Kayıtdışı Ekonominin Sektörel Analizi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Amaç: Kayıtdışı ekonomi ekonomik faaliyetlerin resmi ulusal gelir hesaplarına kaydedilmemesi veya eksik kaydedilmesi olarak tanımlanabilir. Türkiye’de kayıtdışı ekonominin büyüklüğü milli gelirin yaklaşık %25’ini oluşturmaktadır (Elgin vd., 2021). Bir başka deyişle Türkiye ekonomisindeki faaliyetlerin dörtte biri kayıt dışıdır. Bu bağlamda, Türk ekonomisinin en temel sorunlarından biri olan kayıtdışı faaliyetlerin nedenlerinin belirlenmesi önem arz etmektedir. Yöntem: Bu çalışmada, 1990-2018 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak Türkiye’deki tarım, sanayi, imalat ve hizmetler sektörü dağılımının kayıtdışı ekonomi üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla öncelikle Genişletilmiş Dickey Fuller ve Phillips-Perron birim kök testleri kullanılarak değişkenlerin durağanlıkları sınanmıştır. Değişkenlerin düzeyde ve birinci farklarında durağan olduğu tespit edildikten sonra Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif sınır testi ile değişkenlerdeki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi sınanmıştır. Değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edildiğinden Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif modeli genel tahmin sonuçları ile uzun ve kısa dönem katsayıları belirlenmiştir. Bulgular: Analiz sonuçlarına göre, GSYH içinde tarımın payı %1 arttığında kayıtdışı ekonomi %0,79 artmaktadır. Buna karşın GSYH içinde sanayi sektörünün payı %1 arttıkça kayıtdışı ekonomi %0,82 ve hizmetler sektörünün payı %1 arttığında kayıtdışı ekonomi %1,12 azalmaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlar, Türkiye’de tarım sektörünün kayıtdışı ekonomiyi arttırdığını göstermektedir. Bu bağlamda gerekli politika önlemlerinin alınarak olası çözüm yollarının geliştirilmesi gerekmektedir. Özgünlük: Literatürde ağırlıklı olarak kayıtdışı ekonomiyi tahmin etme yönünde araştırmalar mevcuttur. Ancak tarım, sanayi, hizmetler gibi temel sektörlerin Türkiye GSMH’si içindeki gelişiminin kayıtdışılık üzerindeki etkisini araştıran çalışmaya rastlanılmamıştır. Ayrıca çalışmada kullanılan yöntem, açıklayıcı, kontrol ve kukla değişkenler bağlamında benzer çalışmalardan farklılaşmaktadır. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre, Türkiye’de GSMH içinde tarım sektörünün payı arttıkça kayıtdışı ekonomi artmaktadır. Çalışmanın bu sonucu tarım sektörü özelinde gerekli politikaların uygulanması yönünde yol gösterici olabilecektir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kayıtdışı Ekonomi
• Sektörel Analiz
• ARDL
• Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Sectoral Analysis of the Informal Economy: A Case Study in Turkey

Öz

Purpose: Informal economy can be defined as not registering economic activities in official national income accounts or registering them incompletely. Turkey's informal economy accounts for around 25% of national income. In other words, one quarter of Turkey's economic activity is not included in the statistics. In this context, it is important to determine the causes of informal activities, one of the major problems of Turkey's economy. Methodology: In this study, the impact of the distribution of the agricultural, industrial, manufacturing and services sector in Turkey on the informal economy was studied. This research aims to examine the empirical cointegration, long and short run dynamics between main sectors and informal economy in Turkey over the period of 1990–2018. For this purpose, the stagnation of variables was examined by using the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests. Once the variables were determined to be stationary at the level and at the first difference, the cointegration relationship in the series was tested with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test. The analysis finds out that there is a cointegration in the variables. The short run and long run relationships between variables are identified by Error Correction Model (ECM) and the ARDL cointegration test respectively. Findings: The results of the analysis show that as the share of agriculture in GDP increases by 1%, the informal economy increases by 0.79%. In addition, as the industrial sector's share of GDP increases by 1%, the informal economy decreases by 0.82% and as the services sector's share of GDP increases by 1%, the informal economy decreases by 1.12%. The empirical results indicate that the Turkish agricultural sector is increasing the informal economy. In this context, possible solutions need to be developed with the necessary policy measures. Originality: A large number of studies on estimating the informal economy are found in the literature. However, no study has been found that investigates the impact of the development of basic sectors such as agriculture, industry and services within Turkey's GNP on informality. In addition, the method used in the study differs from previous studies in terms of explanatory, control and dummy variables. According to the study's findings, the informal economy increases in conjunction to the agriculture sector's share of Turkey's GNP. This study's findings can be used as a guide for implementing appropriate policies, particularly in the agriculture sector.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Informal Economy
• Sectoral Analysis
• ARDL
• Co-integration Analyses

Kaynakça

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