TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞININ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİNİN ANALİZİ

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 1, 161 - 178, 30.06.2021

Zeynep Gizem Can Ufuk Can

https://doi.org/10.51945/cuiibfd.911559

Öz

Bu çalışma 1923-2019 ve 2008:1-2020:8 dönemini kapsayan veri setiyle Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığının sürdürülebilirliğini incelemektedir. Veri seti alt dönemlere bölünerek çeşitli geleneksel ve yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri ve eşbütünleşme analizleri ve hata düzeltme modeli uygulanmaktadır. Bulgular ihracat ve ithalat serisinin bütün alt dönemlerde eşbütünleşik olduğunu ve Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığının zayıf formda sürdürülebilir olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışma, veri seti üzerine kapsamı ekonometrik analizler yapılarak kapsayıcı bir bir yaklaşım uygulanması yönüyle Türkiye’deki cari işlemler açığı literatürüne katkı sağlamaktadır. Cari açığı kapatmak veya güçlü formda sürdürebilmek için, üretimde ithal girdilerin payı azaltılması, ihracat yapan firmalara teşvik verilmesi, ithal ikame üretim süreçlerinin cesaretlendirilmesi gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Cari İşlemler Açığı, Eşbütünleşme Testleri, Hata Düzeltme Modeli

ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY

Öz

This paper examines the sustainability of current account deficit in Turkey with the help of an annual and a monthly data set covering the period 1923-2019 and 2008:1-2020:8, respectively. The data set is divided into subperiods and is implemented various traditional and breakpoint unit root tests, cointegration analysis and error correction models (ECM). The findings reveal that the export and import series are cointegrated for all of subperiods, and that the current account deficit is sustainable in Turkey in a weak form. This study employs a comprehensive approach by implementing miscellaneous econometric analysis on the data set to contribute the current literature on current account deficit in Turkey. As to our policy recommendation, in order to sustain it in strong form or close, reducing the share of imported inputs in the production, granting incentives to exporting firms and import substituted production should be encouraged.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Current Account Deficit, Cointegration Analysis, Error Correction Model

