Atmosferik Salınımlar için Karşılaştırmalı Analiz

Yıl 2023, , 317 - 331, 28.07.2023

Mine Tülin Zateroğlu

https://doi.org/10.21605/cukurovaumfd.1333702

Öz

Son yıllarda, atmosferik salınımlar üzerine yapılan araştırmalar, bu modellerin iklim değişkenleri üzerinde etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu makale, atmosferik salınımların klimatolojik unsurlarla karşılaştırmalı istatistiksel analizini incelemektedir. Antalya'daki meteoroloji istasyonunun gözlemlenen değerlerinden elde edilen iklim verilerinin analizine dayanarak, meteorolojik değişkenler gibi atmosferik unsurların Kuzey Atlantik Salınımı, Arktik Salınımı, Antarktika Salınımı ve Pasifik-Kuzey Amerika modeli gibi atmosferik salınımlarla ilişkili olduğuna işaret edilmiştir. Spearman's rho ve Kendall's tau istatistikleri, atmosferik değişkenler ve atmosferik salınımlar arasındaki ilişkileri istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olacak biçimde ortaya çıkarmak için kullanılmıştır. İlişkilerin yönü ve gücü yorumlanırken her iki katsayı karşılaştırılmıştır. Spearman's rho katsayılarının genel olarak daha uygun değerler verdiği görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Atmosferik salınım, Meteorolojik değişkenler, Spearman’s rho, Kendall’s tau

Comparative Analysis for Atmospheric Oscillations

Öz

In recent decades, studies on atmospheric circulations indicate that those patterns have influences on meteorological variables. This paper investigates the comparative statistical analysis of atmospheric oscillations with climatological elements. Based on analysis of the climate data obtained from observed values of meteorological station in Antalya, it was pointed that atmospheric elements such as meteorological variables were associated with atmospheric oscillations such as North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation and Pacific-North American pattern. Spearman’s rho and Kendall’s tau statistics were employed to reveal the relations between atmospheric variables and atmospheric oscillations as statistically significant. Both coefficients were compared in interpreting the direction and strength of the relationships. It was seen that Spearman’s rho coefficients presented more suitable values generally.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Atmospheric oscillation, Meteorological variables, Spearman’s rho, Kendall’s tau

Kaynakça

• 1. Keskiner, A.D., 2022. Aydeniz Yöntemiyle Şanlıurfa İlinin Meteorolojik Kuraklık Riski Altındaki Alanlarının Belirlenmesi. Harran Üniversitesi Mühendislik Dergisi, 7(3), 139-151.
• 2. Bağdatlı, M.C., İstanbulluoğlu, A., Altürk, B., Arslan, C., 2014. Uzun Yıllık Sıcaklık Verilerindeki Değişim Trendinin Tarımsal Kuraklık Açısından Değerlendirilmesi: Çorlu Örneği. Düzce Üniversitesi Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 2(1), 100-107.
• 3. Oztekin, M.E., Antmen, Z.F., Onat, B., 2021. Monitoring and Yield Estimation of Soybean Using Satellite Data in North Yüreğir Region, Adana, Turkey. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 30(06A), 6602-6608.
• 4. Oztekin, M.E., Dingil, M., 2022. Determination of Corn Planting Areas and Yield Forecasting Using Landsat Images. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 31(04), 4420-4426.
• 5. Bağdatlı, M. C., Ballı, Y., 2020. The Analysis of Soil Temperatures in Different Depths using Spearman’s Rho and Mann-Kendall Correlation Tests: The Case Study of Nigde Center in Turkey. International Journal of Engineering Technologies and Management Research (IJETMR), 7(5), 38-55.
• 6. Santos, J., Corte-Real, J., Leite, S., 2007a. Atmospheric Large-Scale Dynamics During The 2004–2005 Winter Drought in Portugal. Int J Climatol, 27, 571-586.
