TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞININ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİNİN ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışma 1923-2019 ve 2008:1-2020:8 dönemini kapsayan veri setiyle Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığının sürdürülebilirliğini incelemektedir. Veri seti alt dönemlere bölünerek çeşitli geleneksel ve yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri ve eşbütünleşme analizleri ve hata düzeltme modeli uygulanmaktadır. Bulgular ihracat ve ithalat serisinin bütün alt dönemlerde eşbütünleşik olduğunu ve Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığının zayıf formda sürdürülebilir olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışma, veri seti üzerine kapsamı ekonometrik analizler yapılarak kapsayıcı bir bir yaklaşım uygulanması yönüyle Türkiye’deki cari işlemler açığı literatürüne katkı sağlamaktadır. Cari açığı kapatmak veya güçlü formda sürdürebilmek için, üretimde ithal girdilerin payı azaltılması, ihracat yapan firmalara teşvik verilmesi, ithal ikame üretim süreçlerinin cesaretlendirilmesi gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Cari İşlemler Açığı
• Eşbütünleşme Testleri
• Hata Düzeltme Modeli

ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY

Öz

This paper examines the sustainability of current account deficit in Turkey with the help of an annual and a monthly data set covering the period 1923-2019 and 2008:1-2020:8, respectively. The data set is divided into subperiods and is implemented various traditional and breakpoint unit root tests, cointegration analysis and error correction models (ECM). The findings reveal that the export and import series are cointegrated for all of subperiods, and that the current account deficit is sustainable in Turkey in a weak form. This study employs a comprehensive approach by implementing miscellaneous econometric analysis on the data set to contribute the current literature on current account deficit in Turkey. As to our policy recommendation, in order to sustain it in strong form or close, reducing the share of imported inputs in the production, granting incentives to exporting firms and import substituted production should be encouraged.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Current Account Deficit
• Cointegration Analysis
• Error Correction Model

Kaynakça

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