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Bulanık Suda Balık Avlamak: Trickle-Down Etkisinin Türkiye Ekonomisinde Bölgeler-Arası Tahmini

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 44, 195 - 220, 01.01.2015

Öz

Neoliberal teori; eşitsizliklerin, düşük gelir gruplarına doğru trickle-down mekanizması vasıtasıyla telafi edilebileceğini öne sürmesine rağmen, gerçek dünya deneyimleri nüfusun büyük bir kısmının ekonomik büyümenin faydalarına ulaşmakta başarısız olduğunu göstermiştir. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ekonomisinde 12 alt-bölge itibariyle trickle-down etkisinin geçerliliğini panel veri analizlerini kullanarak incelemektir. Tesadüfî etkili model tahmin sonuçları, zengin ve yoksul sınıfın gelirlerinde meydana gelen bir artışın diğer grubun gelirini artırdığını göstermiştir. Bununla birlikte, yoksul sınıftan zengin sınıfa doğru gelir transferinin yarattığı katkının, zengin sınıfın yarattığı gelir transfer katkısına kıyasla daha baskın olduğu da açıkça belirtilebilir. Dolayısıyla, trickle-down etkisinin Türkiye ekonomisi itibariyle geçerli olmadığı aşikârdır.

Kaynakça

  • Aghion, P. ve Bolton, P. (1997) “A Theory of Trickle-Down Growth and Development”, Review of Economic Studies, 64(2), 151-172.
  • Basu, S. ve Mallick, S. (2007) “Is Growth Alone Sufficient to Reduce Poverty? In Search of the Trickle Down Effect in Rural India”, Arestis, P., Baddeley, M. ve McCombie, J.S.L. (Der), Economic Growth: New Directions in Theory and Policy içinde, USA: Edward Elgar Publishing, 259-278.
  • Basu, S. ve Mallick, S. (2008) “When Does Growth Trickle Down to the Poor? The Indian Case”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32(3), 461-477.
  • Bhanumurthy, N. R. ve Mitra, A. (2004) “Declining Poverty in India: A Decomposition Analysis”, The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, 47(2), 311-322.
  • Chadha, G. K. (1994) Employment, Earning and Poverty: A Study of Rural India and Indonesia, New Delhi: Sage Publications.
  • Çınar, S. (2010) “OECD Ülkelerinde Kişi Başına GSYİH Durağan Mı? Panel Veri Analizi”, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 29(2), 591-601.
  • Deininger, K. ve Okidi, J. (2003) “Growth and Poverty Reduction in Uganda, 1999-2000: Panel Data Evidence”, Development Policy Review, 21(4), 481-509.
  • Dollar, D. ve Kraay, A. (2002) “Growth Is Good for the Poor”, Journal of Economic Growth, 7(3), 195-225.
  • Dreze, J. ve Sen, A. (1990) Hunger and Public Action, Oxford: Clarendon Press.
  • Frank, R. H. (2007) “In the Real World of Work and Wages, Trickle-Down Theories Don’t Hold Up”, The New York Times Economic Scene, April 12, http://novellaqalive2.mhhe.com/sites/dl/free/007337573x/507226/In_the _Real_World_of_Work_and_Wages.pdf, (23.06.2014)
  • Garrett, G. ve Mitchel, D. (2001) “Globalization, Government Spending and Taxation in the OECD”, European Journal of Political Research, 39(2), 145-177.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1964) Spectral Analysis of Economic Time Series, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
