Testing the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: The Case of Vietnam

Öz

Vietnam adopted an outward-oriented and export-led growth strategy with the implementation of the “Doi Moi” reforms in 1986; during this process, it significantly increased both the volume and diversity of its exports, thereby accelerating its integration into the global economy. The fact that exports became one of the main driving forces of economic growth during the transition from central planning to market mechanisms constitutes the primary reason for selecting the Vietnamese economy as the subject of this study. Recent developments and performance in the Vietnamese economy provide important insights not only for the country itself but also for other economies adopting similar development strategies. In this study, the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis is empirically examined using data from the period 1986–2024. The results of the cointegration analysis reveal the existence of a long-run and stable relationship among the variables, while the findings from the causality analysis strongly support the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis in the Vietnamese economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Export-Led Growth Hypothesis
• “Doi Moi” Reform
• Vietnam
• Granger Causality

İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi: Vietnam Örneği

Öz

Vietnam, 1986 yılında uygulamaya koyduğu “Doi Moi” reformları ile dışa açık ve ihracata dayalı bir büyüme stratejisini benimsemiş; bu süreçte ihracat hacmini ve çeşitliliğini önemli ölçüde artırarak dünya ekonomisiyle entegrasyonunu hızlandırmıştır. Merkezi planlamadan piyasa mekanizmalarına geçiş sürecinde ihracatın ekonomik büyümenin temel itici güçlerinden biri hâline gelmesi, Vietnam ekonomisinin bu çalışmanın araştırma konusu olarak seçilmesinin temel nedenidir. Vietnam ekonomisinde son yıllarda gözlenen dönüşüm ve performans, yalnızca ülke açısından değil, benzer kalkınma stratejilerini benimseyen ekonomiler için de önemli çıkarımlar sunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 1986–2024 dönemine ait veriler kullanılarak ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezinin geçerliliği ampirik olarak incelenmiştir. Eşbütünleşme analizi bulguları, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ve istikrarlı bir ilişkinin varlığını ortaya koyarken; nedensellik analizi sonuçları, Vietnam ekonomisinde ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu güçlü biçimde desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İhracta Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi
• “Doi Moi” Reform
• Vietnam
• Granger Nedensellik

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