DEMAND-SIDE PERSPECTIVE IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY OF BRIC COUNTRIES: A DEMAND DECOMPOSITION

Öz

Historically, demand has been an important dynamic for industrialization. Even so, in the industrialization policies, supply-side dynamics are considered and demand-side dynamics are ignored. However, for sustainable industrialization and growth, demand-side dynamics should be considered. In this context, the study aims to analyse how demand-side dynamics contribute to the economy and manufacturing industry. For this, demand decomposition was made in BRIC countries by using the Dutch method proposed by Kranendonk and Verbruggen (2005; 2008). The National Input-Output Tables (NIOTs) in the WIOD for the 2000-2014 period were used. According to the findings, domestic final demand is an important dynamic of the economy in BRIC countries. Similarly, in the manufacturing industry, excluding China, domestic final demand is more dominant. When compared to the total economy, foreign value added is higher in the manufacturing industry. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, domestic final demand and domestic value-added increased, while final foreign demand and foreign value-added decreased. Besides, especially in developing countries to demand to be an effective dynamic, policies that increase real income, provide demand diversity and expand the middle class should be produced.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Manufacturing Industry
• Input-Output Models
• Demand-side Perspective
• BRICS.

BRIC ÜLKELERİ İMALAT SANAYİNDE TALEP YANLI YAKLAŞIM: BİR TALEP AYRIŞTIRMASI

Öz

Tarihsel olarak, talep sanayileşme için önemli bir dinamik olmuştur. Buna rağmen sanayileşme politikalarında arz yanlı dinamikler dikkate alınmakta ve talep yanlı dinamikler eksik kalmaktadır. Ancak sürdürülebilir sanayileşme ve büyüme için talep dinamikleri de dikkate alınmalıdır. Bu çerçevede çalışmanın amacı, talep dinamiklerinin ekonomi ve imalat sanayide nasıl bir katkı sağladığını analiz etmektir. Çalışmanın amacı kapsamında, Kranendonk ve Verbruggen (2005; 2008) tarafından önerilen Hollanda yöntemi kullanılarak BRIC ülkelerinde talep ayrıştırması yapılmıştır. Bu ülkelerin WIOD’ta yer alan 2000-2014 dönemine ait Ulusal Girdi-Çıktı Tabloları (NIOTs) kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre BRIC ülkelerinde yurtiçi nihai talep ekonominin önemli bir dinamiğidir. İmalat sanayide ise Çin hariç yurtiçi nihai talep daha baskındır. Toplam ekonomi ile karşılaştırıldığında yabancı katma değer imalat sanayinde daha yüksektir. Bir diğer önemli bulgu ise 2008-2009 küresel finansal kriz döneminde yurtdışı nihai talep ve yabancı katma değer azalırken, yurtiçi nihai talep ve yurtiçi katma değer artmıştır. Bununla birlikte özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde sanayileşme ve kalkınma sürecinde talebin etkili bir dinamik olabilmesi için reel geliri artırıcı, talep çeşitliliğini ve orta sınıfın genişlemesini sağlayan politikalar üretilmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İmalat Sanayi
• Girdi-Çıktı Modelleri
• Talep Yanlı Yaklaşım
• BRICS.

Kaynakça

1. Amar, A., Landau, M. T., & Wikierman, A. (2016). Descomposicion alternativa de los componentes de la demanda agregada. Estudios Y Perspectivas(47), 1-29. https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/40476/S1600705_es.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
2. Aoki, M., & Yoshikawa, H. (2002). Demand saturation-creation and economic growth. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 48(2), 127-154. doi:10.1016/S0167-2681(01)00229-3
3. Aydoğuş, O. (2015). Girdi-Çıktı modellerine giriş (4. b.). Efil Yayınevi.
4. Bilir, H. (2019). Entelektüel bir iktisatçı: John Maynard Keynes. Dört Öge(16), 83-96. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/dortoge/issue/52314/643591
5. Casadella, V. (2018). Innovation systems in emerging economies: MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey). London: Wiley.
