Business Cycle Analysis in the Turkish Economy (1998-2011):Hodrick-Prescott Filter

Öz

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Anahtar Kelimeler

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Türkiye Ekonomisinde İş Çevrimleri Kuramı (1998-2011): Hodrick-Prescott Filtresi

Öz

Makroekonomik yapıda çevrimsel ilişkilerin incelenmesinin önemi büyüktür. Türkiye ekonomisindeki kronik enflasyonist ortam düşünüldüğünde bu ilişkinin incelenmesinde reel milli gelir ve enflasyon çevrimsel ilişkiyi açıklamakta oldukça iyi iki uygun değişken olmaktadır. Çalışmada Hodrick ve Prescott (HP) tarafından önerilen ayrıştırma yöntemi kullanılmıştır. İş çevrimleri analizinde HP filtresinde optimal parametre seçimi önemli ve gerekli olduğu için 1998Q1-2011Q2 inceleme dönemi için elde edilen bulgular λ=1600, λ=98 ve λ=19 değerleri seçilerek karşılaştırılmıştır. Sonuç olarak Türkiye için uygulanan optimal λ parametresinin standart 1600 değerinin çok altında olması gerektiği görülmüştür

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İş Çevrimleri, Reel Gelir, Enflasyon, HP Filtresi

Kaynakça

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