Kamu Gelir-Harcama Bağlantısı: Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 170 - 178, 30.11.2020

Havvanur Feyza Kaya , Şule Nazlı Arslan

https://doi.org/10.30613/curesosc.758675

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye ekonomisi için kamu gelirleri ile
harcamaları arasındaki asimetrik ilişkiyi test etmektir. Çalışma 2006:01-
2019:03 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Bu çalışmada değişkenler arasındaki
ilişki literatürün aksine asimetrik olarak ele alınmıştır. Değişkenler
arasındaki asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisi, Hatemi-J (2012) tarafından
geliştirilen Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi ile test edilmiştir. Asimetrik
nedensellik yaklaşımı bir seriyi pozitif ve negatif şoklara ayırarak,
serideki doğrusal olmayan etkileri yakalamaktadır. Çalışmanın veri seti
üçer aylık olmak üzere toplam harcamalar, toplam gelir ve vergi
gelirlerini kapsamaktadır. Veri seti Türkiye ekonomisinin 2006:01-
2019:03 dönemini içermektedir. Veri kısıtından dolayı veri seti 2006:01
döneminden başlamıştır. Çalışmanın ampirik bulguları, toplam
harcamalar ve toplam gelir arasında Mali Senkronizasyon Hipotezinin
geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna karşın, toplam harcamalar ve
vergi gelirleri arasında Harcama-Vergi Hipotezi geçerlidir. Çalışmanın
bulgularına göre, toplam gelir ve kamu harcamaları arasında Türkiye
ekonomisinde simetrik ilişki mevcuttur. Ayrıca, vergi gelirleri ve kamu
harcamaları arasında da karşılıklı olmak üzere çift yönlü simetrik bir ilişki
vardır. Ek olarak, gelirin negatif şokları ve harcamaların negatif şokları
arasında asimetrik ilişkiye rastlanılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kamu Harcamaları, Kamu Geliri, Asimetrik Nedensellik, Hatemi-J

The Government Revenue–Expenditure Nexus: Asymmetric Causality Test

Öz

The purpose of this study is to examine the asymmetric relationship
between government revenues and expenditures for Turkish economy. In
this study, the data cover the period of 2006Q1-2019Q3. In this study,
unliker the literature, the relationship between variables is investigated
asymmetrically. The asymmetric causality relationships were tested by
using Asymmetric Causality Test developed by Hatemi-J (2012). The
asymmetric causality approach divides the series into two as positive
shocks and negative shocks and captures nonlinear effects in the series.
The data of this study contain quarterly observations of the total
expenditures, total revenues and tax revenues based on sub-items over
the 2006: Q1-2019: Q3 time period for the Turkish economy. In this
study, because of data constraint, the data started in 2006: Q1.The
empirical findings of this study indicate that the Fiscal Synchronization
Hypothesis is valid for the relationships between total expenditures and
total revenues. However, when the relationship between total
expenditures and tax revenues is evaluated, it is seen that the Spend-andTax Hypothesis is valid. According to the findings, there is bidirectional
causality between total revenues and government expenditures in Turkish
economy, symmetrically. There is a symmetric bidirectional causality
between tax revenues and government expenditures. Also, negative
cumulative total revenues cause the negative cumulative expenditures,
asymmetrically.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Government Expenditures, Government Revenues, Asymmetric Causality, Hatemi J