6. Chai, A. (2018). Household consumption patterns and the sectoral composition of growing economies: A review of the interlinkages. Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development Working Paper Series WP3/2018. Vienna: Unıted Nations Industrial Development Organization. https://www.unido.org/api/opentext/documents/download/10166980/unido-file-10166980
7. Cieślik, E., Biegańska, J., & Środa-Murawska, S. (2021). Central and Eastern European States from an international perspective: Economic potential and paths of participation in global value chains. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 57, 3587-3603. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2019.1602519
8. Clark, G. (2013). Fukaralığa veda: Dünyanın kısa iktisadi tarihi. İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi.

9. Desdoigts, A., & Jaramillo, F. (2009). Trade, demand spillovers, and industrialization: The emerging global middle class in perspective. Journal of International Economics, 79(2), 248-258. doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.07.008
10. Dökmen, G., & Vural, T. (2011). Maliye politikalarının Keynesyen olmayan etkileri: Türkiye örneği. Maliye Dergisi(161), 118-132. https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/2019/09/007.pdf
11. Duarte, M. (2018). Manufactured goods consumption, relative prices and productivity. Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development Working Paper Series WP 6/2018. Vienna: United Nations Industrial Development Organization. https://www.unido.org/api/opentext/documents/download/10307933/unido-file-10307933
12. Easterly, W. (2000). The middle class consensus and economic development. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2346. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18849
13. Escaith, H. (2016). Aggregate demand, vertical specialization and growth accounting. Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, 7(3), 1-20. doi:10.1142/S1793993316500162
14. Felipe, J., & Mehta, A. (2016). Deindustrialization? A global perspective. Economics Letters, 149, 148-151. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2016.10.038
15. Fine, B., & Leopold, E. (1990). Consumerism and the industrial revolution. Social History, 15(2), 151-179. doi:10.1080/03071029008567764
16. Fisunoğlu, M., & Tan, B. K. (2009). Keynes Devrimi ve Keynesyen iktisat. Ekonomik Yakalaşım, 20(70), 31-60. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5455/ey.10680
17. Foellmi, R., & Zweimüller , J. (2006). Income distribution and demand-induced ınnovations . The Review of Economic Studies, 73(4), 941-960. doi:10.1111/j.1467-937X.2006.00403.x
18. Francois, J., & Kaplan, S. (1996). Aggregate demand shifts, income distribution, and the Linder hypothesis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(2), 244-250. doi:10.2307/2109926
19. Goldar, B., Das, D. K., Das, P. C., & Gupta, N. (2020). Domestic versus imported contesnts in exports: The case of Indias's merchandise trade. Journal of South Asian Development, 15(1), 62-96. doi:10.1177/0973174120922451
20. Guisan, M.-C., & Exposito, P. (2015). Manufacturıng and development in countrıes and areas of asia-pacific, 2000-2010. Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, 15(2), 203-208. https://www.usc.gal/economet/reviews/eers15215.pdf
21. Gülşen, M. A., & Gölçek, A. G. (2019). Küresel Keynesçilik yaklaşımı bağlamında küresel maliye politikaları. Fiscaoeconomia, 3(3), 98-109. doi:10.25295/fsecon.2019.03.007
22. Haider, A. (2018). The multiplier effects of manufacturing consumption. Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development Working Paper Series WP 10/2018. Vienna: United Nations Industrial Development Organization. https://www.unido.org/api/opentext/documents/download/10300559/unido-file-10300559
23. Hoekstra, R., & Helm, R. v. (2010). Attributing GDP growth of the euro area to final demand categories. International Input-Otput Conference (s. 1-28). Sydney, Australia: Statistics Netherlands. https://www.iioa.org/conferences/18th/papers/files/34_20100429011_CBS_HoekstraandvanderHelm.pdf
24. Hoekstra, R., Berg, A., & Hoekema, F. (2006). Attributing the Euro area gdp growth rate to final demand components. Statistics Netherlands . http://www.rutgerhoekstra.com/publications/2006_Hoekstra-vdBerg-Hoekema-Attributing%20the%20Euro%20Area%20GDP%20Growth%20Rate.pdf
25. Horrell, S. (1996). Home demand and British industrialization. The Journal of Economic History, 56(3), 561-604. doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050700016946
26. Huang, Y., & Khan, J. (2022). Has the ,nformation and communication technology sector become the engine of China's economic growth? Review of Development Economics, 26(1), 510-533. doi:10.1111/rode.12821
27. Hummels, D., Ishii, J., & Yi, K.-M. (2001). The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade. Journal of International Economics, 54, 75-96. doi:10.1016/S0022-1996(00)00093-3
28. Hummels, D., Rapoport, D., & Yi, K.-M. (1998, June). Vertical specialization and the changing nature of world trade. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 4(2), 79-99. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1023939
29. Jangam, B. P., & Rath, B. N. (2021). Do global value chains enhance or slog economic growth? Applied Economics, 53(36), 4148-4165. doi:10.1080/00036846.2021.1897076
30. Jenkis, R. (2015). Sanayileşme ve dünya ekonomisi. F. Şenses (Ed.) içinde, Kalkınma iktisadının yükselişi ve gerilemesi (s. 211-253). İletişim Yayınları.
