NEET Olgusu Bağlamında Genç İşsizliği: Türkiye’de Makroekonomik ve Sosyo-Demografik Dinamikler

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2000–2023 döneminde Türkiye’de NEET (Ne Eğitimde Ne İstihdamda Olan) oranının makroekonomik ve sosyo-demografik belirleyicilerini incelemektedir. Analizlerde üç farklı ARDL modeli kullanılmış ve kısa ile uzun dönem dinamikleri değerlendirilmiştir. Modellerde işsizlik, enflasyon, GSYH, ihracat gibi makroekonomik göstergeler ile eğitimli işsizlik, eğitim harcamaları, bağımlı nüfus oranı ve kadın işgücüne katılım gibi sosyo-demografik faktörler yer almıştır. Ayrıca 2008 küresel finans krizi ve COVID-19 pandemisi gibi şok dönemleri analizlere dahil edilmiştir. Bulgular, NEET’in yüksek bir kalıcılık gösterdiğini ve geçmiş değerlerin güncel oranları belirlemede etkili olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Kısa dönemde işsizlik ve kriz şokları NEET’i artırırken, eğitim ve işsizlik göstergeleri karmaşık etkiler göstermektedir. Uzun dönemde ise makroekonomik dalgalanmalar, demografik yapılar ve toplumsal cinsiyet temelli işgücü dinamikleri belirleyici rol oynamaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, gençlerin eğitim ve işgücü piyasasından uzun süreli kopmalarını önlemek için ekonomik istikrar ve eğitim politikalarının önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• NEET
• genç işsizlik
• ARDL
• Türkiye
• makroekonomik ve sosyo-demografik belirleyiciler

Youth Unemployment in the Context of the NEET Phenomenon: Macroeconomic and Socio-Demographic Dynamics in Türkiye

Öz

This study examines the macroeconomic and socio-demographic determinants of the NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) rate in Turkey over the period 2000–2023. Three ARDL model specifications are employed to capture both short- and long-term dynamics. The models include macroeconomic variables such as unemployment, inflation, GDP, and exports, alongside socio-demographic factors including educated unemployment, government spending on education, dependent population ratio, and female labor force participation. Crisis periods, specifically the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, are incorporated to assess extraordinary impacts on youth labor market engagement. Results indicate that NEET exhibits strong persistence, with past values significantly influencing current levels. In the short run, unemployment and crisis shocks increase NEET, while education and labor market participation indicators show complex effects. Long-term analysis reveals that macroeconomic instability, demographic structures, and gender-based labor market dynamics are critical determinants. These findings highlight the multidimensional nature of NEET and emphasize the importance of economic stability and education policies in preventing prolonged disengagement of youth from education and the labor market.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• NEET
• youth unemployment
• ARDL
• Turkey
• macroeconomic and socio-demographic determinants

Kaynakça

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