Wind Speed Forecasting using Time Series Analysis Methods

Öz

As a natural, non-consumable, clean and sustainable energy resource, wind energy is becoming crucial throughout the world. Forecasting wind speed is noteworthy to design and install wind power stations. In this study, several time series analysis methods for wind energy were compared considering long-termmonthly-average wind speed data between the years of 1960 and 2014 at nine meteorological stations throughout five geographical areas in Turkey. The low performance measure values seen in results indicate that the methods used in this study can be forecast for wind speed. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Wind energy,Wind speed forecasting,Time series analysis methods,Statistical performance measures

Zaman Serisi Analiz Metotları Kullanılarak Rüzgâr Hızının Tahmin Edilmesi

Öz

Doğal, tükenmeyen, temiz ve sürdürülebilir bir enerji kaynağı olduğundan rüzgâr enerjisi dünyada önem kazanmaktadır. Rüzgâr enerjisi istasyonlarının tasarlanması ve kurulması için rüzgâr hızı tahmini önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’deki beş farklı coğrafi bölge ve dokuz meteorolojik istasyondan 1960 ve 2014 yılları arasındaki uzun dönemli aylık ortalama rüzgâr hızı verileri dikkate alınarak rüzgâr enerjisi için farklı zaman serisi analizi metotları karşılaştırılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda elde edilen düşük performans ölçüm değerleri, rüzgâr hızı tahminleri için bu çalışmada ele alınan metotların kullanılabileceğini göstermektedir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Rüzgâr enerjisi,Rüzgâr hızı tahmini,Zaman serisi analizi metotları,İstatistiksel performans ölçümleri

Kaynakça

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