• 7. Andrade, C., Santos, J. A., Pinto, J.G., Corte-Real, J., 2011. Large-Scale Atmospheric Dynamics of the Wet Winter 2009-2010 and Its Impact on Hydrology in Portugal. Climate Research, 46(1), 29-41.
• 8. Hatzaki, M., Flocas, H. A., Giannakopoulos, C., Maheras, P., 2009. The Impact of the Eastern Mediterranean Teleconnection Pattern on the Mediterranean Climate. Journal of Climate, 22(4), 977-992.
• 9. Türkes, M., Erlat, E., 2003. Precipitation Changes and Variability in Turkey Linked To The North Atlantic Oscillation During The Period 1930-2000. International Journal of Climatology, 23, 1771-1796.
• 10. Türkeş, M., Erlat, E., 2008. Influence of The Arctic Oscillation on the Variability of Winter Mean Temperatures in Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 92(1-2), 75-85.
• 11. Santos, J., Corte-Real, J., Ulbrich, U., Palutikof, J., 2007b. European Winter Precipitation Extremes and Surface Large-Scale Circulation: A Coupled Model and Its Scenarios. Theor Appl Climatol, 87,85-102.
• 12. Andrade, C., Santos, J.A., Pinto, J.G., Corte-Real, J., Leite, S., 2010. The Empirical Forcing Function as a Tool for the Diagnosis of Large-Scale Atmospheric Anomalies. Ann Geophys, 28, 75-87.
• 13. Xoplaki, E., Gonzalez-Rouco, F.J., Luterbacher, J., Wanner, H., 2004. Wet season Mediterranean Precipitation Variability: Influence of Large-Scale Dynamics. Clim Dyn, 23, 63-78.
• 14. Zorita, E., Kharin, V., von Storch, H., 1992. The Atmospheric Circulation and Sea Surface Temperature in the North Atlantic Area in Winter: Their Interaction and Relevance for Iberian Precipitation. J Clim, 5, 1097–1108.
• 15. Gong, D., Wang, S., Zhu, J., 2004. Arctic Oscillation Influence on Daily Temperature Variance in Winter over China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 49(6), 637-642.
• 16. Huang, J.B., Wang, S.W., Gong, D.Y., Zhou, T.J., Wen, X.Y., Zhang, Z.Y., Zhu, J.H., 2010. Atmospheric Oscillations over the Last Millennium. Chinese Sci Bull, 55, 2469−2472.
• 17. Carvalho, L.M.V., Jones, C., Ambrizzi, T., 2005. Opposite Phases of the Antarctic Oscillation and Relationships with Intraseasonal to Interannual Activity in the Tropics During the Austral Summer. Journal of Climate, 18, 702-718.
• 18. Cardil, A., Rodrigues, M., Tapia, M. Barbero, R., Ramirez, J., Stoof, C.R., Silva, C.A., Mohan, M, de-Miguel, S., 2023. Climate teleconnections Modulate Global Burned Area. Nat Commun 14, 427.
• 19. Schurer, A.P., Hegerl, G.C., Goosse, H., Bollasina, M.A., England, M.H., Smith, D.M., Tett, S.F.B., 2023. Role of Multi-decadal Variability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere Climate. Environ. Res. Lett. 18, 044046.
• 20. Tang, X., Li, J., Zhang, Y., Li, Y., Zhao, S., 2023. Synergistic Effect of El Nino and Negative Phase of North Atlantic Oscillation on Winter Precipitation in the Southeastern United States. Journal of Climate, 36(6), 1767-1791.
• 21. Zhou, F., Liu, M.-H., Shi, J., Zhao, M.-Y., 2023. Long-Lasting Impact of Winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Barents-Kara Sea Ice Anomaly in Recent Decades. Environ. Res. Lett. 18, 044015.
• 22. Kim, H.J., An, S.I., Park, J.H., Sung, M.K., Kim, D., Choi, Y., Kim, J.S., 2023. North Atlantic Oscillation Impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Shaped by the Mean State. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6(25).
