Wind Speed Forecasting using Time Series Analysis Methods

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 32 Sayı: 2, 161 - 172, 15.06.2017

Serap Akcan

https://doi.org/10.21605/cukurovaummfd.358419

Öz

As a natural, non-consumable, clean and sustainable energy resource, wind energy is becoming crucial
throughout the world. Forecasting wind speed is noteworthy to design and install wind power stations. In
this study, several time series analysis methods for wind energy were compared considering long-termmonthly-average
wind speed data between the years of 1960 and 2014 at nine meteorological stations
throughout five geographical areas in Turkey. The low performance measure values seen in results
indicate that the methods used in this study can be forecast for wind speed. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Wind energy, Wind speed forecasting, Time series analysis methods, Statistical performance measures

Zaman Serisi Analiz Metotları Kullanılarak Rüzgâr Hızının Tahmin Edilmesi

Öz

Doğal, tükenmeyen, temiz ve sürdürülebilir bir enerji kaynağı olduğundan rüzgâr enerjisi dünyada önem
kazanmaktadır. Rüzgâr enerjisi istasyonlarının tasarlanması ve kurulması için rüzgâr hızı tahmini
önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’deki beş farklı coğrafi bölge ve dokuz meteorolojik istasyondan 1960
ve 2014 yılları arasındaki uzun dönemli aylık ortalama rüzgâr hızı verileri dikkate alınarak rüzgâr enerjisi
için farklı zaman serisi analizi metotları karşılaştırılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda elde edilen düşük
performans ölçüm değerleri, rüzgâr hızı tahminleri için bu çalışmada ele alınan metotların
kullanılabileceğini göstermektedir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Rüzgâr enerjisi, Rüzgâr hızı tahmini, Zaman serisi analizi metotları, İstatistiksel performans ölçümleri

Kaynakça

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