TÜRKİYE’DE DOLAR KURU VE TURİZM GELİRİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN KISA VE UZUN DÖNEMDE ANALİZİ

Öz

Türkiye, doğal güzellikleri, tarihi ve kültürel mirası, elverişli iklimi ve konukseverlik geleneği ile küresel turizm pazarında önemli bir konuma sahiptir. Turizm sektörü, ekonomik büyümeyi destekleyen ve önemli miktarda döviz geliri sağlayan sektörlerden biridir. Turizm gelirlerinin artması bir yandan döviz arzını artırarak döviz kuru üzerinde baskılayıcı bir etki yaratırken diğer yandan dolar/TL kurundaki artışın Türk lirasının değer kaybını yansıtması, yabancı turistlerin Türkiye’deki satın alma güçlerini artırarak turist sayısı ve turizm gelirlerinin yükselmesine katkıda bulunabilmektedir. Son yıllarda, Türkiye özellikle kıyı turizmi, kültürel turizm, sağlık turizmi ve kongre turizmi gibi çeşitli turizm alanlarına yatırımlar yaparak sektörü çeşitlendirmiş ve ekonomiye olan katkısını artırmıştır. Turizm sektörü, doğrudan ve dolaylı olarak milyonlarca kişiye istihdam sağlayarak özellikle hizmet sektöründe geniş bir iş gücü piyasası da oluşturmaktadır. Konaklama, ulaşım, yiyecek ve içecek hizmetleri ile eğlence gibi sektörler, turizmin genişlemesi sayesinde büyümüştür. Ayrıca, son yıllarda Türkiye’nin turizm politikalarında sürdürülebilirlik ve çeşitlendirme ön plana çıkmıştır. Kültürel mirasın korunması, ekoturizmin teşvik edilmesi ve turizm sezonunun uzatılması, sektörün ekonomik katkısını artırmak için geliştirilen başlıca stratejiler arasındadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de ABD doları ve turizm gelirleri arasındaki eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik ilişkileri genel fiyat düzeyi de dikkate alınarak incelenmiştir. Analizde 2012Q1–2025Q1 dönemine ait çeyreklik veriler kullanılmış olup verilere yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi, Engle–Granger eşbütünleşme testi, VAR modeli ve Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, dolar kuru ile turizm gelirleri arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin bulunmadığını göstermiştir. Kısa dönemde ise dolar kurundan turizm gelirlerine doğru tek yönlü, dolar kuru ile genel fiyat düzeyi arasında ise çift yönlü Granger nedensellik ilişkileri tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turizm Gelirleri
• Döviz Kuru
• Türkiye
• Granger Nedensellik.
• Genel Fiyat Düzeyi

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE US DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE AND TOURISM REVENUE IN TÜRKİYE IN THE SHORT AND LONG RUN

Öz

Türkiye holds a significant position in the global tourism market due to its natural beauty, historical and cultural heritage, favorable climate, and tradition of hospitality. The tourism sector is one of the key sectors that contribute to economic growth and generate substantial foreign exchange earnings. An increase in tourism revenues may raise the supply of foreign currency and thereby exert downward pressure on the exchange rate. On the other hand, an increase in the USD/TRY exchange rate, reflecting a depreciation of the Turkish lira, may enhance the purchasing power of foreign tourists in Türkiye and thereby contribute to increases in both tourist arrivals and tourism revenues. In recent years, Türkiye has diversified its tourism sector and increased its contribution to the economy through investments in areas such as coastal tourism, cultural tourism, health tourism, and congress tourism. The sector also provides substantial direct and indirect employment, particularly in accommodation, transportation, food and beverage services, and entertainment. In addition, sustainability and diversification have become increasingly prominent in Türkiye’s tourism policies. Preserving cultural heritage, promoting ecotourism, and extending the tourism season are among the main strategies aimed at enhancing the sector’s economic contribution. This study examines the cointegration and causality relationships between the US dollar exchange rate and tourism revenues in Türkiye while also accounting for the general price level through the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The analysis employs quarterly data covering the period 2012Q1–2025Q1 and applies a structural-break unit root test, the Engle–Granger cointegration test, a vector autoregression (VAR) model, and the Granger causality test. The findings indicate that there is no long-run relationship between the US dollar exchange rate and tourism revenues. In the short run, however, a unidirectional Granger causality relationship is found from the US dollar exchange rate to tourism revenues, while a bidirectional Granger causality relationship is identified between the US dollar exchange rate and the Consumer Price Index.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tourism Revenues
• Exchange Rate
• Türkiye
• Granger Causality.
• Consumer Price Index

Kaynakça

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