31. Kaldor, N. (1966). Causes of the slow rate of growth in te United Kingdom. Cambridge University Press.
32. Kaldor, N. (1967). Causes of The Slow Rate of Economic Growth in The United Kingdom: An Inaugural Lecture by Nicholas Kaldor. Cambrigde University Press.
33. Kharas, H., & Gertz , G. (2010). The new global middle class: A crossover from West to East. C. Li (Ed.) içinde, China’s emerging middle class: Beyond economic transformation (s. 32-54). Washington: The Brookings Institution.
34. Kordalska, A., & Olczyk, M. (2021). Linkages between services and manufacturing as a new channel for GVC development: Evidence from CEE countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 58, 125-137. doi:10.1016/j.strueco.2021.05.003
35. Kranendonk, H., & Verbruggen, J. P. (2005). How to determine the contributions of domestic demand and exports to economic growth? Dutch versus international method. CPB Memorandum No:159. Netherlands: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. https://www.cpb.nl/sites/default/files/publicaties/download/memo129.pdf
36. Kranendonk, H., & Verbruggen , J. (2008). Decomposition of GDP growth in some European countries and the United States. De Economist, 156(3), 295-306. doi:10.1007/s10645-008-9095-0
37. Lamonica, G. R., Salvati, L., & Carlucci, M. (2020). Vertical specialization across the world: Evidence from the world input-output table. Rivista Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, 74(1), 17-28. https://ideas.repec.org/a/ite/iteeco/200101.html
38. Lee, J.-W. (1994). Industrializatıon and the formation of the new new middle class in Korea. Korea Journal of Population and Development, 23(1), 77-96. https://s-space.snu.ac.kr/bitstream/10371/85234/1/5.industrıalızatıon_and_the_formation_of_the_new_middle_class_in_Korea%5djung-whan%20lee.pdf
39. Leontief, W. (1986). Input-output economics (2 b.).Oxford University Press.
40. Los, B., Marcel P. Timmer, & Vries, G. (2015b). How global are global value chains? A new approach to measure international fragmentation. Journal of Regional Scıence, 55(1), 66-92. doi:10.1111/jors.12121
41. Los, B., Timmer, M. P., & Vries, G. J. (2015a). How important are exports for job growth in China? A demand side analysis. Journal of Comparative Economics, 43(1), 19-32. doi:10.1016/j.jce.2014.11.007
42. Macedo, A. D., & Lavopa, A. (2018). Tracing incomes generated by domestic and foreign demand for manufacturing . Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development Working Paper Series WP 4 | 2018. Vienna: United Nations Industrial Development Organization. https://www.unido.org/api/opentext/documents/download/10377550/unido-file-10377550
43. Macedo, A. D., Delera, M., & Lavopa, A. (2018). Industrial development and the creation of affordable variety. Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development Working Paper Series WP 5/2018. Vienna: United Nations Industrial Development Organization. https://www.unido.org/api/opentext/documents/download/10376321/unido-file-10376321
44. Matsuyama, K. (2002). The rise of mass consumption societies. Journal of Political Economy, 110(5), 1035-1070. doi:10.1086/341873
45. Mikulic, D. (2019). Metodološke osnove za dekompoziciju bruto domaýeg proizvoda na sastavnice finalne potražnje i primjena na Hrvatsko gospodarstvo. Ekonomski Pregled, 70(3), 451-476. doi:10.32910/ep.70.3.5
46. Mikulic, D., & Lovrincevic, Z. (2018). The ımport content of croatian economic sectors and final demand. Economic Research-ekonomska Istrazivanja, 31(1), 2003-2023. doi: 10.1080/1331677X.2018.1480967
47. Miller, R. E., & Blair, P. D. (2009). Input-Output analysis foundation and extensions (2 b.). Cambridge University Press.
