threshold regression analysis of 137 countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 287, 125381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125381
• WB. (2009). World development report 2010: Development and climate change. The World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4387
• Wu, Y., Shen, J., Zhang, X., Skitmore, M., & Lu, W. (2016). The impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in developing countries: A Chinese study based on the U-Kaya method. Journal of Cleaner Production, 135, 589-603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.06.121
• Xu, Q., Dong, Y. X., & Yang, R. (2018). Urbanization impact on carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta region: Kuznets curve relationships. Journal of Cleaner Production, 180, 514-523. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.01.194
• York, R., Rosa, E. A., & Dietz, T. (2003). STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: Analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts. Ecological economics, 46(3), 351-365. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(03)00188-5
• Yuce, G. (2012). Türkiye’de A tipi hisse senedi fonları getirilerinin mikro belirleyicileri: Bir zaman serisi analizi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 17(3), 283-300.
• Zhang, C., & Tan, Z. (2016). The relationships between population factors and China's carbon emissions: does population aging matter?. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 65, 1018-1025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.06.083
• Zheng, S., Wang, R., Mak, T. M., Hsu, S. C., & Tsang, D. C. (2021). How energy service companies moderate the impact of industrialization and urbanization on carbon emissions in China?. Science of the Total Environment, 751, 141610. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141610
• Zhu, Z., Liu, Y., Tian, X., Wang, Y., & Zhang, Y. (2017). CO2 emissions from the industrialization and urbanization processes in the manufacturing center Tianjin in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 168, 867-875. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.08.245
• Zivot, E., Andrews, D.W.K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistic, 10, 251-270.