  • Greenwood, D. T. ve Holt, R.P.F. (2010) “Growth, Inequality and Negative Trickle Down”, Journal of Economic Issues, 44(2), 403-410.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1994) Time Series Analysis, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Hirsch, B. T. (1980) “Poverty and Economic Growth: Has Trickle Down Petered Out?”, Economic Inquiry, 18(1), 151-158.
  • Jalilian, H. ve Kirkpatrick, C. (2002) “Financial Development and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries”, International Journal of Finance & Economics, 7(2), 97-108.
  • Kakwani, N. ve Pernia, E. M. (2000) “What is Pro-Poor Growth?”, Asian Development Review, 18(1), 1-16.
  • Kao, C. (1999) “Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data”, Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1-44.
  • McKay, A. ve Sumner, A. (2008) “Economic Growth, Inequality and Poverty Reduction: Does Pro-Poor Growth Matter?”, IDS in Focus, 3, 1-4.
  • Melamed, C., Hartwig, R. ve Grant, U. (2011) “Jobs, Growth and Poverty: What Do We Know, What Don’t We Know, What Should We Know”, Overseas Development Institute, Background Note, No: 7121.
  • Newman, B. A. ve Thomson, R. J. (1989) “Economic Growth and Social Development: A Longitudinal Analysis of Causal Priority”, World Development, 17(4), 461-471.
  • Norton, S. W. (2002) “Economic Growth and Poverty: In Search of Trickle- Down”, Cato Journal, 22(2), 263-275.
  • Odhiambo, N. M. (2011) “Growth, Employment and Poverty in South Africa: In Search of a Trickle-Down Effect”, Journal of Income Distribution, 20(1), 49-62.
  • Ogün, T. P. (2010) “Infrastructure and Poverty Reduction: Implications for Urban Development in Nigeria”, WIDER Working Paper, No: 2010/43.
  • Owyong, D. T. (2000) “Measuring the Trickle-Down Effect: A Case Study on Singapore”, Applied Economics Letters, 7(8), 535-539.
  • Parel, D.K.C. (2014) “Growth and Redistribution: Is There Trickle Down Effect in the Philippines?”, Philippine Institute for Development Studies, Discussion Paper, No: 2014-02.
  • Pedroni, P. (1999) “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), 653-670.
  • Qureshi, M. A. (2008) “Challenging Trickle-Down Approach: Modelling and Simulation of Public Expenditure and Human Development-The Case of Pakistan”, International Journal of Social Economics, 35(4), 269-282.
  • Ranis, G., Stewart, F. ve Ramirez, A. (2000) “Economic Growth and Human Development”, World Development, 28(2), 197-219.
  • Squire, L. (1993) “Fighting Poverty”, The American Economic Review, 83(2), 377-382.
  • Streeten, P. (1994) “Human Development: Means and Ends”, The American Economic Review, 84(2), 232-237.
  • Thornton, J. R., Agnello, R. J. ve Link, C. R. (1978) “Poverty and Economic Growth: Trickle Down Peters Out”, Economic Inquiry, 16(3), 385-394.
  • Todaro, M. P. (1997) Economic Development, 6th Ed., USA: Addison-Wesley Publishing.
  • Treas, J. (1983) “Trickle Down or Transfers? Postwar Determinants of Family Income Inequality”, American Sociological Review, 48(4), 546-559.
  • Yang, S.C.S. (2007) “Do Capital Income Tax Cuts Trickle-Down?”, National Tax Journal, 60(3), 551-567.