• 23. Zhang, H., Zhao, C., Xia, Y., Yang, Y., 2023. North Atlantic Oscillation–Associated Variation in Cloud Phase and Cloud Radiative Forcing over the Greenland Ice Sheet. Journal of Climate, 36(10), 3203-3215.
• 24. Ding, R., Nnamchi, H.C., Yu, J.-Y., Li, T., Sun, C., Li, J., Tseng, Y.-H., Li, X., Xie, F., Feng, J., Ji, K., Li, X., 2023. North Atlantic Oscillation Controls Multidecadal Changes in The North Tropical Atlantic−Pacific Connection. Nature Communications, 14(862).
• 25. Shahri, S.M.A., Soltani, S., Esfahani, M.T., Pourmanafi S., Isfahani, P.M., 2023. Effects of Teleconnection Indices On Net Primary Production (NPP) in Bioclimatic Zones of Iran. Arab J Geosci 16, 57.
• 26. Zhang, C., Jia, X., Duan, A., Hu, D., 2023. Interdecadal Changes in the Dominant Modes of Spring Snow Cover over The Tibetan Plateau around The Early 1990s, Journal of Climate, 36(11), 3765-3780.
• 27. Katsura, S., Sprintall, J., Kido, S., Tanimoto, Y., Nonaka, M., 2023. Classification of Interannual Surface Layer Salinity Variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(8).
• 28. Mu, B., Jiang, X., Yuan, S., Cui, Y., Qin, B., 2023. NAO Seasonal Forecast using a Multivariate Air–Sea Coupled Deep Learning Model Combined with Causal Discovery. Atmosphere, 14, 792.
• 29. Liang, S., Liu, Y., Ding, Y., 2023. Effects of Wave-Mean Flow Interaction on The Multi-Time-Scale Variability of the AO Indices: A Case Study of Winters 2007/08 and 2009/10. Atmosphere, 14, 524.
• 30. Ge, Y., Luo, D., 2023. Impacts of The Different Types of El Niño and PDO on The Winter Sub-Seasonal North American Zonal Temperature Dipole via The Variability of Positive PNA Events. Climate Dynamics, 60, 1397–1413.
• 31. Ma, S., Zhu, C., 2023. Subseasonal Swing of Cold and Warm Extremes Between Eurasia and North America in Winter of 2020/21: Initiation and Physical Process. Environ. Res. Lett. 18, 014023.
• 32. Bachmann, N., 2007. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Termpaper Writing for MSc Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics. ETH Zurich.
• 33. Gong, D., Wang, S., 1998. Antarctic oscillation: Concept and Applications. Chin.Sci.Bull., 43, 734–738.
• 34. Wallace, J.M., Gutzler, D.S., 1981. Teleconnections in The Geopotential Height Field During The Northern Hemisphere Winter. Mon Weather Rev, 109, 784–812.
• 35. Thompson, D.W.J., Wallace, J.M., 1998. The Arctic Oscillation Signature in The Wintertime Geopotential Height and Temperature Fields. Geophys Res Lett, 25, 1297-1300.
• 36. Boyer, M., Aliaga, D., Pernov, J.B., Angot, H., Quéléver, L.L.J., Dada, L., Heutte, B., Dall’Osto, M., Beddows, D.C.S., Brasseur, Z., Beck, I., Bucci, S., Duetsch, M., Stohl, A., Laurila, T., Asmi, E., Massling, A., Thomas, D.C., Nøjgaard, J.K., Chan, T., Sharma, S., Tunved, P., Krejci, R., Hansson, H.C., Bianchi, F., Lehtipalo, K., Wiedensohler, A., Weinhold, K., Kulmala, M., Petäjä, T., Sipilä, M., Schmale, J., Jokinen, T., 2023. A Full Year of Aerosol Size Distribution Data from the Central Arctic under an Extreme Positive Arctic Oscillation: Insights from the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Expedition. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 389-415.
