Rüzgar Hızı Tahminine Yeni Bir Bakış; Prophet Modeli ve LSTM Modellerinin Analizi

Öz

Son zamanlarda, rüzgar hızı (WS) tahmini temiz enerji araştırmacılarının ilgisini çekmiştir. WS doğası gereği kontrol edilemez olduğundan, tüketim ve rüzgar enerjisi üretimi arasında dengesizliklere neden olabilir. Bu nedenle, yüksek doğrulukta WS tahmini şarttır. Bu çalışmada, Nevşehir Meteoroloji Müdürlüğü rüzgar ölçüm istasyonundan elde edilen geçmiş WS değerlerine dayanarak gelecekteki eğilimleri tahmin etmek için LSTM ve Prophet modelleri kullanılmıştır. Model performansları hata metrikleri kullanılarak karşılaştırılmıştır. Prophet modeli 0,61'lik bir R² değeri elde ederken, LSTM modeli 0,734'lük bir R² değeriyle daha iyi performans göstermiş ve LSTM modelinin tahminlerinin gerçek WS verilerine daha yakın olduğunu göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• LSTM
• Prophet modeli
• Rüzgar hızı tahmini
• Yenilenebilir enerji

A New Insight at Wind Speed Prediction; Analysis of Prophet Model and LSTM Models

Öz

Recently, wind speed (WS) prediction has attracted the interest of clean energy researchers. As WS is inherently uncontrollable, it can cause imbalances between consumption and wind energy production. Therefore, high-accuracy WS estimation is essential. In this study, the LSTM and Prophet models were used to predict future trends based on past WS values obtained from the Nevşehir Meteorology Directorate wind measurement station. Model performances were compared using error metrics. The Prophet model achieved an R² value of 0.61, while the LSTM model outperformed it with an R² of 0.734, indicating that the LSTM model's forecasts correspond more closely to actual WS data.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• LSTM
• Prophet model
• Renewable energy
• Wind speed prediction

Kaynakça

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