Fishing in Troubled Waters: The Inter-Regional Estimation of Trickle-Down Effect in Turkish Economy

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 44, 195 - 220, 01.01.2015

Öz

Although neoliberal theory asserts that inequality would be offset by a trickle-down mechanism to lower income groups, the experiences of the real world have shown that most of the population in countries have failed to reach benefits from income growth. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the validity of trickle-down effect by using panel data analysis for 12 sub-regions in the period of 2006-2012 in Turkish economy. The estimation results of random effect model point out that an increase in the incomes of the rich raises the incomes of the poor and vice versa. Nevertheless it can be clearly said that the contribution of the income transfer of the poor to the rich is more dominant than the contribution of the other class. Hence, the invalidity of trickle-down effect is obvious in Turkey

Kaynakça

  • Aghion, P. ve Bolton, P. (1997) “A Theory of Trickle-Down Growth and Development”, Review of Economic Studies, 64(2), 151-172.
  • Basu, S. ve Mallick, S. (2007) “Is Growth Alone Sufficient to Reduce Poverty? In Search of the Trickle Down Effect in Rural India”, Arestis, P., Baddeley, M. ve McCombie, J.S.L. (Der), Economic Growth: New Directions in Theory and Policy içinde, USA: Edward Elgar Publishing, 259-278.
  • Basu, S. ve Mallick, S. (2008) “When Does Growth Trickle Down to the Poor? The Indian Case”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32(3), 461-477.
  • Bhanumurthy, N. R. ve Mitra, A. (2004) “Declining Poverty in India: A Decomposition Analysis”, The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, 47(2), 311-322.
  • Chadha, G. K. (1994) Employment, Earning and Poverty: A Study of Rural India and Indonesia, New Delhi: Sage Publications.
  • Çınar, S. (2010) “OECD Ülkelerinde Kişi Başına GSYİH Durağan Mı? Panel Veri Analizi”, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 29(2), 591-601.
  • Deininger, K. ve Okidi, J. (2003) “Growth and Poverty Reduction in Uganda, 1999-2000: Panel Data Evidence”, Development Policy Review, 21(4), 481-509.
  • Dollar, D. ve Kraay, A. (2002) “Growth Is Good for the Poor”, Journal of Economic Growth, 7(3), 195-225.
  • Dreze, J. ve Sen, A. (1990) Hunger and Public Action, Oxford: Clarendon Press.
  • Frank, R. H. (2007) “In the Real World of Work and Wages, Trickle-Down Theories Don’t Hold Up”, The New York Times Economic Scene, April 12, http://novellaqalive2.mhhe.com/sites/dl/free/007337573x/507226/In_the _Real_World_of_Work_and_Wages.pdf, (23.06.2014)
  • Garrett, G. ve Mitchel, D. (2001) “Globalization, Government Spending and Taxation in the OECD”, European Journal of Political Research, 39(2), 145-177.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1964) Spectral Analysis of Economic Time Series, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
  • Greenwood, D. T. ve Holt, R.P.F. (2010) “Growth, Inequality and Negative Trickle Down”, Journal of Economic Issues, 44(2), 403-410.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1994) Time Series Analysis, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Hirsch, B. T. (1980) “Poverty and Economic Growth: Has Trickle Down Petered Out?”, Economic Inquiry, 18(1), 151-158.
  • Jalilian, H. ve Kirkpatrick, C. (2002) “Financial Development and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries”, International Journal of Finance & Economics, 7(2), 97-108.
  • Kakwani, N. ve Pernia, E. M. (2000) “What is Pro-Poor Growth?”, Asian Development Review, 18(1), 1-16.
  • Kao, C. (1999) “Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data”, Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1-44.
  • McKay, A. ve Sumner, A. (2008) “Economic Growth, Inequality and Poverty Reduction: Does Pro-Poor Growth Matter?”, IDS in Focus, 3, 1-4.
  • Melamed, C., Hartwig, R. ve Grant, U. (2011) “Jobs, Growth and Poverty: What Do We Know, What Don’t We Know, What Should We Know”, Overseas Development Institute, Background Note, No: 7121.
  • Newman, B. A. ve Thomson, R. J. (1989) “Economic Growth and Social Development: A Longitudinal Analysis of Causal Priority”, World Development, 17(4), 461-471.
  • Norton, S. W. (2002) “Economic Growth and Poverty: In Search of Trickle- Down”, Cato Journal, 22(2), 263-275.
  • Odhiambo, N. M. (2011) “Growth, Employment and Poverty in South Africa: In Search of a Trickle-Down Effect”, Journal of Income Distribution, 20(1), 49-62.
  • Ogün, T. P. (2010) “Infrastructure and Poverty Reduction: Implications for Urban Development in Nigeria”, WIDER Working Paper, No: 2010/43.
  • Owyong, D. T. (2000) “Measuring the Trickle-Down Effect: A Case Study on Singapore”, Applied Economics Letters, 7(8), 535-539.
  • Parel, D.K.C. (2014) “Growth and Redistribution: Is There Trickle Down Effect in the Philippines?”, Philippine Institute for Development Studies, Discussion Paper, No: 2014-02.
  • Pedroni, P. (1999) “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), 653-670.
  • Qureshi, M. A. (2008) “Challenging Trickle-Down Approach: Modelling and Simulation of Public Expenditure and Human Development-The Case of Pakistan”, International Journal of Social Economics, 35(4), 269-282.
  • Ranis, G., Stewart, F. ve Ramirez, A. (2000) “Economic Growth and Human Development”, World Development, 28(2), 197-219.
  • Squire, L. (1993) “Fighting Poverty”, The American Economic Review, 83(2), 377-382.
  • Streeten, P. (1994) “Human Development: Means and Ends”, The American Economic Review, 84(2), 232-237.
  • Thornton, J. R., Agnello, R. J. ve Link, C. R. (1978) “Poverty and Economic Growth: Trickle Down Peters Out”, Economic Inquiry, 16(3), 385-394.
  • Todaro, M. P. (1997) Economic Development, 6th Ed., USA: Addison-Wesley Publishing.
  • Treas, J. (1983) “Trickle Down or Transfers? Postwar Determinants of Family Income Inequality”, American Sociological Review, 48(4), 546-559.
  • Yang, S.C.S. (2007) “Do Capital Income Tax Cuts Trickle-Down?”, National Tax Journal, 60(3), 551-567.
Toplam 36 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Merter Akıncı Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Ocak 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2015 Cilt: 1 Sayı: 44

Kaynak Göster

APA Akıncı, M. (2015). Bulanık Suda Balık Avlamak: Trickle-Down Etkisinin Türkiye Ekonomisinde Bölgeler-Arası Tahmini. Çalışma Ve Toplum, 1(44), 195-220.
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