• 37. Yang, H., Ma, Y., Gong, Z., Feng, G., 2023. The Intraseasonal Surface Air Temperature Reversal and Its Predictability Analysis in 2021/2022 Winter over China. International Journal of Climatology, 1-17.
• 38. Singh, S., Goyal, M.K., Jha, S., 2023. Role of Large-Scale Climate Oscillations in Precipitation Extremes Associated With Atmospheric Rivers: Nonstationary Framework. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 68(3), 395-411.
• 39. Bertoldi, G., Bozzoli, M., Crespi, A., Matiu, M., Giovannini, L., Zardi, D., Majone, B., 2023. Diverging Snowfall Trends Across Months and Elevation in The Northeastern Italian Alps. International Journal of Climatology, 43(6), 2794-2819.
• 40. Ren, Y., Zhang, F., Zhao, C., Wang, D., Li, J., Zhang, J., Cheng, Z., 2023. Spatiotemporal Changes of Extreme Climate Indices and Their Infuence and Response Factors in a Typical Cold River Basin in Northeast China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 152, 1285–1309.
• 41. Sukhonos, O., Vyshkvarkova, E., 2023. Connection of Compound Extremes of Air Temperature and Precipitation with Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Eastern Europe. Climate, 11, 98.
• 42. Jia, L., Delworth, T.L., Yang, X., Cooke, W., Johnson, N.C., McHugh, C., Lu, F., 2023.Seasonal Prediction of North American Wintertime Cold Extremes in The GFDL SPEAR Forecast System. Clim Dyn.
• 43. Coburn, J., Pryor, S.C., 2023. Evolution of the Internal Climate Modes under Future Warming. Journal of Climate, 36(2), 511-529.
• 44. Ionita M., 2023. The Arctic Winter Seasons 2016 and 2017: Climatological Context and Analysis. Climate, 11(1), 19.
• 45. Yu, B., Lin, H., Mo, R., Li, G., 2023. A Physical Analysis of Summertime North American Heatwaves. Clim Dyn.
• 46. Mandodi, M.T., Pattanaik, D.R., 2023. The Dependence of Indian Winter Precipitation Extreme on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Natural Hazards (2023), 117, 1869-1885.
• 47. Santolaria-Otín, M., García-Serrano, J., Menegoz, M., Bech, J., 2020. On the Observed Connection Between Arctic Sea Ice and Eurasian Snow in Relation to the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 124010.
• 48. Luo, B., Luo, D., Wu, L., Zhong, L., Simmonds, I., 2017. Atmospheric Circulation Patterns which Promote Winter Arctic Sea Ice Decline. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 054017.
• 49. Zhang, W., Jiang, F., 2023. Subseasonal Variation in the Winter ENSO-NAO Relationship and the Modulation of Tropical North Atlantic SST Variability. Climate, 11, 47.
• 50. Abid, M.A., Kucharski, F., Molteni, F., Almazroui, M., 2023. Predictability of Indian Ocean Precipitation and Its North Atlantic Teleconnections During Early Winter. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6(17).
• 51. Fu, S., Zhang, H., Zhong, Q., Chen, Q., Liu, A., Yang, J., Pang, J., 2023. Spatiotemporal Variations of Precipitation Concentration Influenced by Large-Scale Climatic Factors and Potential Links to Flood-Drought Events Across China 1958-2019. Atmospheric Research, 282, 106507.
• 52. Zhang, J., Sheng, Z., Ma, Y., He, Y., Zuo, X., He, M., 2021. Analysis of Positive Arctic Oscillation Index Event and Its Influence in the Winter and Spring of 2019/2020. Front. Earth Sci., 8, 580601.
• 53. Zateroglu, M.T., 2021a. Assessment of the Effects of Air Pollution Parameters on Sunshine Duration in Six Cities in Turkey. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 30(02A), 2251-2269.
• 54. Zateroglu, M.T., 2021b. The Role of Climate Factors on Air Pollutants (PM10 and SO2). Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 30(11), 12029-12036.
