Monte Carlo Simülasyonu ile Yenidoğan Transportunda Fizyolojik Stabilite Risk Skor Değişiminin Tahminlemesi

Öz

Yenidoğan yoğun bakım hastalarının transportu yüksek risk ve mortaliteye sahiptir. Bu nedenle transport süreci dikkatle ele alınmalı ve değerlendirilmelidir. Bu sürecin performansının değerlendirildiği transport skorlama sistemleri bulunmaktadır. Bunlardan hastanın fizyolojik stabilite risk skoru değişimini ölçen Transport Risk Index of Physiologic Stability (TRIPS) skorlaması yaygın olarak kullanılmaktadır. TRIPS skor değeri transportun ilk 15 dakika ve sonunda olmak üzere en az iki defa ölçülür. Bu çalışmada 2011-2022 yılları arasında 1117 sayıda hastanın teslim alındığında ilk TRIPS skoru ve teslim edilmeden hemen önce ölçülen TRIPS skor değerleri ile bebeklerin kayıtlı ağırlık parametre değeri alınmıştır. Retrospektif olarak yapılan bu çalışmada hastanın ağırlığına bağlı olarak ölçülen iki TRIPS skor değeri arasındaki fark, Monte Carlo simülasyon modeli ile tahminlenmiştir. Her hasta ağırlık grubu için ayrı ayrı ortalama TRIPS skor farkı taminlenerek, farklı hasta gruplarının transport süreci birbirleri ile kıyaslanarak gruplar arası farklar tespit edilmiş ve süreç analiz edilmiştir. Bu analiz sürecin iyileştirilmesi, planlanması ve kararların alınmasına katkı sağlayacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Monte Carlo simülasyonu
• Tahminleme
• Transport
• Skorlama

Estimation of Physiological Stability Risk Score Change in Transport of Newborn Infants by Monte Carlo Simulation

Öz

Transportation of neonatal intensive care unit patients has high risk and mortality. Therefore, the transport process should be handled and evaluated carefully. There are transport scoring systems that evaluate the performance of this process. Among these, Transport Risk Index of Physiologic Stability (TRIPS) scoring, which measures the change in the patient's physiologic stability risk score, is widely used. The TRIPS score value is measured at least twice, in the first 15 minutes and at the end of transport. In this study, the initial TRIPS score and TRIPS score values measured just before delivery and the registered weight parameter value of the infants were obtained from 1117 patients between 2011 and 2022. In this retrospective study, the difference between the two TRIPS score values measured depending on the patient's weight was estimated with the Monte Carlo simulation model. By determining the average TRIPS score difference for each patient weight group separately, the transport process of different patient groups was compared with each other, the differences between the groups were determined and the process was analyzed. This analysis will contribute to the improvement of the process, planning and decision making.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Monte Carlo simulation
• Forecasting
• Transport
• Scoring

Kaynakça

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