48. Mokyr, J. (1977). Demand vs. supply in the Industrial Revolution. The Journal of Economic History, 37(4), 981-1008. doi:10.1017/S0022050700094778
49. Moneta, A., & Stepanova, E. (2018). Characterizing manufacturing Engel curves around the world. Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development Working Paper Series WP 14/2018. Vienna: United Nations Industrial Development Organization. https://www.unido.org/api/opentext/documents/download/10166306/unido-file-10166306
50. Murphy, K. M., Shleifer , A., & Vishny, R. (1988). Income distribution, market s,ze, and industrialization. NBER workıng paper serıes Working Paper No. 2709. Cambridge, MA 02138 : National Bureau Of Economic Research. doi:10.3386/w2709
51. Nassif, A., Feijo, C., & Araújo, E. (2016). Structural change, catching up and falling behind in the BRICS: A comparative analysis based on trade pattern and Thirlwall's Law. PSL Quarterly Review, 69(278), 373-421. doi:10.13133/2037-3643_69.279_4
52. Naudé, W., Szirmai, A., & Haraguchi, N. (2015). Structural change and industrial development in the BRICS. Oxford University Press. doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198725077.001.0001
53. Neumann, R., & Tabrizy, S. S. (2021). Exchange rates and trade balances: Effects of intra-industry trade and vertical specialization. Open Economies Review, 32, 613-647. doi:10.1007/s11079-020-09612-4
54. Pahl, S., & Timmer, M. P. (2019). Patterns of vertical specialisation in trade: Long-run evidence for 91 countries. Review of World Economics, 155, 459-486. doi:10.1007/s10290-019-00352-3
55. Palma, J. G. (2014). De-industrialisation, ‘premature’ de-industrialisation and the Dutch-Disease. Revista NECAT, 7-23. doi:10.20430/ete.v86i344.970.
56. Pamuk, S. (2008). Globalization, industrialization and changing politics in Turkey. New perspectives on Turkey, 38(38), 267-273. doi:10.1017/S0896634600005008
57. Pieper, U. (2000). Deindustrialisation and the social and economic sustainability nexus in developing countries: Cross‐country evidence on productivity and employment. The Journal of Development Studies, 36(4), 66-99. doi:10.1080/00220380008422638
58. Prete, D. D., Giovannetti, G., & Marvasi, E. (2018). Global value chains: New evidence for North Africa. International Economics, 153, 42-54. doi:10.1016/j.inteco.2017.03.002
59. Purwono, R., Esquivias, M. A., Sugiharti, L., Heriqbaldi, U., Handoyo, R. D., & Airlangga, U. (2020). Value chains, production networks and regional integration: The case of regional integration. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 54(1), 135-151. doi:10.17576/JEM-2020-5401-10
60. Rodrik, D. (2006). Industrial development: Stylized facts and policies. U.N.-DESA Working Papers. USA. https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/industrial-development.pdf
61. Rodrik, D. (2009). Tek ekonomi çok reçete: Küreselleşme, kurumlar ve ekonomik büyüme. (N. Domaniç, Çev.). Eflatun Yayınevi.
62. Rodrik, D. (2016). Premature deindustrialization. Journal of Economic Growth, 21, 1-33. doi:10.1007/s10887-015-9122-3
63. Santiago, F., Vértesy, D., & Weiss, M. (2018). Manufacturing development in catching up countries: locating demand-driven policy interventions from a long-term perspective. Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development Working Paper Series WP 18/2018. Vienna: United Nations Industrial Development Organization. https://www.unido.org/api/opentext/documents/download/10379758/unido-file-10379758
64. Saviotti, P. P. (2002). Variety, growth and demand. A. McMeekin, K. Green, M. Tomlinson, & V. Walsh (Ed.) içinde, Innovation by demand: An interdisciplinary approach to the study of demand and its role in innovation (s. 41-55). Great Britain: Manchester University Press.