• 55. Zateroglu, M.T., 2021c. Evaluating the Sunshine Duration Characteristics in Association with Other Climate Variables. European Journal of Science and Technology, Special Issue 29, 200-207.
• 56. Zateroglu, M.T., 2021d. Statistical Models For Sunshine Duration Related to Precipitation and Relative Humidity. European Journal of Science and Technology, Special Issue 29, 208-213.
• 57. Zateroglu, M.T., 2021e. The Effect of Cloud Amount and Changes in Sunshine Duration. International Journal of Engineering Science and Computing (IJESC), 11(8), 28598-28601.
• 58. Zateroglu, M.T., 2021f. A Statistical Analysis of Sunshine Duration in Diyarbakir, Turkey. International Journal of Research in Engineering and Science (IJRES), 9(8), 59-63.
• 59. Zateroglu, M.T., 2023a. The Influence of Climatological Variables on Particulate Matter and Sulphur Dioxide. Çukurova Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Dergisi, 38(1), 13-24.
• 60. Zateroglu, M.T., 2023b. Estimation of Cloudiness Data Based on Multiple Linear Regression Model. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 13(1), 33-41.
• 61. Zateroglu, M.T., 2023c. Modeling of Air Pollution., International Research in Engineering Sciences, Editor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Alper Bideci, Platanus Publishing March 2023, ISBN: 978-625-6971-50-9. Chapter 21, ,436-447.
• 62. Zateroglu, M.T., 2023d. Computation Methods of Air Quality Index. Current Research in Engineering, Editors: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Selahattin Bardak, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ümit Ayata, Gece Publishing, March 2023, ISBN: 978-625-430-720-1. Chapter 12, 243-259.
• 63. Zateroglu, M.T., 2022. Modelling The Air Quality Index For Bolu, Turkey. Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, 17(1), 119-130.
• 64. Criado-Aldeanueva, F., Soto-Navarro, F.J., 2013. The Mediterranean Oscillation Teleconnection Index: Station-Based versus Principal Component Paradigms. Advances in Meteorology, Article ID 738501.
• 65. Kutiel, H., Benaroch, Y., 2002a. North Sea-Caspian Pattern (NCP)-An Upper Level Atmospheric Teleconnection Affecting The Eastern Mediterranean: Identification and Definition. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 71(1), 17-28.
• 66. Kutiel, H., Maheras, P., Türkeş, M., Paz, S., 2002b. North Sea-Caspian Pattern (NCP) an Upper Level Atmospheric Teleconnection Affecting the Eastern Mediterranean: Implications on the Regional Climate. Theor Appl Climatol, 72(3-4):173-192.
• 67. Maheras, P., Kutiel, H., 1999. Spatial and Temporal Variations in the Temperature Regime in the Mediterrenean and Their Relationship with Circulation During the Last Century. Int J Climatol, 19, 745-764.
• 68. Kutiel, H., Maheras, P., Guika, S., 1996. Circulation Indices over the Mediterranean and Europe and Their Relationship with Rainfall Conditions Across the Mediterranean. Theor Appl Climatol, 54, 125-138.
• 69. Trigo, R.M., Osborn, T.J., Corte-Real, J., 2002. The North Atlantic Oscillation Influence on Europe: Climate Impacts and Associated Physical Mechanisms. Climate Research, 20, 9-17.
• 70. Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Beguería, S., LópezMoreno, J.I., El Kenawy, A.M., Angulo, M., 2009. Daily Atmospheric Circulation Events and Extreme Precipitation Risk in Northeast Spain: The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation, Western Mediterranean Oscillation and Mediterranean Oscillation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, 1-19.
• 71. Li, W., Yan, H., 2023. The Influences of the Arctic Oscillation on the Frequency of Winter Extreme Cold Days in Yunnan of China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 151, 1615–1622.