Kaynakça

• Acikgoz, S., & Akcaglayan, A. (2014). Türkiye’de Cari İşlemler Açığının Sürdürülebilirliği. Ege Academic Review, 14(1).
• Akcay, C., & Ozler, S. (1998). Current Account Position of the Turkish Economy: Is There Any Cause for Concern?. Boğaziçi Journal Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 12(1), 39-53.
• Akcayir, O., & Albeni, M. (2016). Impact of Credit Expansion on the Current Account Deficit in Turkey: Bound Test Approach. Çankırı Karatekin University, Journal of The Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 6(1), 557-583.
• Akdis, M., Peker, O., & Gormus, S. (2006). Is the Turkish Current Account Deficit Sustainable? An Econometric Analysis.
• Akgul, I., Koc, S., & Koc, S. O. (2007). Cari İşlemler Dengesi Rejim Değişim Modelleri ile Modellenebilir mi? 8. Türkiye Ekonometri ve İstatistik Kongresi, 24-25.
• Altunoz, U. (2014). Cari Açık Sorununun Temel Nedenleri ve Sürdürülebilirliği: Türkiye Örneği.
• Babaoglu, B. (2005). Türkiye’de Cari İşlemler Dengesi Sürdürülebilirliği. TC Merkez Bankası. Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, Ankara.
• Blanchard, O. (2007). Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries. IMF Staff Papers, 54(2),191-219.
• Callen, M. T., & Cashin, M. P. (1999). Assessing External Sustainability in India (No. 99-181). International Monetary Fund.
• Chen, S. W. (2011). Current Account Deficits and Sustainability: Evidence from the OECD Countries. Economic Modelling, 28(4), 1455-1464.
• Cooper, R. N. (2001). Is the US Current Account Deficit Sustainable? Will it be Sustained?. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2001(1), 217-226.
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431.
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
• Dornbusch, R., & F. Fischer (1990). Macroeconomics, McGraw-Hill, International Editions.
• Edison, H. J. (2003). Do Indicators of Financial Crises Work? An Evaluation of an Early Warning System. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 8(1), 11-53.
• Edwards, S. (2000). Capital Flows and Economic Performance: Are Emerging Economies Different?. Universidad Torcuato di Tella, Centro de Investigación en Finanzas.
• Edwards, S. (2005). Is the US Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And if not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely to be? (No. w11541). National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Freund, C. L. (2000). Current Account Adjustment in Industrialized Countries, International Finance Discussion Paper No. 692 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System).
• Ghosh, A. R., & Ostry, J. D. (1995). The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach. The World Bank Economic Review, 9(2), 305-333.
• Gocer, I. (2013). Reasons, Financing Quality and Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkey: An Econometric Analysis. Eskisehir Osmangazi University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 8(1), 213-242.
• Gocer, I., & Mercan, M. (2011). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Cari Açığın Sürdürülebilirliği: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 48(562), 33-52.
• Greenidge, K., Holder, C., & Moore, A. (2011). Current Account Deficit Sustainability: The Case of Barbados. Applied Economics, 43(8), 973-984.
• Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
• Hakkio, C. S., & Rush, M. (1991). Is the Budget Deficit “too large?”. Economic inquiry, 29(3), 429-445.
• Hansen, B. E. (1992). Efficient Estimation and Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in the Presence of Deterministic Trends. Journal of Econometrics, 53(1-3), 87-121.
• Herrmann, S., & Jochem, A. (2005). Determinants of Current Account Developments in the Central and East European EU Member States-Consequences for the Enlargement of the Euro Area.
• Holmes, M. J., Panagiotidis, T., & Sharma, A. (2011). The Sustainability of India's Current Account. Applied Economics, 43(2), 219-229.
• Husted, S. (1992). The Emerging US Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 159-166.
• Insel, A., & Kayikci, F. (2012). Evaluation of Sustainability of Current Account Deficits in Turkey. Modern Economy, 3(01), 43.
• Kalyoncu, H. (2005). Sustainability of Current Account for Turkey: Intertemporal Solvency approach.
• Karunaratne, N. D. (2010). The Sustainability of Australia's Current Account Deficits—A Reappraisal after the Global Financial Crisis. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(1), 81-97.
• Lumsdaine, R. L., & Papell, D. H. (1997). Multiple Trend Breaks and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212-218.
• MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601-618.
• Makrydakis, S. (1999). Consumption-Smoothing and the Excessiveness of Greece's Current Account Deficits. Empirical Economics, 24(2), 183-209.
• Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., & Razin, A. (1996). Current Account Sustainability. International Finance Section, Princeton University.
• Ng, S., & Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power. Econometrica, 69(6), 1519-1554.
• Ongan, S. (2008). The Sustainability of Current Account Deficits and Tourism Receipts in Turkey. The International Trade Journal, 22(1), 39-62.
• Ostry, M. J. D. (1997). Current Account Imbalances in ASEAN Countries: Are They a Problem?. International Monetary Fund.
• Ozer, M., & Coskun, I. O. (2011). Sustainability of Turkish Current Account Deficit in the Post-crisis Period. Nibes Transactions, 5(2), 67-82.
• Peker, O. (2009). Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Nedenlerinin Ekonometrik Analizi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 23(3), 221-237.
• Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. Quintos, C. E. (1995). Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(4), 409-417.
• Roubini, N. (2006). Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles. International Finance, 9(1), 87-107.
• Sahbaz, A. (2011). Cari İşlem Açıklarının Sürdürülebilirliği: 2001-2011 Türkiye Örneği. 36294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
• Selcuk, F. (1997). Consumption Smoothing and Current Account: Turkish Experience, 1987-1995. METU Studies in Development, 24, 519-530.
• Takeuchi, F. (2010). US External Debt Sustainability Revisited: Bayesian Analysis of Extended Markov Switching Unit Root Test. Japan and the World Economy, 22(2), 98-106.
• Turan, Z., Barak, D., Berkman, A. N., & Nakiboglu, A. (2016). Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkey (1989–2014). International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(2), 807-812.
• Turk, A. ve Sahin, S. (2018). Türkiye’de Cari Açık Sorunu ve Çözmeye Yönelik Bir Model Örneği. Atlas International Referred Journal on Social Sciences, 4(8), 149 –163.
• Yamak, R, Korkmaz A. (2007). The Turkish Current Account Deficit Sustainable? Econometric Approach. Banks Association of Turkey Bankers Mag., 60: 17-32.
• Yildiz, S. (2020). Türkiye’de Cari İşlemler Açığının Sürdürülebilirliği. Journal of Humanities and Tourism Research, 10(2), 289-304.
• Yucel, A. G. F., & Yanar, A. G. R. (2005). Türkiye’de Cari İşlem Açıkları Sürdürülebilir mi? Zaman Serileri Perspektifinden Bir Bakış. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 14(2), 483-492.
• Zanghieri, P. (2004). Current Account Dynamics in new EU Members: Sustainability and Policy Issues. Available at SSRN 871453.
• Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25-44.