DEMAND-SIDE PERSPECTIVE IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY OF BRIC COUNTRIES: A DEMAND DECOMPOSITION

Yıl 2022, , 641 - 661, 29.10.2022

Şahin Nas , Ebru Arıcıoğlu

https://doi.org/10.35379/cusosbil.1149159

Öz

Historically, demand has been an important dynamic for industrialization. Even so, in the industrialization policies, supply-side dynamics are considered and demand-side dynamics are ignored. However, for sustainable industrialization and growth, demand-side dynamics should be considered. In this context, the study aims to analyse how demand-side dynamics contribute to the economy and manufacturing industry. For this, demand decomposition was made in BRIC countries by using the Dutch method proposed by Kranendonk and Verbruggen (2005; 2008). The National Input-Output Tables (NIOTs) in the WIOD for the 2000-2014 period were used. According to the findings, domestic final demand is an important dynamic of the economy in BRIC countries. Similarly, in the manufacturing industry, excluding China, domestic final demand is more dominant. When compared to the total economy, foreign value added is higher in the manufacturing industry. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, domestic final demand and domestic value-added increased, while final foreign demand and foreign value-added decreased. Besides, especially in developing countries to demand to be an effective dynamic, policies that increase real income, provide demand diversity and expand the middle class should be produced.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Manufacturing Industry, Input-Output Models, Demand-side Perspective, BRICS.

BRIC ÜLKELERİ İMALAT SANAYİNDE TALEP YANLI YAKLAŞIM: BİR TALEP AYRIŞTIRMASI

Öz

Tarihsel olarak, talep sanayileşme için önemli bir dinamik olmuştur. Buna rağmen sanayileşme politikalarında arz yanlı dinamikler dikkate alınmakta ve talep yanlı dinamikler eksik kalmaktadır. Ancak sürdürülebilir sanayileşme ve büyüme için talep dinamikleri de dikkate alınmalıdır. Bu çerçevede çalışmanın amacı, talep dinamiklerinin ekonomi ve imalat sanayide nasıl bir katkı sağladığını analiz etmektir. Çalışmanın amacı kapsamında, Kranendonk ve Verbruggen (2005; 2008) tarafından önerilen Hollanda yöntemi kullanılarak BRIC ülkelerinde talep ayrıştırması yapılmıştır. Bu ülkelerin WIOD’ta yer alan 2000-2014 dönemine ait Ulusal Girdi-Çıktı Tabloları (NIOTs) kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre BRIC ülkelerinde yurtiçi nihai talep ekonominin önemli bir dinamiğidir. İmalat sanayide ise Çin hariç yurtiçi nihai talep daha baskındır. Toplam ekonomi ile karşılaştırıldığında yabancı katma değer imalat sanayinde daha yüksektir. Bir diğer önemli bulgu ise 2008-2009 küresel finansal kriz döneminde yurtdışı nihai talep ve yabancı katma değer azalırken, yurtiçi nihai talep ve yurtiçi katma değer artmıştır. Bununla birlikte özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde sanayileşme ve kalkınma sürecinde talebin etkili bir dinamik olabilmesi için reel geliri artırıcı, talep çeşitliliğini ve orta sınıfın genişlemesini sağlayan politikalar üretilmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İmalat Sanayi, Girdi-Çıktı Modelleri, Talep Yanlı Yaklaşım, BRICS.

Kaynakça

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