• 72. Dawadi, B., Sharma, S., Reynard, E., Shahi, K., 2023. Climatology, Variability, and Trend of the Winter Precipitation over Nepal. Earth Systems and Environment, 7, 381–391.
• 73. Wang, W., Yang, S., Li, Q., Zhang, T., Jiang, X., 2023. Alternate Modulations of ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on Winter Extreme Cold Events in China. Atmospheric Research, 282, 106532.
• 74. Chen, Z., Gan, B., Huang, F., Li, J., Wu, L., Fan, L., Diao, Y., 2023. The influence of Pacific-North American Teleconnection on the North Pacific SST Anomalies in Wintertime under the Global Warming. Climate Dynamics, 60, 1481-1494.
• 75. Rehman, S.U., Usmani, B.A., Simmonds, I., 2023. The Separate Roles Played by the Two Geographical Poles of the NAO in Influencing Winter Precipitation over Spain. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 245, 106054.
• 76. Baltacı, H., Akkoyunlu, B. O., Tayanc, M., 2018. Relationships Between Teleconnection Patterns and Turkish Climatic Extremes. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 134, 1365-1386.
• 77. Tatlı, H., Dalfes, N., Mentes, S., 2005. Surface Air Temperature Variability over Turkey and Its Connection to Large-Scale Upper Air Circulation via Multivariate Techniques. Int J Climatol, 25, 331-350.
• 78. Türkeş, M., Erlat, E., 2005. Climatological Responses of Winter Precipitation in Turkey to Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the Period 1930-2001. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 81, 45-69.
• 79. Türkeş, M., Erlat, E., 2006. Influences of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Precipitation Variability and Changes in Turkey. Nuovo Cimento Della Societa Italiana Di Fisica C-Geophysics and Space Physics, 29, 117-135.
• 80. Türkeş, M., Erlat, E., 2009. Winter Mean Temperature Variability in Turkey Associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Meteorol Atmos Phys, 105, 211-225.
• 81. Demirtaş, M., 2023. The Cold Snaps of January 2022 in the Euro-Mediterranean Region in a Warming Climate: In Association with Atmospheric Blocking and the Positive North Atlantic Oscillation. Pure Appl. Geophys.
• 82. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) (2023), National Weather Service, NOAA, http://www. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
• 83. Bağdatlı, M.C., Can, E., 2019. Analysis of Precipitation Datas by Mann Kendall and Sperman's Rho Rank Correlation Statistical Approaches in Nevsehir Province of Turkey. Recent Research in Science and Technology Journal, (11), 24-31.
• 84. Bağdatlı, M.C., Can, E., 2020. Temperature Changes of Niğde Province in Turkey: Trend Analysis of 50 years data. International Journal of Ecology and Development Research (IJEDR), 6(2), 62-71.
• 85. Bağdatlı, M.C., Arıkan, E.N., 2020a. Evaluation of Maximum and Total Open Surface Evaporation by using Trend Analysis Method in Nigde Province of Turkey, International Journal of Geography and Regional Planning (IJGRP), 6(1), 138-145.
• 86. Bağdatlı, M.C., Arslan, O., Ballı, Y., Uğuz, A. N., 2022. GIS Modelling and Evaluation of Climate Variability in Kızılırmak Watershed of Turkey. International Journal of Engineering Technologies and Management Research (IJETMR), 9(5), 48-54.
• 87. Bağdatlı, M.C., Arıkan, E.N., 2020b. Evaluation of Monthly Maximum, Minimum and Average Temperature Changes Observed for Many Years in Nevsehir Province of Turkey. World Research Journal of Agricultural Science (WRJAS), 7(2), 209-220.
• 88. Dong, Y., Zhai, J., Zhao, Y., Liu, Z., Yang, Q., Jiang, S., Lv, Z., Yan, D., Liu, K., Ding, Z., 2023. Impacts of Large-Scale Circulation Patterns on the Temperature Extremes in the Cold Regions of China With Global Warming. Front. Earth Sci. 11, 1120800.