65. Saviotti, P. P., & Frenken , K. (2008). Export variety and the economic performance of countries. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 18, 201-218. doi:10.1007/s00191-007-0081-5
66. Saviotti, P. P., & Pyka , A. (2004). Economic development by the creation of new sectors. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 14, 1-35. doi:10.1007/s00191-003-0179-3
67. Saviotti, P.-P., & Pyka, A. (2013). The co-evolution of innovation, demand and growth. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 26(8), 689-718. doi:10.1080/10438599.2013.768492
68. Schmitz, H. (2015). Azgelişmiş ülkelerde sanayileşme stratejileri: Tarihsel deneyimlerden çıkarılacak bazı dersler. F. Şenses (Ed.) içinde, Kalkınma iktisadının yükselişi ve gerilemesi (s. 255-284). İletişim Yayınları.
69. Solaz, M. (2018). Value added and participation in global value chains: The case of Spain. The World Economy, 41, 2804-2827. doi:10.1111/twec.12641
70. Şen, H., & Kaya, A. (2015). Ekonomik krizlerin değişmeyen imdatçısı: Maliye politikası. Sosyoekonomi, 23(23), 55-86. doi:10.17233/se.96843
71. Stiglitz, J. E. (2017). Industrial policy, learning, and development. J. Page, & F. Tarp (Dü) içinde, The practice of industrial policy: Government–business coordination in Africa and East Asia (s. 23-39). United Kingdom: Oxford University Press. doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198796954.001.0001
72. Taymaz, E., & Voyvoda, E. (2017). Yapısal dönüşüm, sanayileşme ve sanayi politikaları: Küresel eğilimlerden türkiye ekonomisine kısa bir gezinti. M. Koyuncu, H. Mıhcı, & A. E. Yeldan (Ed) içinde, Geçmişten geleceğe türkiye ekonomisi Fikret Şenses'e armağan (s. 11-44). İletişim Yayınları.
73. Thirlwall, A. P. (1983). Growth and development with special reference to developing economies. London: Macmillan Education Ltd. doi:10.1007/978-1-349-06713-8
74. Timmer, M. P., Detzenbacher, E., Los, B., Stehrer, R., & Vries, G. J. (2015). An illustrated user guide to the World Input-Output Database: The case of global automotive production. Review of International Economics, 23(3), 575-605. doi:10.1111/roie.12178
75. Timmer, M. P., Los, B., Stehrer, R., & Vries, G. (2016). An Anatomy of the Global Trade Slowdown based on the WIOD 2016 Release. GGDC research memorandum 162. The Netherlands: University of Groningen, Groningen Growth and Development Centre. https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/valuechain/wiod/
76. Töngör, Ü., & Taymaz, E. (2017). Türkiye imalat sanayiinde firma büyümesi ve istihdam. M. Koyuncu, H. Mıhcı, & E. Yeldan içinde, Geçmişten Geleceğe türkiye ekonomisi Fikret Şenses'e armağan (s. 75-94). İletişim Yayınları.
77. Tregenna, F. (2013). Deindustrialization and reindustrialization. Adam Szirmai, W. Naudé, & L. Alcorta (Ed.) içinde, Pathways to Industrialization in the Twenty-First Century (s. 76-101). Oxford University Press.
78. Tregenna, F. (2015). Deindustrialisation, structural change and sustainable economic growth. UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series 2015-032. The Netherlands: Maastricht Economic and social Research institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU‐MERIT). file:///C:/Users/sahin/Downloads/wp2015-032.pdf
79. UNIDO. (2017). Demand for manufacturing: Driving inclusive and sustainable industrial development. Industrial Development Report 2018. Vienna: United Nations Industrial Development Organization. https://www.unido.org/sites/default/files/files/2017-11/IDR2018_FULL%20REPORT.pdf
80. WIOD. (2022). Groningen Growth and Development Centre. World Input-Output Database: https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/valuechain/wiod/
81. Wu, S., Yalin Lei, & Li Li. (2015). Evaluation of the contributions of four components of gross domestic product in various regions in China. PLoS ONE , 10(2), 1-17. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0121594
82. Xiao, H., Meng, B., Ye, J., & Li, S. (2020). Are global vlaue chains truly global? Economic System Research, 32(4), 540-564. doi:10.1080/09535314.2020.1783643
83. Yi, J., & Liu, M. (2019). Relating vertical specialization to indigenous technological capability growth: The Case of China. The Chinese Economy, 52(6), 449-463. doi:10.1080/10971475.2019.1617951