Kamu Gelir-Harcama Bağlantısı: Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye ekonomisi için kamu gelirleri ile harcamaları arasındaki asimetrik ilişkiyi test etmektir. Çalışma 2006:01- 2019:03 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Bu çalışmada değişkenler arasındaki ilişki literatürün aksine asimetrik olarak ele alınmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisi, Hatemi-J (2012) tarafından geliştirilen Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi ile test edilmiştir. Asimetrik nedensellik yaklaşımı bir seriyi pozitif ve negatif şoklara ayırarak, serideki doğrusal olmayan etkileri yakalamaktadır. Çalışmanın veri seti üçer aylık olmak üzere toplam harcamalar, toplam gelir ve vergi gelirlerini kapsamaktadır. Veri seti Türkiye ekonomisinin 2006:01- 2019:03 dönemini içermektedir. Veri kısıtından dolayı veri seti 2006:01 döneminden başlamıştır. Çalışmanın ampirik bulguları, toplam harcamalar ve toplam gelir arasında Mali Senkronizasyon Hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna karşın, toplam harcamalar ve vergi gelirleri arasında Harcama-Vergi Hipotezi geçerlidir. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre, toplam gelir ve kamu harcamaları arasında Türkiye ekonomisinde simetrik ilişki mevcuttur. Ayrıca, vergi gelirleri ve kamu harcamaları arasında da karşılıklı olmak üzere çift yönlü simetrik bir ilişki vardır. Ek olarak, gelirin negatif şokları ve harcamaların negatif şokları arasında asimetrik ilişkiye rastlanılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kamu Harcamaları
• Kamu Geliri
• Asimetrik Nedensellik
• Hatemi-J

The Government Revenue–Expenditure Nexus: Asymmetric Causality Test

Öz

The purpose of this study is to examine the asymmetric relationship between government revenues and expenditures for Turkish economy. In this study, the data cover the period of 2006Q1-2019Q3. In this study, unliker the literature, the relationship between variables is investigated asymmetrically. The asymmetric causality relationships were tested by using Asymmetric Causality Test developed by Hatemi-J (2012). The asymmetric causality approach divides the series into two as positive shocks and negative shocks and captures nonlinear effects in the series. The data of this study contain quarterly observations of the total expenditures, total revenues and tax revenues based on sub-items over the 2006: Q1-2019: Q3 time period for the Turkish economy. In this study, because of data constraint, the data started in 2006: Q1.The empirical findings of this study indicate that the Fiscal Synchronization Hypothesis is valid for the relationships between total expenditures and total revenues. However, when the relationship between total expenditures and tax revenues is evaluated, it is seen that the Spend-andTax Hypothesis is valid. According to the findings, there is bidirectional causality between total revenues and government expenditures in Turkish economy, symmetrically. There is a symmetric bidirectional causality between tax revenues and government expenditures. Also, negative cumulative total revenues cause the negative cumulative expenditures, asymmetrically.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Government Expenditures
• Government Revenues
• Asymmetric Causality
• Hatemi J

Kaynakça

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