Kaynakça

• Afonso, A., & Rault, C. (2009). Spend-and-tax: a panel data investigation for the EU. Economics Bulletin, 29, 2542–2548.
• Athanasenas, A., Katrakilidis, C., & Trachanas, E. (2014). Government spending and revenues in the Greek economy: Evidence from nonlinear cointegration. Empirica, 41, 365-376.
• Barro, R. J. (1979). On the determination of the public debt. Journal of Political Economy, 87(5), 940-71.
• Buchanan, J.M., & Wagner, R. E. (1977). Democracy in deficit: the political legacy of lord Keynes. New York.
• Chang, T., & Chiang, G. (2009). Revisiting the government revenue-expenditure nexus: Evidence from 15 OECD countries based on the panel data approach. Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 59, 165-172.
• Chang, T., & Ho, Y.H. (2002). A note on testing tax-and-spend, spend-and-tax or fiscal synchronization: The case of China. Journal of Economic Development, 27, 151-160.
• Darrat, A. F. (1998). Tax and spend, or spend and tax? An inquiry into the Turkish budgetary process. Southern Economic Journal, 64, 940-956.
• Dhanasekaran, K. (2001). Government tax revenue, expenditure and causality: The experience of India. Indian Economic Review, 36, 359-379.
• Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimates for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(266a), 427-431.
• Friedman, M. (1978). The limitations of tax limitation. Policy Review, 5, 7-14.
• Hatemi-J, A. (2003). A new method to choose optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models. Applied Economics Letter 10, 135–137.
• Hatemi-J, A. (2008). Forecasting properties of a new method to choose optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models. Applied Economics Letter, 15, 239–243.
• Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43, 447–456.
• Hong, T. J. (2009). Tax-and-spend or spend-and-tax? Empirical evidence from Malaysia. Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance, 5, 107-115.
• Koren, S., & Stiassny, A. (1998). Tax and spend, or spend and tax? An international study. Journal of Policy Modeling, 20, 163-191.
• Li, X. (2001). Government revenue, government expenditure, and temporal causality: Evidence from China. Applied Economics, 33, 485-497.
• Meltzer, A. H., & Richard, S. F. (1981). A rational theory of the size of government. Journal of Political Economy, 89, 914-27.
• Musgrave, R. (1966). Principles of budget determination. In Public Finance: Selected readings, 15-27.
• Mutascu, M. (2016). Government revenues and expenditures in the East European economies: a bootstrap panel Granger causality approach. Eastern European Economics, 54, 489-502.
• Narayan, P. K. (2005). The government revenue and government expenditure nexus: Empirical evidence from nine Asian countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 15, 1203-1216.
• Paleologou, S. M. (2013). Asymmetries in the revenue–expenditure nexus: A tale of three countries. Economic Modelling, 30, 52–60.
• Payne, J. E., Mohammadi, H., & Cak, M. (2008). Turkish budget deficit sustainability and the revenue-expenditure nexus. Applied Economics, 40, 823-830.
• Peacock, A. T., & Wiseman, J. (1979). Approaches to the analysis of government expenditure growth. Public Quarterly, 7, 3-23.
• Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrica, 75(2), 335-346. Saunoris, J. W., & Payne, J. E. (2010). Tax more or spend less? Asymmetries in the UK revenue–expenditure nexus. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32, 478-487.
• Tiwari, A. K., & Mutascu, M. (2016). The revenues-spending nexus in Romania: A TAR and MTAR approach. Economic ResearchEkonomska istraživanja, 29, 735-745.
• Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
• Obeng, S. (2015). A causality test of the revenue-expenditure nexus in Ghana. MPRA, 63735, 1-19.
• Yamak R., & Abdioğlu, Z. (2012). Ampirik bağlamda toplam ve alt kalemler bazında kamu harcamaları ve kamu gelirleri arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye örneği. H.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 30, 173-192.
• Yinusa, O. G., Aworinde, O. B., & Oseni, I. O. (2017). The revenue-expenditure nexus in Nigeria: Asymmetric cointegration approach. South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, 15, 47-61.
• Von Furstenberg, G. M., Green, R. J., & Jeong, J. H. (1986). Tax and spend, or spend and tax?. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 68, 179-188.
• Zapf, M., & Payne, J. E. (2009). Asymmetric modelling of the revenue-expenditure nexus: evidence from aggregate state and local government in the US. Applied Economics Letters, 16, 871-876.